I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I thought this was a really straightforward slate until Saturday. At that point we found out Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) was out and Deshaun Watson (shoulder) was in real doubt. That created a ton of moving parts and ultra-cheap QB options. How we handled this was the key to the slate.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I believed the Rams when they said they wanted to take some work off Kyren Williams. But based on his backups and his recent usage, I thought he was an excellent bet for 90%+ of the RB snaps. When a $6000 RB has that kind of workload, competent QB play, and usage that includes the pass-game and goal-line work… he’s a stone-cold lock.
* Keenan Allen would have been an awesome play at $7900 in this home vs. Raiders spot even if Mike Williams (knee) was in. But with Big Mike and Austin Ekeler (ankle), it was impossible to pass on Keenan. The way he wins (shorter targets, high volume) is perfect for full-PPR DraftKings, perfect for the way defenses are defending vertical shots, and perfect for cash.
MY WANT PLAYS
* If Eli Mitchell (knee) was active, $9200 would’ve been a tougher sell on Christian McCaffrey. But with Mitchell out, the chances that CMC could consolidate touches into Week 1 and 2 usage rose. Combine that with a home matchup against the Cardinals, and CMC was more of a priority for me than other high-priced plays. For example, even at cost I preferred CMC to other stars I liked such as Ja’Marr Chase ($7800), Stef Diggs ($8100), and Tony Pollard ($7800).
* A case could’ve been made for both CMC (see above) and Puka Nacua as “musts.” I thought they were close to that. But there were so many other expensive plays I liked around them: Ja’Marr Chase, Tony Pollard, Stef Diggs, Tyreek Hill. That said, Puka with a healthy Matthew Stafford in some version of the Cooper Kupp role against a Colts secondary devoid of talent in a dome at $6700 was incredibly strong. He was our No. 2 WR in Top Plays and our third-best salary-adjusted value on the entire slate.
* I thought there were zero strong WR options in the $3K range. But there were three very strong WR options in the $4K range: Josh Palmer, Adam Thielen, Tank Dell. I did play with lineups that rostered two of these guys (see below).
But the one that fit most was the cheapest one in Palmer ($4000). With Big Mike Williams (knee) out, Palmer was the clear-cut WR2 for Justin Herbert in an excellent matchup. I did think that Palmer got worse with Jimmy Garoppolo out, as the Raiders were less likely to force a shootout. But that wasn’t enough to get me off such a cheap price and good spot.
* The final 3v3 I debated was Aidan O’Connell, Zack Moss, and Pat Freiermuth vs. Anthony Richardson, Adam Thielen, and Tanner Hudson. I went back and forth a few times in the last 20 minutes before lock.
O’Connell was a strong value at the $4000 QB floor price, a whopping $2700 less than A-Rich. The quarterback position is one where they all get roughly the same volume as (obviously) they touch the ball on every play. So historically, this was a position I loved to pay down at. Especially when the punt has weapons like Davante/Jakobi/Jacobs and was facing a leaky Chargers defense playing without both Joey Bosa and Derwin James. Of course, the difference in today’s NFL is the emergence of dual-threat QBs who can truly separate from the pack like Richardson. I decided AOC, Russ Wilson, and A-Rich were all roughly similar once salary factored in. So I would let the rest of my team dictate the QB spot.
As for Moss, his backup is borderline NFL player Trey Sermon. I thought Moss was a really good bet for 90%+ of the RB work. However, the difference between him and Kyren Williams (see above) was Richardson. The ultra-mobile QB threatened to both steal goal-line work, and not throw to RB as much.
If Andy Dalton was starting, the Thielen side would have been an absolute no brainer. With Bryce Young in there, I didn’t like Thielen as much. I also thought Pat Freiermuth was a pretty sizable upgrade on Tanner Hudson – especially against the Texans and especially with Diontae Johnson (hamstring) still out.
* Regular readers know I’m trying to spend as little as possible at D/ST. This week, I thought the cheapest viable defense was Panthers ($2500) at home against Kirk Cousins who projects to be among the league leaders in dropbacks each week. I did prefer the Browns, although after Deshaun Watson (shoulder) was ruled out they certainly got worse. We want our D/STs to have a lead so the opponent is dropping back a lot in known passing situations.
And obviously Ravens ($3200) got better with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting. My team had room for Browns but not Ravens. I didn’t think leaving money on table for Panthers was right, even with Watson out.
Week 4 Results
I think the final 3v3 I discussed above was a mistake. Mostly because Zack Moss simply wasn’t that strong of a play with Anthony Richardson under center. And because there was a true stone minimum tight end (Tanner Hudson), and I didn’t play him. I don’t care about the Browns vs. Panthers D/ST thing, but the Richardson side would’ve forced me onto Panthers which would have yielded better results.
So I don’t think I played very well. But I did book my best week of the season thanks to ceiling games from Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Christian McCaffrey. That’s the way this game goes sometimes: In the short term can play well and lose. Or play poorly and win. In the long run, clearly that won’t work.
And by the way, it may seem obvious to play these guys in cash. But in the $100 single entry double up: Kyren 63.4%, Puka 51.8% owned, CMC 58.1% owned.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
