I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. For more on contest selection, check out this free article.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was an odd slate because we didn’t have a lot of strong value, but the high-priced stars also weren’t in the cleanest spots relative to their price. It led to a lot of really balanced builds with significant upside.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Chris Godwin had a full-time role in Week 4, showing no ill-effects on his knee or hamstring issues. The Bucs also predictably reverted back to their extreme pass-happy style with all their wideouts healthy. Godwin’s role (opposite Mike Evans in 2-WR sets, slot in 3-WR sets) is incredibly valuable. In a very good matchup against the Falcons, I thought Godwin ($5900) was $500-$700 too cheap.
* The feature back role in Tampa’s offense is so incredibly valuable. Tom Brady annually has one of the highest target rates at running backs, and they produce a ton of red-zone runs. So even though Rachaad White played a lot in Week 4, that was in a trailing situation and mostly in the second half. I still thought the workhorse role belonged to Leonard Fournette, and this was an very strong matchup. Similar to Godwin, Lenny was $500-$700 too cheap.
* It’s rare I consider a D/ST a “must” in cash. But I’m of course trying to spend as little as possible, and this talented Cowboys unit against the scuffling offensive line of the Rams stuck out. Just $2500 and armed with Brandon Thorn’s 4th-biggest mismatch of the week.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered two quarterbacks this week: Josh Allen ($8200) and Tom Brady ($6000). And it basically came down to a 2v2 – Allen/punt WR or Brady/Jeff Wilson.
It was a complicated decision that I took right up to the last second. In the end, I liked but didn’t love the spot for Jeff Wilson. On the road with an injury-riddled offensive line and a meh pass-game role against a desperate Panthers team with some talented defenders. And Josh Allen was a virtual lock for 20 points, along with a bunch of 35+ games well within his range. As good as Tom Brady is, the floor/ceiling combo just isn’t comparable because he doesn’t run.
Note this is a big change from previous years in cash, where I rarely spent up at QB. As we’ve discussed at length Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts have broken the position.
* Once I decided to go with Josh Allen plus punt WR, there were two options. I actually had Khalil Shakir in most of morning. But when Jarvis Landry (ankle) was scratched, Marquez Callaway entered the mix.
The truth is that I didn’t think through this decision enough. It was close to lock, I was scrambling, and I just blew it. Easily the biggest mistake I’ve made this season.
1. Shakir is an unknown – we have no idea, he could be really good. We know Callaway isn’t very good, we have a large sample.
2. The Bills were desperate for secondary pass-catchers. Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, and Dawson Knox were all out. Shakir projected for the slot role, a valuable role in this offense as Cole Beasley and McKenzie have shown.
3. Shakir’s QB was Josh Allen. Callaway’s QB was Andy Dalton.
There’s really no excuse for blowing this one, this is the exact situation where I think my edge is.
* There were a lot of viable punts at tight end this week. Cade Otton, OJ Howard, Irv Smith, Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry were among the viable very cheap options. But going down to them didn’t get me any upgrades I thought were warranted, and Tyler Higbee’s target projection at $4300 was really strong. The Rams clearly scheme first-read plays to Higbee.
* This was a really strong week at running back. I thought Breece Hall, Jeff Wilson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Austin Ekeler were all in play.
Of those, the one I thought was the clear best value (outside of Fournette) was Alvin Kamara. This Seahawks defense is very bad and Geno Smith is playing at a top-5 level. The game was in a dome, Kamara had the previous week off to rest his ribs, and Andy Dalton was more likely to check down than Jameis Winston. On top of that, Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas were both out, opening up even more targets. At just $6600 and in full-PPR scoring, Kamara was clearly very strong. He also aligned with the “balanced with ceiling” build.
* Tyler Lockett vs. Jeff Wilson was another very close call. As noted above, I wasn’t in love with Wilson. And with Lockett at just $5600 and a 25% target share from the NFL’s most accurate QB on a Seahawks team that is skewing toward the pass, I thought the ceiling on Lockett was bigger than Wilson. And the base outcome was very similar.
* I actually didn’t have Christian Kirk or Jaylen Waddle in my initial cash pool. But I kept landing on this spot and couldn’t find the $500 to get to Dalvin Cook. I did like Kirk more than Waddle, with the latter still battling a groin issue and Teddy Bridgewater starting. And while I absolutely hate paying $6600 for a player I don’t love, I did think this was a very good setup for Kirk and Trevor Lawrence. Even going back to the preseason, Lawrence has been locked onto Kirk.
Week 5 Results
The Callaway>Shakir botched decision was expensive and completely ridiculous. I just can’t mess that kind of thing up, no excuses play like a champion. Given that, I’m happy to escape with a small win.
I’d add that I think this was my worst team of the season. I had a bad read on the Jeff Wilson situation, and got lucky that Chris Olave (concussion) left early. Still, the decision to play Josh Allen (only 23.4% owned in the big $25 single entry double up) and Alvin Kamara (33.2%) was enough.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.02 points, won 80.7% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 127.28 points, won 65.8% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 139.86 points, won 96.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 171.52 points, won 89.5% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 184.36 points, won 62.1% of head-to-heads
