Miller: 2023 Season-Long Draft Fades

Last Thursday, we looked at the players I’m targeting in season-long drafts this season (and discussed general philosophy on how to beat ADP and having the humility necessary to realize you’re going to be wrong a lot). Today, we’ll flip the script and discuss which players I’m not drafting much, if at all, in 2023.

NAJEE HARRIS (ADP 42.7)

In games in which both Harris and Jaylen Warren were healthy over the second half of 2022, Warren matched Harris with 18 targets. Warren was frequently playing in obvious passing situations over Harris, which makes sense considering he graded out significantly better as both a receiver and a blocker, per PFF. Warren was also far more efficient than Harris as a rusher, notching 4.9 yards per carry (Harris was at 3.8 last year and 3.9 as a rookie). Through two professional seasons, Harris has yet to show any semblance of being an efficient player. He may not lose his job given the difference in draft capital between him and Warren, but the Steelers are clearly moving toward a more split backfield. Warren played 12 of 28 snaps (42.9%) with Kenny Pickett in the preseason and all four third-down snaps (Harris got zero). He will enter the year as the primary pass-catching back in this offense, meaning most of Harris’ touches will be inefficient carries between the 20s. If Harris is playing just ~60% of snaps and ceding passing downs to Warren, he needs elite TD variance to realize a meaningful ceiling. In Round 4, I would rather take a WR or a more explosive back like Travis Etienne or Breece Hall.

MICHAEL PITTMAN (ADP 76.0)

This is more of a Colts passing-game fade than an indictment on Pittman himself. Anthony Richardson is arguably the highest-upside QB in the 2023 draft class, but he’s a raw passer who will likely take some time to adjust to the NFL. The fourth overall pick completed 13 of 29 passes for 145 yards (5.0 yards per attempt) across two games this preseason, eight months removed from the conclusion of a college season in which he completed 53.8% of his passes for 7.8 YPA. He’s also a prolific runner who will tilt Indianapolis toward a run-heavy attack. Alec Pierce had a passable rookie season and has been one of Richardson’s favorite targets at camp, plus the Cincinnati product’s deep-threat profile is a better match for Richardson’s cannon arm. Pierce and Josh Downs, a highly productive collegiate who could be Indy’s starting slot receiver in Week 1, may prevent Pittman from matching the 24.6% target share he posted last year. Pittman is certainly a solid NFL wideout, but he may not be the transcendent talent necessary to post big numbers in a run-heavy, inefficient offense.

JAMES CONNER (ADP 80.0)