I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I thought this was an extremely difficult week.
1. I only had one “must” – when that happens it’s typically difficult for me to get comfortable.
2. We had strong efficiency plays with questionable volume like Breece Hall and De’Von Achane. Those non-standard cash plays are always difficult to parse.
3. And finally, we had Tyreek Hill + Justin Jefferson in very strong spots. But they were also appropriately priced at $9000 and $9400.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I wanted to play David Montgomery in a home game against the Panthers at $6600 even before Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) was ruled out. Once Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) were ruled out, Montgomery became a lock. He had a clear path to 25 touches plus a ton of red-zone work in a very good offensive setup.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I thought there were six QBs in play for cash on a slate that only had 20 QBs: Josh Dobbs, Matthew Stafford, Anthony Richardson, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes. I really would’ve been fine with any of them at cost as QB gets deprioritized a bit in DK cash given current pricing conditions.
The last 3v3 I looked at was Anthony Richardson, Tyler Boyd, and Travis Kelce vs. Patrick Mahomes, Ja’Marr Chase and Jonnu Smith. Our projections had that roughly equal. I went back and forth a bunch in the final 20 minutes before lock. In the end, I decided that getting access to the week’s best game environment while also (hopefully) dominating my opponents at tight end was worth it.
As for Chase, I’m sure a ton of people considered him a “must” today given that Tee Higgins was out and the matchup against Arizona. He was our best WR value in projections by a decent margin. These are not spots I typically fade. I did think Joe Burrow’s calf issues would force him into a ton more short throws, and Boyd’s targets per route run this year have been solid even with Tee Higgins in the lineup. And if I’m being honest, playing Chase in Weeks 1 and 3 when he failed weighed on me.
* I thought it was a pretty strong RB week. In addition to David Montgomery (above), I thought Alvin Kamara ($6300), Joe Mixon ($6400), De’Von Achane ($6100), and Breece Ball ($5400) were all in play. I didn’t really consider Bijan Robinson ($7700) due to price and general Arthur Smith fears.
Achane is not the kind of RB I typically play at $6100 in cash. We had him projected for roughly the same workload as Raheem Mostert. However, this scheme, the Giants matchup and Achane’s natural ability allowed us to really lean into the efficiency here. Even with some conservative-ish inputs, Achane was still our fourth-best RB value.
While I thought the floor on Mixon or Kamara was better thanks to straight volume, the ceiling on Achane made me lean his way.
* We had four solid WR “punt” options in Wan’Dale Robinson, Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and Tyler Boyd (see above).
I knew I’d have to play at least one of them, if not two or three. I thought Boyd was the strongest of the group, followed by Reynolds. Even at $900 more, I did think Reynolds was stronger than Raymond – Reynolds has the long-standing chemistry with Jared Goff and already had a solid role even when Amon-Ra St. Brown (out, abdomen) is in. But I wasn’t going to force in Reynolds, as Raymond was already mixing in ahead of Marvin Jones Jr. and also was capable of playing the slot.
As for Wan’Dale, I knew he had no ceiling due to his pathetically low aDOT plus muted volume. And I really don’t like playing guys with no ceiling, even in cash. But at stone minimum $3000 and a really good bet for four catches, the slate called for it.
* As always, I was trying to spend as little as possible at D/ST. I would have been fine with any of Panthers, Titans, Cardinals under $3000. Titans fit here.
* I preferred both Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson to Ja’Marr Chase, even at cost. We had Hill and J-Jeff projected almost dead even. In the end, I thought leaning into the KC/MIN game environment in the dome was a hair better. Even though I do think this Chiefs defense is sneaky legit.
Week 5 Results
This was about as bad as it can possibly get. The side of the 3v3 I chose (see above) ended up losing by an unfathomable 49.12 points.
Obviously as soon as Anthony Richardson (shoulder) went down I knew I was likely dead. Losing Justin Jefferson (hamstring) hurt as well. Travis Kelce (ankle) missing time didn’t help. Tyler Boyd had a touchdown called back by an offensive line hands to face call.
But that said, all I needed to do was play Ja’Marr Chase and nothing else would’ve mattered. So consciously not prioritizing the WR we had atop Top Plays and as our best projected WR stings. Even though I thought the calf stuff was overblown, I clearly let Chase and Joe Burrow’s early-season struggles bias me too much.
So no excuses, I deserve the pain.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 107.62 points, won 5.5% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties
