Last Updated: September 4th at 2:30pm ET.
Excel download: Silva’s Top 150
Color coded PDF download: Silva’s Top 150
Evan Silva’s column on PPR and Standard Adjustments to the Top 150
Tiers of Evan: Defenses
Running log of Top 150 Changes
Related Draft Kit Resources:
Video replay of Silva and Levitan live draft 1 and draft 2
Silva Apex Draft Live Blog
Establish The Run Podcasts
Silva Sneaky Stacking Options
These Top 150s are based on 0.5-PPR scoring and will be updated throughout training camp. They can be used as cheatsheets fantasy leaguers bring to drafts and put to use with minimal on-the-fly modification in the single-digit rounds. As I’ve taken part in higher-stakes leagues in recent years, my leanings have increasingly stressed volume projections to break ties and upside as the holy grail. Weekly consistency factors in, but I’m willing to sacrifice some of it in order to grab true win-loss tilters.
1. Christian McCaffrey (RB1) – Broke Matt Forte’s record for RB catches (107). Improved O-Line.
2. Saquon Barkley (RB2) — Already best RB in NFL. Avg’d 4.6 fewer PPR PPG without OBJ last year.
3. Alvin Kamara (RB3) — 32 touchdowns in 31 career games. Saints return 4/5 starters from elite OL.
4. Ezekiel Elliott (RB4) – Growing indications Cowboys will have Zeke signed & back by Week 1.
5. David Johnson (RB5) – Will get more space with Kyler Murray QBing Kingsbury’s Air Raid spread.
6. Davante Adams (WR1) – Leads NFL in red-zone targets (77) & receiving TDs (35) over last 3 years.
7. DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) – 1st & 3rd in Air Yards past two years. One missed game in 6 seasons.
8. Odell Beckham (WR3) — Baker Mayfield is best QB of OBJ’s career after wasting years with Eli.
9. Julio Jones (WR4) — 1,400+ yards in 5 straight years. Only 3 missed games in last half decade.
10. Tyreek Hill (WR5) — Back-to-back top-5 WR1 finishes. WRs 1-5 here virtually interchangeable.
11. James Conner (RB6) — Last year’s RB3 in Weeks 1-10. Steelers return 5/5 offensive line starters.
12. Nick Chubb (RB7) — Lofty TD ceiling. Receiving outlook enhanced by Duke Johnson trade to HOU.
13. Dalvin Cook (RB8) — Ongoing injury risk but averaged 104 total yards, 5.7 YPC over last 5 weeks.
14. Travis Kelce (TE1) — Finished TE1, TE2, TE1 last three years. Dipped slightly after Tyreek news.
15. Michael Thomas (WR6) — Averaging 6.8 catches for 80.6 yards per game through 3 NFL seasons.
16. JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR7) – Finished 4th in targets; Steelers missing 5th-most targets from 2018.
