Expect ownership to be concentrated on the top three options on this slate, in a week where I’d be genuinely surprised if the chalk doesn’t win. I leaned heavily into game theory and leverage last week, but as of this writing, I most likely will not be on this slate.
Below, I’ll discuss multiple games, listed from highest projected ownership to least for teams with at least 1% projected ownership (and two with less than that this week). As always, I will check in via the survivor pool channel in Discord to discuss any updates I have on any matchup.
If you’re in a pool with holiday slates, like Circa, you can find those schedules at the bottom of this column.
Rams vs. Saints
Spread: Rams -14
Total: 43.5
Ownership: 44%
From a pure football slant, the Rams are a contender with elite coaching and quarterback play, coming off a bye, hosting one of the league’s worst teams, while rookie Tyler Shough makes his first NFL start for the Saints. A ton of things have to go sideways for the Rams to lose this matchup, so I have little to no concerns about Los Angeles losing this contest, especially considering that the Saints have looked bad during their last two games (which is actually more in line with preseason expectations).
Whether to play the Rams on this slate is more of a game-theory, leverage, and future value decision. I could see the Rams breaching 50% ownership in several tournaments, where the core reason my projections have them at 44% is that there are a number of strong options on this slate.
I don’t have an issue with making your decision based on that, but for my own entries where I don’t take the Rams, my pivots will likely be to the Packers and Chargers.
Future value, I’m either playing the Rams here or in Week 13 at Carolina. I like both matchups, as long as Matthew Stafford remains healthy, but I like this one against the Saints significantly more, to the point I’d be absolutely shocked if the Rams lost here unless Stafford gets knocked out.
I would rather not play the Rams against Arizona or in any other matchup unless a future opponent gets reduced by injuries. To be clear, I intend to play the Rams in a number of my remaining entries.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 at CAR, Week 14 at ARI, Week 18 vs. ARI
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