NBA Matchups: March 20

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers

Team Totals: Heat 99.5, Cavs 102

Injury Report: Jimmy Butler (Q, foot), Nikola Jovic (Q, hamstring), Duncan Robinson (O, back), Donovan Mitchell (O, nose)

Heat projected starters: Terry Rozier, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Haywood Highsmith, Bam Adebayo (Note: It might be Patty Mills starting; Mills subbed in behind Duncan)

Cavs projected starters: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro, Georges Niang, Jarrett Allen

Spo quotes: Said they had enough effort against the 76ers and just couldn’t get it done, said Duncan Robinson’s back got worse and “he couldn’t move coming into the game,” said the 76ers were packing the paint on them.

Bickerstaff quotes: Said they were very physical and kept the Pacers out of the paint, said Marcus Morris stayed in shape and gave them a huge lift, said the guys executed the game plan, said LeVert has accepted his bench role but can fill in when they need him to, said LeVert has been able to figure out how to fit as a starter.

Stats and Notes: 

*Miami’s offense is completely broken. Despite playing Detroit twice, Philly, and Washington over their last six games, they rank 25th in offense. They are getting nothing from deep, they aren’t shooting free throws anymore, and they’re not getting enough rim pressure. It’s a disaster, and potentially losing Duncan Robinson is only going to make it worse. On the bright side, their defense has been quite good in this span at fourth, keeping teams out of transition better than anyone right now. They’re also taking away rim stuff with the best of them. The Cavs have some injuries to deal with, and this time it’s not going as well as the time they were short-handed before the break. Since Evan Mobley went down, the Cavs are only 16th in defense and their rim defense has been punished in each of the last three games (43 points off layups against the Pacers). The main reason why is teams just ran all over them to get those layups at 29.7 transition points allowed per game. It’s fair to say that the schedule could be taking some of their legs off them, and they are just so thin right now. We’ll see if the two days off and home court can help them get their legs back.

*Jimmy Butler could definitely miss this game. He was listed as Q for the last game and got ruled out in pre-game. With Duncan Robinson set to miss this one, things could get really thin for Miami. If Jimmy is a go, he’s likely going to get Isaac Okoro, and we’d have to worry about his upside. He wasn’t getting to the line before the injury, and this matchup isn’t great anyway. I’d just look elsewhere.

*Bam Adebayo did see a bigger role on Monday with 41 frontcourt touches in 31.9 minutes. His post-ups are back and that should continue without Jimmy. The matchup is quite bad against Jarrett Allen, though.

*Terry Rozier either gets more usage or a worse matchup with the Jimmy Butler news. If Butler is out, it’s very likely that he will get the Isaac Okoro matchup. Despite Jimmy missing the last couple, we are still not getting a big role out of Rozier with just 10 PNR handler possessions combined in the last two. The Heat probably just run a ton of Bam actions, so I’m not too into Rozier either way.

*Jaime Jaquez Jr. should get the start regardless, but Spo may have some tricks up his sleeve. Without Jimmy, we got very little on-ball role from JJJ. Maybe if Jimmy is out and Okoro gets Rozier, we could just get a path of least resistance for Juan Wick. Caleb Martin may also have to play silly minutes here, so he’s in play.

*Darius Garland had a massive airball on Monday. The role was still pretty strong at 9.2 minutes of touch time, 12 potential assists (seven dimes), and 20 drives. Garland’s efficiency on drives has been a concern, but he likely would’ve been bad there anyway against Miami. I’d expect him to bounce back with a strong game here.

*Caris LeVert was sun-running on dimes with 11 dimes on his 12 potential assists, but he had the role with 20 drives and 5.7 minutes of touch time. He had his heaviest PNR handler volume since Nov. 8, so he has a clear profile as a co-lead guard next to Garland. I still like Garland more for upside, but LeVert should have a huge role on his hands.

*Jarrett Allen’s matchup is just terrible. He’s had 4- and 6-point games in his last two Miami outings. Hard pass.

*The Heat are certainly going to leave Isaac Okoro open. It’s probably too thin to go there in DFS, but I’ll be looking at Okoro over 3-pointers. Maybe there’s a chance the Cavs go smaller to start Sam Merrill to add shooting. I doubt it, though.

Great matchups: Darius Garland

Good matchups: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Caris LeVert, Bam Adebayo, Terry Rozier (if Jimmy plays)

Bad matchups: Jarrett Allen

———————————————–

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons