I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
DraftKings really blew the prices on Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, and James Robinson. And then surprise COVID scratches to Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler came. It created a strange slate where we had far more salary space than we needed.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Chris Godwin (ACL), Mike Evans (hamstring), Breshad Perriman (COVID) were out. Tom Brady got Antonio Brown to New England when no one wanted him and welcomed AB into his home in Tampa. Brown’s target floor and ceiling was massive for any price – let alone $4900.
* The Jets are one of the NFL’s historically bad rush defenses. Meanwhile, Carlos Hyde is on IR and Urban Meyer is gone. James Robinson was set up for 20+ touches against the Jets at just $5900 – he was underpriced by at least $700 here.
* Given all the strong value on the slate, it was easy to get to Cooper Kupp. And that made him a must. The Vikings have struggled all year to defend WRs, and Kupp is getting double-digit targets almost every time in this spot. Even at $9100, I was never passing on Kupp in the context of this slate.
* Justin Jackson isn’t Austin Ekeler (out, COVID), but he’s a versatile back with juice. And he was facing the Texans. So while I thought Josh Kelley and perhaps Larry Rountree would mix in a little, this was not a spot to overthink. Good player, plays in pass game, plays in one of the league’s best offenses, facing one of the league’s worst defenses, for $4200.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I was fine with any of Josh Johnson, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, or Josh Allen at QB. The Johnson savings would have been useful on a slate we actually needed it, but in this slate it was not necessary. I felt better about Stafford’s game environment than Hurts’, and couldn’t get the money for Herbert or Allen.
* Josh Palmer was almost a must. The Chargers were without Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Austin Ekeler, and Donald Parham. That left the talented Palmer as an every-down receiver with very little target competition (other than Keenan Allen) at $3300 against the Texans. The only reason Palmer wasn’t a must was because we didn’t need the savings, and because Tyreek Hill became so strong once Travis Kelce (COVID) was ruled out.
* Before the Mike Williams news, I had a team I thought was a stone-cold lock. It included Ronald Jones at running back, Justin Jefferson at wide receiver (over Josh Palmer) and Cole Kmet at tight end. But after the Williams news, I thought the Palmer side was slightly better. So it left me with a ton of money to spend.
With all the Bucs absences (see above), I thought this was a ceiling spot for Rob Gronkowski. Obviously the floor is too low for $6200, but I thought he could really separate from the Cole Kmet and CJ Uzomah types – and break the slate. So I didn’t mind overpaying for Gronk and taking the elite Palmer value.
At the same time, going from Ronald Jones to Alexander Mattison was a slight upgrade. Not $1700 worth, but Mattison has a clear pass-game role. RoJo, on the other hand, was not going to play on any pass downs or 2-minute drill snaps.
* Given how much extra money we had on this slate, I actually thought about playing Eagles D ($3600) or Chargers ($3400). But as usual, I ended up spending as little as possible. There were two really good options – Falcons at $2600 against Tim Boyle, or Bengals at $2800 against Josh Johnson. I went with the one that fit.
Week 16 Results
It is certainly not my style to pay up at tight end. And it’s definitely not my style to pay up at tight end for an old. But this was such a ridiculous slate with value, I do think it was right. I’ll live with the results here – unlike last week when there were a couple clear mistakes. If James Robinson had stayed healthy, things would have looked much different.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 124.86 points, won 70.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 92.88 points, won 5.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 151.52 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 104.92 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 187.08 points, won 82.7% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 147.98 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 163.38 points, won 88.1% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 135.62 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 127.54 points, won 81.4% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 152.74 points, won 90.0% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 109.02 points, won 55.3% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 117.32 points, won 80.1% of head-to-heads
Week 13: 180.08 points, won 86.9% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 127.30 points, won 51.4% of head-to-heads
Week 15: 119.58 points, won 36.8% of head-to-heads
Week 16: 130.88 points, won 43.9% of head-to-heads
