Last Updated: December 4th at 9:48pm ET
Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks, it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
I made these bets on Friday, December 4th. I only look at DraftKings and Fanduel lines, if you shop more there will be softer options.
2019 Record (all individual game player props): 50-36, +$963
2020 Week 12: 2-3, -136
2020 Overall Record: 38-21, +$1489
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop and risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Kendrick Bourne receiving yards
Line: 28.5 yards (FanDuel)
Projection: 19.5 yards
Bet: Under (-109)
Notes: This line does not reflect the return of both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Furthermore, Jordan Reed is playing on pass downs with a high targets per route run.
2. Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards
Line: 24.5 yards (FanDuel)
Projection: 39.2 yards
Bet: Over (-109)
Notes: I want to be low on Taysom Hill, but this has gone too far. We can throw out last week’s outlier game against the QB-less Broncos and understand Taysom will have to throw a ton more against a Falcons team getting Julio Jones back.
3. Henry Ruggs receiving yards
Line: 29.5 yards (FanDuel)
Projection: 43.9 yards
Bet: Over (-109)
Note: I want to be high on a Raiders bounce-back after they laid a massive 5-turnover egg against the Falcons last week. Now they get a Jets team which is incapable of stopping anyone. The Jets are dead last in our DvP metrics against WRs.
4. Carson Wentz passing yards
Line: 237.5 yards (DraftKings)
Projection: 231.6 yards
Bet: Under (-109)
Note: I almost never bet something this close in projection. But note that the projection is not factoring in the chances Wentz gets benched for Jalen Hurts Sunday and isn’t around for potential garbage time.
