The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 3.
Week 3 officials: 10-8, +$59
Week 3 alts: 5-11, +$282
Overall officials: 29-23, +$363; +5.98% ROI
Overall alts: 11-30, +$578; +67.60% ROI
Props Total: +$941; +13.32% ROI
Zach Charbonnet O 10.5 Longest Rush -115 (13, W)
It’s tempting to lean into talent evaluations, matchups, and efficiency metrics on Longest Rush props, but volume is still king in this category. Charbonnet had been inefficient through the first two weeks, ranking in the bottom third of RBs in Rushing Yards Over Expected.
But that doesn’t matter much if you’re getting the rock 17+ times. The betting market (usually) agrees with this thesis; it’s highly unusual to see a Longest Rush line this low for a guy with a line of 17.5 Attempts like Charbonnet had on Sunday.
Looking at last year’s props data, an RB with that line would be expected to have a Longest Rush line in the range of 14-17 yards; in fact, we basically never see a Longest line so low at this Attempts number.
This Longest Rush line later adjusted to 12.5 yards at FanDuel, and that’s still on the low end of what we could expect from a guy with a 17.5 Attempts line.
And it turns out Charbonnet may not be as bad at football as the market assumes!
ETR NFL Player Props
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