Divisional Round Record: 1-6, -$568
YTD: 247-221, +$179
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at the Divisional Round.
Zay Flowers O4.5 Receptions +145 (4, L)
Mean proj: 4.8
At +145, we need to win this 40.8% of the time to break even. Flowers had hit 5+ catches in nine of 16 on the season (56.3%), so even if this was slightly less than a coin flip, we were in a solid +EV spot.
We were also projecting Mark Andrews in at the time we played this, setting up some extra potential value if he were to be inactive. Andrews didn’t end up playing, and Flowers would go on to record a strong 22.7% target share, pretty much exactly as we projected (22.4%). Unfortunately, the Ravens threw just 22 passes and Flowers fell one catch short.
Lamar Jackson O221.5 Passing Yards (152, L)
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