Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 1 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Note that the Week 1 version of this article is always extra long just to talk about all of the new information we learned — I will try to cut this down in future weeks. Let’s get right to it:

1. Javonte Williams was the story of the season opener, rushing 15 times for 54 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 2/10/0 on three targets as a pass catcher. The per-carry yardage efficiency was mediocre and his fantasy outing was saved by scoring twice, but the underlying usage was incredibly encouraging. Williams played 77.0% of snaps, ran 27 routes on 35 dropbacks, and handled 15 of 19 running back carries. He’s a must-start fantasy option as long as he maintains that role.

2. Jaydon Blue was inactive in Week 1 and Miles Sanders broke a long run, but Sanders really should have scored on this play, and he fumbled in the red zone shortly after. Williams is the unquestioned workhorse right now, but it’s a long season, and Blue is worth holding despite being inactive.

3. KaVonte Turpin ran 17 routes; Jalen Tolbert ran 18. It’s a committee at WR3, but Turpin is by far the more valuable of the two if that usage continues. Turpin averaged 0.27 targets per route run in 2024 — that number will tank in a larger role, but it can drop a ways and still be better than the 0.16 mark Tolbert was at last year. Turpin was also more efficient on a per-target basis last season, and he has a rushing role (two carries). However, Tolbert may have more upside to step into a full-time role if either CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens miss.

4. Pickens had four targets on 34 team pass attempts in Week 1 but was, of course, in a full-time role. Nothing to worry about — better days are ahead.

5. With Will Shipley potentially set to miss time, it’s notable that Barkley played in the 2-minute drill at the end of the first half without Shipley. We don’t know what the role would have been with Shipley healthy (Kenneth Gainwell played a lot of 2-minute snaps for PHI last year, and Shipley is in the same mold), but Barkley appears to have that role without Shipley, and Saquon had three targets on that one drive at the end of the first half.