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Projecting team-level volume in fantasy football is a two-step process. First, you have to figure out how many plays each team will run per game. Thankfully, ETR’s Pat Thorman is the best in the business at picking out team pace trends, and he’s already written about which teams he expects to be faster or slower in 2023 (and which teams have pace uncertainty).
Once we have an idea of how much total play volume there will be, we have to estimate how many pass vs. run plays teams will call each week. Some teams are easy: The Chiefs understandably want the ball in Patrick Mahomes‘ hands every play, while the Titans will lean on Derrick Henry whenever possible. Beyond those extremes, things get slightly trickier. Will the Steelers unleash Kenny Pickett in his sophomore campaign? Will Kevin Stefanski continue to lean on the ground game with Deshaun Watson being paid so much money? These are hard questions to answer, but we can try to find an answer by digging into 2022 data and examining trends throughout the season (and, perhaps more importantly, what was causing those trends).
Today, we’ll dive into 2022 play-calling trends and read through what team administrators have been saying so we know what to expect in 2023.
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