Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 15 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it:

1. Demarcus Robinson ran 26 routes on 29 dropbacks after entering Thursday night questionable with a shoulder injury, indicating he was not at all limited by the injury. He remains in a low-volume role alongside Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Speaking of Kupp, he failed to record a catch for the first time since 2019 – Nacua now has six straight games with at least a 31% target share and has established himself as the clear WR1 in this offense. Still, this offense remains incredibly concentrated around its top-two WRs, and there’s still plenty of volume for Kupp too even if this isn’t a 1A/1B situation anymore. Kupp remains a fantasy WR2.
2. Isaac Guerendo was questionable with a foot injury going into Thursday but ended up playing 76% of snaps and handling all 17 running back carries for the 49ers. RB2 Patrick Taylor played just three snaps. Unlike last week, the 49ers did use Kyle Juszcyzk as their primary third-down back (Guerendo played some third downs in Week 14), similar to the role Juicecheck played with Jordan Mason as the starter at the beginning of the season. Guerendo had a Lisfranc injury in college, and it’s sensical to think that he felt something wrong with his foot in Week 14 and wanted to play it safe. The San Francisco offense is a dumpster fire right now, and now they have very little to play for, but Guerendo is at least all systems go health-wise for Week 16.
3. With Miles Sanders, Jonathon Brooks, and Raheem Blackshear all out, Chuba Hubbard played 95% of snaps for the Panthers, handled 10-of-12 RB carries, and ran 29 routes on 37 dropbacks. Blackshear could return next week, but Chuba out-snapped him 53-2 in the game where Sanders got hurt. This is a pretty difficult workload to sustain for a running back, so it’s possible CAR tries to limit his snap count at least somewhat, but it’s clear he’s a complete workhorse and will get all of the high-leverage touches for the rest of the season.
4. Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Jalen Coker‘s return sent David Moore back to the bench with Coker, Adam Thielen, and Xavier Legette all playing on at least 20 of the Panthers’ 26 first-half snaps, but Legette got hurt early in the second half, which allowed Moore to slide back into an every-down role. If Legette misses time, it’s a pretty simple WR rotation with Moore and Coker on the outside and Thielen in the slot. Legette would take Moore’s role if fully healthy.