NBA Matchups: January 5

Utah Jazz (front end) at Boston Celtics (front end)

Team Totals: Jazz 112.8, Celtics 127.3

Injury Report: Al Horford (Q, rest)

Jazz projected starters: Kris Dunn, Collin Sexton, Simone Fontecchio, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins

Celtics projected starters: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis

Hardy quotes: Said marginal mistakes are exposed by tremendous talent, said they shouldn’t have even let Burks get that shot off, said Detroit played much better than their record shows.

Mazzulla quotes: Said they played well for most of the game except in the third quarter, said Fast PP helped them get back in the game, said they were trying to pick up SGA a little higher to throw him off.

Stats and Notes: 

*Will Hardy seems to have finally found his starting unit with three straight starts. That lineup wasn’t even used all year before he went to it, and it’s been awful with a -23.4 net rating over just 29 minutes. This matchup for the Jazz offense is terrible with the Jazz really counting on rim scoring, ranking third in the NBA in rim possessions per game, and the Celtics are first in rim PPP allowed. Hardy undoubtedly knows this, so I’d expect more space and 3-pointers coming from their offense. The Jazz are so bad on the ball with the league’s worst PNR PPP, and they’re still giving up the most transition points in the league. With Boston coming off a loss, this game is almost certainly a blowout.

*Lauri Markkanen leads the NBA in C&S scoring and he doesn’t exactly create much on his own with very little to his dribble jumper game. All of the frontcourt players for Utah are also basically out with the rim protection. The clear guy who could get it going is Jordan Clarkson. He’s by far the team’s leader in dribble jumpers, and the great rim D from Boston won’t impact him. He’s also the team’s leader in PNR handler points, so I could see him get it going.

*It’s open season for Boston perimeter players. The player who benefits most here for this matchup is certainly Jaylen Brown. He is second in the NBA in transition scoring for points and he leads the NBA in transition possessions. He likely gets Kris Dunn on him, and he should dominate. Jayson Tatum should smash on Fontecchio, so he could also go nuts. The Jazz will also likely try a ton of zone here. You could also see Jrue Holiday and Derrick White just get there because of a bad defense on the other side. I’d expect Al Horford to sit here, but I don’t love this matchup for Porzingis. He’s playing great, though.

Great matchups: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum

Good matchups: Jordan Clarkson

Bad matchups: John Collins, Walker Kessler

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Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (front end)

Team Totals: Hawks 129.5, Pacers 133

Injury Report: Bruce Brown (Q, knee), Andrew Nembhard (Q, back)

Hawks projected starters: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela

Pacers projected starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Bruce Brown, Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner

Snyder quotes: Said Jalen Johnson getting into foul trouble hurt them later, said Jalen Johnson play-making has been nice to see and the team is trusting him more with the ball in his hands, said they want to use him more defensively to guard the ball, said Johnson’s fouls were hurt more on the ball, said Trent Forrest played late because they needed a matchup on SGA, said Forrest made some plays and the team/staff trusts him, said Forrest “can give us something unique and he did”.

Carlisle quotes: Said they had a “tremendous” third quarter and the crowd getting going in the third was the key to the game, said they are built to have several players average double figures, said Buddy only played 13 minutes but he was still pulling for his team, said the quality of people on the team means a lot to the organization, said they used a three-man wall to “make it as hard as possible on good players” and they can’t allow Giannis to play 1-on-1, said they got lucky Middleton was on a minutes limit, said Nembhard getting healthy will lead to some “real tough decisions” and they will have some “lineup fluidity” for multiple games, said “It’s hard to put into words how impressed I am with [Obi Toppin],” said Obi can handle and do basically everything with the ball.

Stats and Notes: 

*Pace game! The Pacers rank first in offensive seconds per possession while the Hawks are down to fifth. The Pacers are second in the NBA in transition points while the Hawks are getting wrecked in transition with the third-most points allowed in transition, as they just don’t get back. The Pacers have been a pretty decent transition defense on the year and they continue to lead the NBA in keeping C&S points down. Besides pace, these two squads have clear holes at the rim with the Pacers giving up the most rim points and the Hawks are in the mix for the worst at fourth most. The Pacers are first in rim scoring while the Hawks are 16th, so, again, the Hawks’ main weakness is right in the Indy wheelhouse. I hate betting against the Hawks because they show up out of the blue, but the Pacers should cover here. I would want Nembhard in before I make a move.

*Trae Young’s matchup hinges a bit on Nembhard’s availability, but either way, this is a huge spot for him. While we saw the Pacers load up on Giannis, it’s a little easier to do that against a guy whose shot profile is limited compared to Trae, who can beat you in a number of ways. Dejounte Murray could really benefit from what could be a Hali matchup, and I’d like him a little more if Nemby is in there. The best matchup for the Hawks here is Jalen Johnson, who is coming off a career-high 28 points. Saddiq Bey gets the worst matchup for Atlanta, with the Pacers taking away C&S better than anyone in the league. I’d be into Clint Capela, but he’s really struggling and I could see Onyeka Okongwu getting more run to cool it with the covers they would run in a Capela-backed defense.

*Tyrese Haliburton’s matchup is really good here. Sure, Dejounte Murray isn’t a walk in the park, but the Hawks being so bad in transition while also getting killed inside bodes extremely well for him. Myles Turner could also find himself in a favorable spot for pace and against this terrible rim defense. After those two, it’s going to be uncomfortable. From a ceiling standpoint, things breaking right would work best for Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin. It feels like Buddy Hield is a bit buried right now, and Bruce Brown could be interesting if Nemby is out.

Great matchups: Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young (if no Nemby), Jalen Johnson, Dejounte Murray (if Nemby in), Myles Turner

Good matchups: Trae Young (if Nemby in), Dejounte Murray (if Nemby out), Clint Capela

Bad matchups: Buddy Hield, Saddiq Bey

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets