Showdown Breakdown: Texans at Chiefs

NOTABLE INACTIVES

Editors Note 1: Top Plays, Stack Ideas, and Projections are at the bottom of this article.

Editor’s Note 2: For Evan Silva’s breakdown on every player in this game, click here. That is the best analysis on the game you will find. This article’s focus is to highlight specific strategies for this Showdown slate, not the game itself. 

Football is back! While things may look a little different Thursday night, the showdown lobby remains unfazed with $1M prizes being awarded across multiple sites. We kick the season off with a Texans at Chiefs rubber match that projects for plenty of fantasy goodness.

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS

If you’re dipping your toes into the single-game format for the first time, looking to refine your process or simply just need a refresher, we recommend reviewing this article that outlines our general thoughts on showdown strategy with a deep dive into the 2019 data. Like most DFS lineups, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness + optimal correlation + max projected points meet. Below you can review winning lineups from last season to better familiarize yourself with optimal construction.

When we review winning lineups, we can think backwards and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the Week 9 MNF matchup last season, we knew it would be contrarian to build a lineup assuming Dallas scored only through the air and thus fade Ezekiel Elliott, who projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate. With Prescott at Captain and multiple Dallas pass catchers in the FLEX spots, it made sense to get a piece of the Giants’ pass game as there would be increased pass volume in a potential come-from-behind effort. After the core was locked in, it was all about maximizing projected points. We had very little appealing value on this slate and we know as dropbacks increase, so do the opportunities for defenses to produce fantasy points via strip sacks and interceptions, making the Dallas DST an exceptional play. A fluky late-game defensive touchdown was the icing on the cake for the winning lineup on this Monday night slate. While it’s impossible to do on full slates, building rosters or setting groups around an expected outcome is often the optimal strategy on one-game Showdown slates.

TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

TNF pairs two explosive offenses with the Texans visiting the Chiefs as 9.5-point road underdogs in a mouth-watering 54-point total. Though we’ve had weeks to analyze this slate since salaries were released, we have very few offseason data points to use as benchmarks for determining how new and existing members of each team’s offense will be used and how coaching tendencies may change.

Chiefs HC Andy Reid’s second-ranked situation-neutral pass rate (64%) brings with it plenty of fantasy opportunities. Though, if Vegas is to be believed, we should expect slightly fewer pass attempts as the Chiefs’ pass rate dropped to 54% last season when playing with a lead. Texans HC Bill O’Brien and his 24th-ranked situation-neutral pass rate (56%) may be forced to lean on his franchise QB if they expect to keep this game close. When trailing in 2019, the Texans’ pass rate jumped from 56% to 64%, presenting a modest increase in opportunity for Texans pass catchers in builds where we expect them to fall behind. In a format that tasks us with beating 355,000 entries to ship 1st place, building around a contrarian game script where we expect Houston to play with a lead will immediately offer a unique build. When leading, the Texans’ pass rate fell all the way to 47%, while the Chiefs’ pass rate rose slightly to 69% in come from behind efforts.

The Chiefs’ potent offense returns, headlined at the wide receiver position by showdown darling, Tyreek Hill ($10400). Hill was every bit the WR1 we expected in 2019, handling an elite 39% share of his team’s air yards to go with a 23% target share in games where he was healthy. Behind Hill, things get interesting with Sammy Watkins ($5800), Mecole Hardman ($5200) and Demarcus Robinson ($2200) all back in the picture. While season-long ADP suggests Hardman is the guy to own, we’re not convinced. As Silva noted in matchups, Watkins out-snapped Hardman 85% to 30% in the Chiefs’ playoff run and did enough during the offseason to maintain the WR2 job. Last season Watkins saw a higher target share (19% to 7%) and higher share of the team’s air yards (22% to 9%). With just a $600 difference in price and similar projected ownership, Hardman stands out as one of the most overowned options on the slate. Robinson is the true wildcard, assuming he maintains the Chiefs’ WR3 role. In 2019, he played on 63% of snaps and ran a route on 68% of dropbacks. While the lackluster 10% target share is a concern, for players like Robinson, we’re just looking for someone who projects for solid playing time and is capable of running hot on volume over a one-game sample.

Travis Kelce ($9200) and his team-leading 31 red-zone targets are due for positive regression after he turned those opportunities into just five touchdowns in 2019. The field generally views Kelce and Hill as fantasy equals, with the cheaper of the two typically carrying more ownership. Hill becomes an interesting leverage play at a steeper price tag if we expect Kelce to be higher-owned. As Silva noted, it’s wheels up for the entire Chiefs pass attack as the Texans ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends.

