NFL Props Review: Week 9

Week 9 Record: 17-6, +$1,056

YTD: 125-107, +$479

The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 9.

Alvin Kamara U62.5 Rushing Yards -115 (26, W) 

Mean proj: 62.5

We projected a 58% carry share for Kamara, exactly where he was last week against the Colts, but it turns out his recent dip in usage was more of a signal than a blip, as his utilization continued to crater this week.

Kamara finished with a 35% carry share, well behind “TE” Tayson Hill, who now has 20 rushing attempts over the past two weeks, six fewer than Kamara.

Kamara’s Rushing Yards line could be headed for sub-50-yard levels soon, so it was nice to get ahead of this one.

Davante Adams Under 6.5 Receptions (4, W)

Mean proj: 5.8

The coachspeak index was off the charts on Adams this week, with new head coach Antonio Pierce telling every reporter in sight that he would be sure to feed his best playmakers.

So much for that — Adams’ first target came in the final two minutes of the first half with the Raiders already up 21-0.

He wound up with a 29% target share, spot on our projection of 29.3%, a figure that gave us an Expected Value (EV) of $19 on this bet.

No doubt Adams had more ceiling in this spot, as he does every week, but that ceiling was already well baked into this line of 6.5 Receptions, which represented his highest line of the year.

Even if he was force-fed, we were also insulated by the fact that this was likely to be a run-heavy, low-volume affair between Aidan O’Connell and Daniel Jones, and that angle worked out as well.

ETR Projection (Actual) 

• LV Offensive Plays: 61.5 (59)
• NYG Offensive Plays: 64 (62) 

Brian Robinson Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts -114 (18, W)