17. Mike Evans (WR8) – Perfect fit with Bruce Arians. Finished 3rd, 1st, 5th, 2nd in Air Yards last 4 years.
18. Le’Veon Bell (RB9) — Dropped from RB7 amid concerns of slow start based on usage & schedule.
19. Joe Mixon (RB10) — Dropped from RB6 due to offensive-line losses and A.J. Green ankle surgery.
20. George Kittle (TE2) — Set records for yards (1,377) & yards after catch (873) by TE. Jimmy G back.
21. Amari Cooper (WR9) — First full offseason with Dak after in-season trade. Playing for pay day.
22. Keenan Allen (WR10) – Mike Williams’ emergence, Hunter Henry’s return threaten Allen’s ceiling.
23. Devonta Freeman (RB11) – Injury flags but big volume upside. Falcons drafted two first-round OLs.
24. Adam Thielen (WR11) – Coming off career year with Kirk Cousins. 204 catches over last 2 seasons.
25. Stefon Diggs (WR12) – Expect vertical usage to expand under Gary Kubiak after low-aDOT season.
26. Aaron Jones (RB12) — Immense talent but knee injuries, off field have cost him 8 games in 2 years.
27. Leonard Fournette (RB13) — Major injury concern but coming at major discount in drafts this year.
28. Kerryon Johnson (RB14) — Last year’s RB15 before knee injury. Lions still look committed to RBBC.
29. Antonio Brown (WR13) — Faller amid turbulent start to OAK tenure. Big quarterback downgrade.
30. Julian Edelman (WR14) — 156 targets in last 16 games; would have ranked No. 6 in NFL last year.
31. Todd Gurley (RB15) — Boom-bust pick. Rams moves suggest legit concern with Gurley’s knee.
32. Chris Godwin (WR15) — Bruce Arians’ new slot machine. Bucs missing 4th-most targets from ’18.
33. Chris Carson (RB16) — Finished No. 5 in NFL in rushing. Separated from Rashaad Penny in camp.
34. Tyler Lockett (WR16) – Coming off breakout year with opportunity peaking post-Doug Baldwin.
35. Zach Ertz (TE3) – NFL’s premier route-running TE. Led all tight ends in red-zone targets last year.
36. Brandin Cooks (WR17) – Career-high 1,204 yards in first year with Rams. Still only 25 years old.
37. Tyler Boyd (WR18) — A.J. Green out multiple games. Boyd’s arrow up after breakout season.
38. Robert Woods (WR19) – Safe WR2 but usage will take step back with Cooper Kupp returning.
39. Derrick Henry (RB17) — Taylor Lewan suspension, foot injury lowered confidence in Henry.
40. Mark Ingram (RB18) – High rushing ceiling but minimal receiving projection in deep RB stable.
41. David Montgomery (RB19) — Became evident in mid-August he’d sewn up Bears No. 1 RB job.
42. Sony Michel (RB20) – Avg’d 18.7 touches with 12 TDs in final 14 games. Healthy all camp.
43. Marlon Mack (RB21) — Plummeted with Luck’s retirement, severely capping Mack’s upside.
44. Josh Jacobs (RB22) — Being overdrafted in suspect offensive environment with below-par OL.
45. Duke Johnson (RB23) — Skyrocketed with trade to Houston, Lamar Miller’s ACL/MCL tear.
46. O.J. Howard (TE4) — Bucs target distribution has narrowed. May be most talented TE in NFL.
47. Austin Ekeler (RB24) — Signs continue to point toward Melvin Gordon sitting ’til midyear.
48. D.J. Moore (WR20) – 2nd among rookie WRs in yards/route run. Panthers likely No. 1 WR.
49. Kenny Golladay (WR21) — Lions see Kenny G as No. 1 WR, but more target competition now.
50. Allen Robinson (WR22) — Year two with Trubisky after fast finish & playoff eruption vs. Eagles.
51. Miles Sanders (RB25) — Over hamstring scare, outplayed all other Eagles RBs in training camp.
52. Tevin Coleman (RB26) — Favorite to lead 49ers in touches following Jerick McKinnon setback.
53. Evan Engram (TE5) — Averages 2.2 more targets/game sans OBJ. Golden Tate suspension helps.
54. Mike Williams (WR23) — Won’t sustain 10 TDs on 43-reception pace but warrants more targets.
55. Cooper Kupp (WR24) — On pace for 80 catches, 12 TDs before ACL tear. Glowing rehab reports.
56. Josh Gordon (WR25) — Skyrocketed when reinstated. 14th among 96 WRs in YPRR last year.
57. Damien Williams (RB27) — Job security severely threatened by LeSean McCoy’s signing.
58. LeSean McCoy (RB28) — Couldn’t have landed in better spot, commanded real money ($3-4M).
59. Phillip Lindsay (RB29) — UDFA superstar’s workload at risk under Broncos new coaching staff.
60. Hunter Henry (TE6) — Recovered from 2018 ACL tear. No. 2 among TEs in yards/route run in ’17.
61. Calvin Ridley (WR26) — See Mike Williams. TDs (10) will fall but room for target (92) growth.
62. T.Y. Hilton (WR27) — Andrew Luck’s retirement sent Hilton from fringe WR1 to boom-bust WR3.
63. Robby Anderson (WR28) – Once healthy, formed exciting bond with Sam Darnold down stretch.
64. Will Fuller (WR29) — Ongoing injury risk but 11 TDs over last 16 games and Coutee already hurt.
65. Sammy Watkins (WR30) — Injury risk. But including playoffs, 2016 16-game pace was 78/1,106/5.
66. Deshaun Watson (QB1) – Averages 1.5 more YPA & 1.5 more TDs per game when Will Fuller plays.
67. Patrick Mahomes (QB2) – 2018 leader in touchdown passes & TD Rate will face some regression.
68. Matt Breida (RB30) — Another McKinnon setback locks Breida into 1b role behind Tevin Coleman.
69. Vance McDonald (TE7) — 2nd in line for Ben Roethlisberger’s targets behind JuJu Smith-Schuster.
70. Melvin Gordon (RB31) — Keeps sinking as contract-related holdout with Chargers intensifies.
71. Christian Kirk (WR31) — Should overtake Larry Fitz as focal point of Kliff Kingsbury’s spread.
72. Alshon Jeffery (WR32) — Targets up with Carson Wentz last 2 years. Rare surgery-free offseason.
73. Curtis Samuel (WR33) — Panthers camp star is sneaky bet to lead team in 2019 WR targets.
74. Dante Pettis (WR34) — High-end talent being forced to “prove it” under Kyle Shan coaching staff.
75. Dede Westbrook (WR35) — Easy bet to lead Jags in targets with Chris Conley, DJ Chark outside.
76. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR36) — Easily highest ceiling of Packers non-Davante Adams WRs.
