I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a unique Week 18. Normally we get some #TeamPreseason guys set up for big roles, such as a Darwin Thompson/Donald Parham situation from a couple years ago. Other times we get clear-cut smashes at RB because the starter is resting. But this year, oddly, my player pool was very small.
MY MUST PLAYS
* The Seahawks had to win in order to have a chance at the playoffs. That meant I had zero workload concerns on Kenneth Walker, who had 49 carries across the previous two games. Walker’ talent, matchup, and volume at just $6400 was a lock.
* Given it was the final game of the season, I did not expect veteran Cordarrelle Patterson to cut into Tyler Allgeier as much as he had been. Allgeier also had some incentives as Amico outlined here, and the Falcons likely wanted to get him a over 1,000 rush yards – thrusting him into the Rookie of the Year race. So given that the Bucs had no motivation and were therefore likely to play backups for much of the game, it was a really good spot for the hyper-efficient Allgeier at just $5600.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only realistically considered Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen at quarterback. It was not a slate we needed to save money with something like Russ Wilson or Geno Smith.
As for Hurts vs. Allen, I would have played Hurts under normal circumstances. It would clearly have been a better matchup and game environment for him. However, given that Hurts was coming off the shoulder injury and the Giants were playing their JV team, I thought there was a smidge more safety in Allen.
That said, I had teams in on Sunday morning which needed the $200 and therefore had Hurts. And I would have been totally fine with that.
* I looked at teams which played Jonathan Williams over Najee Harris at the final RB spot. However, I thought there was some chance Jaret Patterson would simply fill the Brian Robinson role and Williams would stick in that Antonio Gibson-esque role. And while that is certainly fine at $4300, the Commanders were facing Dallas’ starting defense with Sam Howell at quarterback.
So I felt much better about spending up for the goal-line and pass-game role of Najee Harris in a must-win for Pittsburgh. The matchup (home vs. CLE) and the motivation lined up nicely there.
* The tight ends I considered were Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, and Albert Okwuegbunam. All three projected to run a route on nearly all of their QB’s dropbacks and all three are excellent in the pass game. In these spots where it’s close, I typically like to play the cheapest guy at tight end. That was Albert O ($2900), who clearly was freed from Nathaniel Hackett’s doghouse and was now facing what I expected to be mostly Chargers backups.
* Wide receiver was really tough this week. Despite the receiving yardage record talk, I didn’t think Justin Jefferson was in play with the weakly motivated Vikings talking about resting starters. I did have Ja’Marr Chase in for most of Sunday morning, but thought Stef Diggs was a bit better once we found out the Ravens were laying down. The Patriots, of course, had 10/10 motivation to stay fighting against the Bills.
Ideally I would have played both Diggs and Chase, but I didn’t think playing Jonathan Williams and going down at QB to Joe Burrow was worth that.
* I would have loved to get to Courtland Sutton or Drake London over Rashid Shaheed. The previous two guys are capable of earning 30-40% target shares in any games and had fine matchups for not that much more money. But in this construction, I just couldn’t find the money. So I settled for the low-volume game-breaking ability of Shaheed in a very good matchup. This Panthers secondary without Jaycee Horn is very beatable.
* I would have been fine with any of Vikings, Jets, Broncos, or Falcons defenses. All were facing weak QBs for all or most of the game, and all were $2900 or cheaper. I simply played the one that fit, which was the Broncos in this lineup.
* My last decision was a simple 1v1, Garrett Wilson or Amari Cooper. I had the money for either. There’s no doubt that Wilson was a better play by almost any way you look at it rationally. Target share, matchup, youth, even game environment potentially. But I thought the Amari Cooper going for career-highs stuff actually mattered here, and he could/would see a higher target share than we could realistically project. So I went with Cooper, undeniably a very talented wide receiver with what I thought was a far better quarterback.
Week 18 Results
I am not sure if Jalen Hurts or the gameplan was limited by his injury. But either way Josh Allen turned out to be the right call at quarterback. I also feel good about the 3-RB structure and teh volume I got there. Getting off Pat Freiermuth to save the money there was also correct. Unfortunately, the decision to play into Amari Cooper’s incentives instead of the right play in Garrett Wilson really hurt as Wilson won that matchup by 10 points.
All in all, it was a disappointing end to the season for me in cash. I started the season playing with a ton of confidence and running incredibly well. Over the final couple months, I think I both ran poorly and played poorly a few times. And that compounds – low confidence leads can lead to mistakes, even if it shouldn’t.
Regardless, thanks to everyone for following along all year. Good luck in the playoffs.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.02 points, won 80.7% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 127.28 points, won 65.8% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 139.86 points, won 96.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 171.52 points, won 89.5% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 184.36 points, won 62.1% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 135.86 points, won 51.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 165.40 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 194.24 points, won 87.1% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 161.62 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 160.18 points, won 81.7% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 96.68 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 145.12 points, won 59.9% of head-to-heads
Week 13: 150.04 points, won 52.1% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 130.60 points, won 57.5% of head-to-heads
Week 15: 101.42 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 16: DID NOT PLAY
Week 17: 83.10 points, won 19.3% of head-to-heads
Week 18: 115.66 points, won 43.1% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