With pricing released nearly a month before kickoff, the Chiefs’ backfield gives us our first major mispricing of the season; Darrel Williams‘ ($1800) price tag is nearly $2000 too cheap for an RB2 in this offense, who has the capability of handling 50% of the team’s carries in his range of outcomes. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8800) figures to pace the Chiefs’ backfield in total touches and as Silva noted, Edwards-Helaire’s skillset should shine against a Texans defense that allowed the league’s second-most catches to backs (104). Patrick Mahomes ($12600) is comfortably priced near his 2019 average and with value options on the lower end of the pricing spectrum, we don’t expect his tag to be prohibitive for most lineup constructions. There’s not much left to say for the best player in football.

After the offseason departure of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller ($8000) should get every opportunity to take over as the Texans’ alpha WR1. In games where Fuller played > 50% of the snaps, he saw a 24% target share and a 33% share of the team’s air yards. Remove Hopkins’ 29% target share and it’s easy to make a case Fuller is slightly underpriced for his volume upside and will be a relatively underowned captain option with the studs on this slate.

Behind Fuller, the trio of Brandin Cooks ($7200), Kenny Stills ($4600) and Randall Cobb ($4200) will fight for Week 1 WR2 volume. As Silva noted in matchups, a quad injury may force Cooks into a limited role, sliding Stills into the WR rotation and potentially setting Cobb up for sneaky volume at a cheap price tag. Especially where we can expect reduced ownership, it makes sense to take advantage of this ambiguous WR group when considering Houston targeted the position on 64% of pass attempts in 2019.

The Texans will continue to deploy the two-headed monster of Darren Fells ($4400) and Jordan Akins ($3200) at the TE position. Though they’re low-usage options, both played enough snaps (72% and 61%) and ran enough routes (53% and 66%) to be viable options. With 29 red-zone targets vacated by the Hopkins trade, Fells and Akins stand to see an increased role as touchdown scorers.

As part of the Hopkins trade, David Johnson ($7200) joins the Texans as their new lead back. Though he struggled mightily on the ground down the stretch in Arizona, Johnson showed well as a receiver, maintaining a respectable 1.59 yards per route run. If he’s able to secure a majority of the pass-down work ahead of running mate Duke Johnson ($4200), he projects as a safe source of volume regardless of game script. However, we suspect David will cede enough opportunities in the passing game to Duke that both may struggle to get the touches that would force them into optimal lineups. The stars are aligning for a Deshaun Watson ($11600) eruption. As Silva noted, the Chiefs’ secondary will be without Bashaud Breeland – PFF’s No. 4-graded cornerback last year. If we expect the game to play out as projected, it’s noteworthy that Watson’s career yards per attempt rise from 7.7 to 8.4 when trailing, and his yards per carry spike from 4.4 to 6.3. A slight discount from Mahomes coupled with lower captain ownership makes Watson a top target to fill the position.

TOP PLAYS

Given the importance of maximizing raw points, correlation and uniqueness we’ve grouped our top plays into three categories: top overall plays, top value plays and top leverage plays.

STACK IDEAS

*Captain Patrick Mahomes + (3) Chiefs Pass Catchers – The data shows that a majority of lineups with elite QBs at captain pair them with 1-2 receivers from their team. We’re more unique if we include a third pass catcher, i.e., Kelce, Watkins and Robinson.

*Captain Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson, Tyreek Hill – If we lean into the notion that Fuller takes over as the Texans’ clearcut WR1, he could push for a 30% target share and handle a majority of the team’s most valuable targets. With a lower-owned captain we’re afforded the ability to build a slightly more chalky lineup around him.

*Captain Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Akins – As mentioned above, generally speaking, whoever is higher priced between Hill and Kelce benefits from a captain ownership discount. If target volume concentrates around Hill, he’s live to outscore Mahomes and finish as the top captain.

*Captain Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Sammy Watkins – Watson’s rushing ability presents plenty of outs for him to finish as the top captain and creates optionality in who we pair him with. Bringing a Texans stack back with a member of the Chiefs’ pass game is likely optimal as nearly 90% of winning teams that rostered a QB/WR/TE at captain included at least one QB/WR/TE from the opposing team. 

*Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deshaun Watson, Randall Cobb – A lot of offseason assumptions have gone into Edwards-Helaire’s week one projection. If we’re wrong and he manages a bell-cow workload out of the gate, he’s too cheap and offers one of the highest ceilings on the slate.