Last Updated: August 22nd at 4:15 pm ET
Our fantasy draft is not going to go perfectly. We’re going to get sniped, we’re going to panic when on the clock, and our best-laid plans will go awry.
But we can still dream. These are my favorite players in each round, while taking roster construction into account, as of Aug. 20. Note that I am using the Yahoo Average Draft Position (ADP) we have on our site in an effort to more closely replicate a “home league” setting. However, I’m also being realistic — Rashee Rice has an ADP of 92.6 on Yahoo, but I know he’ll go much higher in most of your leagues.
For more help with your draft:
* Levitan’s Favorite Fliers (beyond ADP of 120)
* Levitan’s 2024 Draft Strategy
* Our rankings
* Exploiting the Default Ranks: Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper
* Silva’s Shy Away 30
ROUND 1
Ideal: Get one of the top three RBs — In a normal redraft league, I expect to find some insane WR values in the middle and middle/late portions of the draft. So my top three in these pure home league formats includes Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall. In a vacuum, I do prefer Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb to Bijan and Breece. But given the way home leagues set up this year, I want the RB first. For more on that, check out this, this, or this. The big advantage of getting a top-three or top-five pick this season is accentuated by how flat the Round 2/3 players are in projection.
Runner-up: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions or A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles — If I can’t land one of the five above, I am fine settling for ARSB or AJB. I prefer them to the Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor Round 1 plays, even though my strategy this year is to be RB-heavy early. If I do go WR in Round 1, I will be taking a RB in Round 2.
ROUND 2
Ideal: Kyren Williams, RB, Rams — Yes, Blake Corum was drafted to back up Kyren Williams. But that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly going from 90-100% of the RB touches to 50%. I still expect Kyren to be a workhorse, as Sean McVay annually tries to ride one back. That’s not just Todd Gurley or Kyren; that applied at various times to Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, and other dusty backs. Note that if Jahmyr Gibbs does slip to Round 2, I would take him over Kyren.
Update August 28: Given the recent punt return news and comments from Jordan Rodrigue, I’d consider De’Von Achane or Josh Jacobs over Kyren Williams.
Runner-up: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs — The setup for Pacheco can’t get much better. Most notably, Jerick McKinnon remains on the street. McKinnon played 20.8 snaps per game last season, including 10.8 on third downs. He also played a ton in the red zone, getting three targets inside the 10-yard line. Pacheco showed he can soak up that role in the playoffs, and is boosted by Brandon Thorn’s No. 4 offensive line.
Update August 28: The Chiefs added pass-down back Samaje Perine. This isn’t a huge hit to Pacheco — Perine couldn’t even stick on the Broncos — but it’s a concern for his target floor/ceiling. I’d consider De’Von Achane over Pacheco.
ROUND 3
Ideal: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles – Josh Allen’s Yahoo ADP is eight spots ahead of Hurts’. And while I don’t think Hurts is any kind of bargain here in Round 3, the quarterbacks will all go far too high. Hurts, at least, is going roughly where he should.
From a roster construction standpoint, starting RB-RB-QB is scary. But I am very confident I can hammer wide receiver through the middle rounds and still have one of the best WR rooms in my league. Note that if I’m picking at the end of Round 3 and Hurts is gone, this construction can certainly work with Lamar Jackson.
Runner-up 1: Drake London, WR, Falcons — This is where we start to pick off the high-ceiling, alpha WRs who slide too far. If Drake London was drafted by the Rams or Lions, he’d be a household name by now. Instead, he was subjected to horrific QB play and prehistoric offensive scheming from Arthur Smith. Now Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson and Kirk Cousins are in Atlanta to elevate this entire offense.
Runner-up 2: Nico Collins, WR, Texans — Yes, Nico has stiff competition for targets with the arrival of Stef Diggs and Tank Dell (leg) healthy. But there’s also a lot of room for C.J. Stroud to throw more. The Texans were just 22nd in neutral-situation first-down throw rate last season. And just 19th in pass rate over expectation. I expect Nico to be the alpha, every-down player in this WR room. If I miss on both of the above, Cooper Kupp is a strong consolation prize.
ROUND 4
Ideal: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs – At this point, it looks like Rashee Rice’s suspension will be short or nonexistent in 2024. And while he’s certainly facing a big increase in target competition via Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, Rice’s role as the underneath hammer for Patrick Mahomes is very profitable. Defenses will continue to sell out to stop Mahomes’ deep ball, leaving Rice plenty of room to operate — this time as a full-time player all season.
Runner-up 1: Malik Nabers, WR, Giants — Nabers’ ADP on Yahoo is currently 64.9, the middle of the fifth round. But given all the buzz, I’d expect him to go higher, and grabbing him in Round 4 is strong. If the Nabers hype gets too nuts and he goes in Round 3, DeVonta Smith is a fine consolation.
Runner-up 2: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins — I want to continue to hammer these mispriced WRs through the middle rounds. Waddle’s per-route stats last season were extremely strong. Yes, he’s the WR2 on his own team, but this offense is extremely concentrated.
ROUND 5
Ideal: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals — It’s a clean setup with Tyler Boyd gone, Joe Burrow healthy, and Tee Higgins in a contract year. Very easy bet to make at this point in the draft — strong talent at the WR position attached to an elite pocket-passing QB on a throw-first offense.