77. Kenyan Drake (RB32) — Breakout candidate hasn’t earned true workhorse role since high school.
78. Latavius Murray (RB33) — Expect 10-12 touches/game with goal-line carries in New Orleans.
79. Darrell Henderson (RB34) — Rams traded up for Henderson at No. 70, compared him to Kamara.
80. James White (RB35) — Topped 10 touches twice in final 10 games. Pats RBs deeper than ever.
81. Rashaad Penny (RB36) — Outplayed by Carson. Likely to open year as Seahawks clear No. 2.
82. Tarik Cohen (RB37) — Additions of David Montgomery/Mike Davis will keep Cohen in niche role.
83. A.J. Green (WR37) — Expected to miss multiple games after surgery to repair torn ankle ligaments.
84. Jarvis Landry (WR38) — Career-low 81 catches in Browns debut. Beckham will vacuum looks.
85. Marvin Jones (WR39) — No. 2 WR behind Kenny Golladay on run-first Lions. Low-ceiling WR3.
86. Courtland Sutton (WR40) — Broncos No. 1 outside WR coming off 700+ yard rookie campaign.
87. Larry Fitzgerald (WR41) — Even in decline phase, likely to vie for Cardinals team target lead.
88. Jared Cook (TE8) – Third in line for Drew Brees’ targets behind Michael Thomas & Alvin Kamara.
89. David Njoku (TE9) – Inconsistency alert. Avg’d just 4.6 targets/game with Freddie Kitchens as OC.
90. Sterling Shepard (WR42) – Giants No. 1 WR’s early-season upside raised by Golden Tate ban.
91. Royce Freeman (RB38) — Broncos intent on limiting 184-pound Lindsay, increasing Freeman’s role.
92. Derrius Guice (RB39) – Needed 3 additional procedures after ACL surgery. Skins backfield is deep.
93. Devin Singletary (RB40) — Candidate to be overdrafted after Shady release. Still RBBC in Buffalo.
94. Baker Mayfield (QB3) — QB7 under Freddie Kitchens in Weeks 9-17. Sky-high ceiling with OBJ.
95. Aaron Rodgers (QB4) — Last year’s 4.2% TD Rate lowest since replacing Favre. +Regression.
96. Tony Pollard (RB41) — Value heavily contingent on whether Zeke Elliott reports by Week 1.
97. Justin Jackson (RB42) — Melvin Gordon increasingly likely to miss time. Would be 1b to Ekeler 1a.
98. Corey Davis (WR43) — Adam Humphries, A.J. Brown, Delanie Walker damage his target projection.
99. Donte Moncrief (WR44) – Moncrief locked up No. 2 WR role on league’s pass-heaviest team.
100. Geronimo Allison (WR45) – Quietly on 1,156-yard pace in first month before injuries ruined year.
101. Justice Hill (RB43) — Preseason riser should open season in change-up role behind Mark Ingram.
102. Michael Gallup (WR46) — Late-August riser due to big camp/preseason, Amari Cooper foot injury.
103. Kalen Ballage (RB44) — Competing with Kenyan Drake to start. Big, fast, explosive, can catch.
104. Jordan Howard (RB45) — Likely extremely TD dependent in backfield ruled by Miles Sanders.
105. Kareem Hunt (RB46) – Suspended first 8 games. Only draftable in best-ball/deep-bench leagues.
106. Damien Harris (RB47) – Patriots third-round pick expected to challenge Sony Michel’s touches.
107. Jaylen Samuels (RB48) — Combo back second in line for Steelers touches behind James Conner.
108. DeSean Jackson (WR47) — Led NFL in yards/catch (18.9) in Tampa last year. Ideal best-ball pick.
109. Jamison Crowder (WR48) — Showed impressive early-camp/preseason rapport with Sam Darnold.
110. Russell Wilson (QB5) – Concerns are pass volume and regression after career-high 8.2% TD Rate.
111. Carson Wentz (QB6) – Arguably NFL’s best O-Line/weapons combo. Back injury biggest concern.
112. Matt Ryan (QB7) – Last year’s QB2 likely to play in fewer shootouts with defensive stars back.
113. Kyler Murray (QB8) – Aggressive dual threat in Kingsbury offense that could take NFL by storm.
