I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This slate featured no viable punts at tight end and an excellent expensive play in Trey McBride. That tightened the slate to the point where we had to make some tough decisions – including evaluating whether we had to choose between Christian McCaffrey and Ja’Marr Chase.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Regular readers know I am typically trying to spend as little as reasonable at tight end in DraftKings cash. But this week (and last) was an exception due to this elite Trey McBride role. The usage projected to get even better this week with Marvin Harrison out, plus a very good matchup against an injury-ravaged 49ers defense. I perhaps would have looked at a McBride fade if there was anything viable in the cheap range, but there simply wasn’t.
* Samaje Perine’s absence (ankle) has an outsized impact on Chase Brown. It returned him to the role we saw late last season, when Brown was pushing 90%+ of the snaps weekly. It also meant that on all pass downs and hurry-up, Brown would be in there for checkdowns from Joe Flacco. At just $5700, that’s a wildly strong role.
* Yes, Jaylen Warren projected to lose the pass-down snaps to Kenneth Gainwell. But when you’re playing the Bengals, it’s still a net win. Our DvP metrics had the Bengals inflating opponent RB scoring by a whopping 12.6%, most in the NFL. So even though I don’t typically like playing Arthur Smith players in cash, the talent/matchup at $6100 was too strong.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I knew I had to punt at QB. I considered JJ McCarthy ($5200), Jacoby Brissett ($4900), and Davis Mills ($4500). McCarthy projected best and I agreed he had the best ceiling due to weaponry, rushing ability, and matchup. But I worried about his floor given what we’ve seen from him this season. So I was fine going down to Brissett, who also allowed me to save a much-needed $300 and projected for a ton more dropbacks here. I was merely trying to get 15 points from QB and move on, given the slate context.
* I don’t like to pay $5500 for WRs like Wan’Dale Robinson because his horrific yards per target are a huge red flag. But ceiling can be generated from raw volume – especially when that volume comes from someone as aggressive as Jameis Winston. So with both Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton out, there was plenty of room for Robinson to get double-digit targets here. I would’ve been fine going down to Jauan Jennings ($5100) in this spot if the $400 got me something I really wanted.
* No-brainer spot to pay down at D/ST here. We had Jeffrey Simmons back for the Titans D and they were at home against Davis Mills. A classic “close your eyes and be glad you’re only paying $2300 for defense” play.
* The last 3v3 I looked at was really the story of the slate. It was Rico Dowdle, Ja’Marr Chase, and Michael Wilson. Or Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, and Parker Washington.
My first instinct went something like “Christian McCaffrey was put on earth to be played in DraftKings cash.” His usage and skill just fits so perfectly in a full-PPR format, and his consistency is among the league’s best. I think fading him at $9000 in a good spot is typically wrong.
But I thought this 3v3 was really close because I really liked the ceiling of Dowdle and Chase – whereas the ceiling on Jennings and Washington was tough to see. I also didn’t love passing on Wilson as the No. 1 WR for Brissett at just $3800. Additionally, we had the Rico side 1.7 points ahead in projection. And I didn’t want to have Washington on both DK and FD, with Jakobi Meyers’ role set to grow in Jacksonville. So I ended up going with the Dowdle/Chase/Wilson side at the last minute.
Week 11 Results
I think I got pretty fortunate here. Rico Dowdle really struggled and Ja’Marr Chase got absolutely smoked by Christian McCaffrey. But the conviction on Jacoby Brissett over JJ McCarthy made a huge difference. And then getting a 15-185-0 from Michael Wilson is obviously absurd. The sun-run in cash continues.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 153.92 points, won 56.8% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 186.04 points, won 94.9% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 95.48 points, won 11.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 179.04 points, won 86.8% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 189.72 points, won 86.4% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 154.88 points, won 75.7% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 149.62 points, won 90.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 160.44 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 158.18 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 120.2 points, won 42.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 137.32 points, won 58.8% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 94.9 points, won 46.7% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