Runner-up: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills — The Bills, desperate to get Josh Allen better weaponry, traded up in the 2023 draft to select Kincaid 25th overall. That wasn’t for his blocking; the Bills need Kincaid to be their alpha target earner. He showed signs of that as a pure rookie competing with Stefon Diggs last season. Despite only playing on 62% of the snaps. Kincaid earned a 17% target share and 24% targets per route run. With Diggs gone and a ton of question marks at the WR position, expect Kincaid to be the featured pass catcher for Josh Allen.
ROUND 6
Ideal: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs: — I don’t want to overthink this one. We have the fastest WR ever playing with Patrick Mahomes. The difference between Worthy and other rookie flameouts with the Chiefs is that Worthy is actually a strong route runner. He’s a receiver, not just a burner. Also, the Chiefs appear very committed to using him in a full-time role right away… not easing him in like Rashee Rice was last season. Worthy’s ADP is an absurd 113.6, so perhaps you can get him later. But against more competent drafters, I’m fine in Round 6.
Runner-up: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens — It seems a lot of people are out on Zay Flowers. I’d agree that the manufactured touches and return of Mark Andrews are concerns, but that’s all baked into his 69.0 ADP on Yahoo. Flowers is the easy Year 2 leap candidate as the focal point for Todd Monken’s explosive scheme.
ROUND 7
Ideal: Rome Odunze, WR, Bears — Odunze’s Yahoo ADP is 101.3, the ninth round. But he’s performed so well this preseason, I suspect we need to grab him here. And that’s certainly fine. According to many scouts, Rome wasn’t that much different of a prospect than Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. But the target competition has left the fantasy community far lower on Rome. That’s not too much of a worry; it would not shock me at all if Rome simply outplays Keenan Allen early on and is featured by midseason.
Runner-up: Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins — Yes, Mostert is 32 and facing competition from Year 2 freak De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright. But that’s all baked into his price. The guy who scored 21 touchdowns last season in arguably the NFL’s most explosive offense is available in Round 7 — and once again enters the season as the starter.
ROUND 8
Ideal: Chase Brown, RB, Bengals — The “barbell” approach at RB continues. I ideally will have two RBs in my first three picks, then wait as long as I can to grab some high-upside ones in this range of the draft. Brown certainly fits the bill as an exciting, explosive RB who showed an ability to be a workhorse in college. He’ll share time with Zack Moss, but we have to leave room for Brown to get better in the passing game and earn his team’s trust. He has a higher ceiling than Moss.
Runner-up: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos — The Audric Estime hype this offseason got absurdly out of control. The real story is Javonte was a shell of himself in 2023 as he was coming off a multi-ligament knee tear. He’s since lost weight and seized control of the Broncos’ backfield. I actually expect the Broncos to mostly use two backs on game days this season — Javonte as the lead and Jaleel McLaughlin in a change-of-pace role. In Sean Payton’s offense, RBs always have an extremely high target rate. That won’t change given Bo Nix’s style and Denver’s lack of weaponry.
ROUND 9
Ideal: Caleb Williams, QB, Bears — If you don’t go for the Jalen Hurts play I outlined above, and don’t find any other QBs slipping, I’m more than fine rolling into the season with Caleb Williams as my starter. A No. 1 overall pick has never had this strong of weaponry as a rookie, and Caleb’s rushing upside is a bit underrated. Perhaps Jayden Daniels has a higher ceiling thanks to his more Lamar-esque rushing ability, but Williams is more likely to have a better season in base outcomes. The OL, WR, and TE play on the Bears is far better, and Caleb is the far better QB prospect as a thrower.
Runner-up: Jameson Williams, WR, Lions — The Lions let go of Josh Reynolds, didn’t replace him, and have found no real WR3. That’s fine with them, because they believe Jameson Williams has fully turned the corner. Despite injuries and a gambling suspension, Williams is still just 23 years old and the only Lion that wins vertically. I do prefer Jameson in half-PPR over full-PPR, as ARSB/LaPorta/Gibbs are going to eat up a lot of the volume. Williams is an efficiency play.
ROUND 10:
Ideal: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars — Another rookie WR getting overshadowed by the bigger names. Thomas Jr. is staring at an every-down role with competent QB play and not overly stiff target competition. At this point in the draft, I’m swinging for as much upside as I can. Perhaps Josh Palmer or Romeo Doubs are better picks on base outcomes, but that’s not how I win my league. I want to try to hit big from Round 10 on, or just move on via the waiver wire. Note that if Jaxon Smith-Njigba lasts until Round 10 (his Yahoo ADP is 118), I’d prefer him. But I suspect he’ll be going higher in most leagues.
Runner-up: Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings — Vibes around Jordan Addison are really bad right now, which is why he lasts so late. Sam Darnold is the quarterback for 2024, Addison has a court date coming up, and he sprained his ankle in camp. But Darnold has never had a system/weapons like this before, Addison’s court case is unlikely to be resolved this calendar year, and the ankle sprain isn’t considered serious. Prior to all those issues, Addison was a prime Year 2 breakout candidate after a strong Year 1 showing. I would’ve taken him in Round 7 or 8. So to get a multi-round discount is really strong.