114. Lamar Jackson (QB9) — QB8 in Weeks 11-17 after replacing Flacco. 1,000 rushing yards in play.
115. Cam Newton (QB10) — Overall QB5 last Weeks 1-12 before arm injury. Dropped due to foot sprain.
116. Alexander Mattison (RB49) — Third-round rookie is new 221-pound complement to Dalvin Cook.
117. Austin Hooper (TE10) — High-floor, low-ceiling fringe TE1 in deep Falcons pass-catcher corps.
118. Jameis Winston (QB11) — Best-ball stackers should target Jameis-Evans-Godwin-Howard variations.
119. Dak Prescott (QB12) — QB4 in Weeks 9-17 with Amari Cooper. Rush attempts have risen every year.
120. Ben Roethlisberger (QB13) – Losing AB84 hurts, but Ben’s supporting cast remains top ten in NFL.
121. Peyton Barber (RB50) – Two-down plodder still in driver’s seat to lead high-scoring Bucs in carries.
122. Josh Allen (QB14) – Last year’s overall QB1 in Weeks 12-17. Big upgrades at WR & offensive line.
123. Drew Brees (QB15) — Concerned about his arm after late-season fade. Adds nothing with his legs.
124. Jared Goff (QB16) – Abnormally protection-sensitive passer with major turnover on interior line.
125. Philip Rivers (QB17) – Mike Williams’ emergence & Hunter Henry’s return buoy Rivers’ floor.
126. Mark Andrews (TE11) — Big-time talent. Concerns: Run-heavy offense and likely TE timeshare.
127. Delanie Walker (TE12) — Topped 800 yards in 4 straight years before Week 1 ankle fracture.
128. John Brown (WR49) — Expect ups and downs with Josh Allen but locked into Bills No. 1 WR role.
129. Jalen Richard (RB51) – Finished 7th among RBs in catches (68). Should complement Josh Jacobs.
130. Dion Lewis (RB52) – Titans moving to Derrick Henry-centric offense with Lewis as change up.
131. Frank Gore (RB53) — Not crazy to think he’ll lead Bills in touches after Shady McCoy release.
132. Ronald Jones (RB54) – 2018 second-round flop again failed to beat out Peyton Barber in camp.
133. Deebo Samuel (WR50) – 36th overall pick joins running for 49ers No. 1 WR job with Dante Pettis.
134. Chase Edmonds (RB55) – Second in line for RB work in offense where play volume will spike.
135. Ty Montgomery (RB56) — Has taken commanding lead for Jets No. 2 RB behind Le’Veon Bell.
136. Giovani Bernard (RB57) — Beat writers have suggested role could be bigger than expected.
137. Jordan Reed (TE13) — Fell due to preseason concussion, the seventh known of Reed’s career.
138. Dare Ogunbowale (RB58) — Ticketed for passing-down-back duties on pass-heavy Bucs team.
139. DaeSean Hamilton (WR51) — Stock dropping with Emmanuel Sanders beating expectations.
140. Chris Herndon (TE14) — Ineligible to play until Week 6 due to 4-game suspension, Week 4 bye.
141. Jimmy Graham (TE15) — Rookie Jace Sternberger has put no pressure on Graham thus far.
142. Rashard Higgins (WR52) — Browns No. 3 WR has clear on-field chemistry with Baker Mayfield.
143. Tom Brady (QB18) — Brady’s stock rose when Josh Gordon was reinstated from suspension.
144. Greg Olsen (TE16) — Foot injury waiting to happen but should be usable early in the season.
145. Tyler Eifert (TE17) — Turned in a healthy camp. Lots of early-season opportunity sans AJG.
146. Gus Edwards (RB59) — Member of Ravens likely 3-way RBBC with Mark Ingram, Justice Hill.
147. James Washington (WR53) — Saw just one snap with Steelers 1st-team offense all preseason.
148. Darwin Thompson (RB60) — Cratered from RB39 to RB59 after Chiefs signed LeSean McCoy.
149. Albert Wilson (WR54) — Didn’t begin practicing fully until late in camp because of hip injury.
150. Chris Thompson (RB61) — Looks increasingly fantasy viable on Skins team destined to trail.
