The Rundown: Week 10

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 10. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Texans @ Bengals, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Texans’ OL (8th) > the Bengals’ DL (24th) as the week’s biggest mismatch. The Texans have an elite pass-protecting left tackle in Laremy Tunsil and right guard in Shaq Mason with two functional starters at left guard and right tackle. They do have third-string center Michael Deiter in the lineup, but he is more easily masked in this scheme with the players around him and. The Bengals do have one stud rusher in Trey Hendrickson who can beat Tunsil if given enough opportunities, but aside from him are outclassed as pass-rushers by these pass-blockers.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Trenton Irwin ($3,000 DK, $5,600 FD) as a great play on both sites. Irwin looks set to step into the Tyler Boyd role this week, while Boyd should get the bump up to 2-WR sets with Tee Higgins looking unlikely to suit up for Cincinnati. At stone-minimum prices, Irwin figures to be a popular option across all formats this week, and he projects for 5.9 targets.
• Top Plays: The ETR team listed all of Joe Burrow (DK 1st; FD 1st), Joe Mixon (DK 1st; FD 2nd), Ja’Marr Chase (DK 1st; FD 1st), Dalton Schultz (DK 2nd; FD 4th) and Tank Dell (DK 4th; FD 3rd) as top plays this week.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Missing Nico Collins (calf) hurts, but Cincinnati has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy quarterback points and sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.1). C.J. Stroud is low-end QB1 playable here.”
• “With Cincinnati playing middling run defense, Devin Singletary is a volume-driven RB2/flex with a non-compelling box-score ceiling.”
• “At wide receiver, Tank Dell and Noah Brown project to dominate wideout snaps with Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson working in behind them. I’m playing Dalton Schultz and Dell and fading everyone else.”
• “The Bengals have surrendered the most fantasy TE points in the league.”
• “Sans Nico against Cincinnati, Dell is a boom-bust WR2.”
• “Joe Burrow won’t have No. 2 WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) in Week 10…Ultimately, I’m viewing this as a mediocre spot for Burrow.”
• “Joe Mixon is a role-secure, workload-driven RB1/2 play in Week 10.”
• “In Higgins’ four missed games since Ja’Marr Chase entered the NFL, Chase’s per-game PPR scoring average swings from 18.7 with Higgins in the lineup to 23.3 without him. Chase has a real chance to lead the league in Week 10 targets.”
• “Trenton Irwin netted an 8/60/0 receiving line on a 76% snap rate when Higgins missed Week 5 at Arizona. Priced at or near the minimum, I’m locking in Irwin as a Week 10 DFS play.”

Saints @ Vikings, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace. The Saints rank sixth in EPA per play allowed, fourth in PFF grading, and ninth in both points and yards allowed on a per-play basis. However, they gave up 26.0 points and 337.8 yards to the Bucs, Texans, Jags, and Colts — not exactly the fiercest competition. The Saints rank first in situation-neutral pace on the season and average the fourth-most play-clock seconds remaining. As a result, their games produce the third-most combined plays. Minnesota is top 10 in situation-neutral pace and play-clock seconds, and their games produce the seventh-most combined snaps. Despite Josh Dobbs arriving mid-week and not practicing, the Vikings went to the hurry-up liberally against the Falcons (16.4%), did not drain the play clock often, and their 64.4% pass rate was just 2% below expectation.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Michael Thomas ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) in the Honorable Mentions section. Before last week, MT had between six and 10 targets in every game this season. His ceiling case remains murky at best, but he should bounce back from a volume perspective in a dome matchup with the Vikings where he projects for 6.0 targets.
• Buy Leone: Alexander Mattison ($5,500 DK, 2.3 PPG underperformance) appears in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that Mattison gets a huge usage boost with Cam Akers (Achilles) out for the season, and the Vikings having shown very little interest in giving Ty Chandler a real chance.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Even when Derek Carr is playing well, his game simply doesn’t translate positively to fantasy football.”
• “New Orleans’ backfield looks to have devolved into a three-way RBBC…Alvin Kamara remains fringe RB1/2 playable but apparently can’t be considered the full-throttle workhorse he appeared to be shortly after coming off suspension.”
• “Taysom Hill is an elite option wherever he is tight end eligible…Taysom may be the Saints’ best skill-position player at this point.”
• “Chris Olave has been inches from big plays…Now playing indoors in a plus draw, Olave is a shining-light DFS tournament play with 8+ targets in seven of his nine 2023 appearances.”
• “Michael Thomas profiles as a high-floor, suspect-ceiling WR3/flex option here.”
• “Rashid Shaheed’s big-play ability jumps off the screen each week, but his playing time is all over the place…Shaheed is a boom-bust WR3/flex option here.”
• “Juwan Johnson is a touchdown-or-bust streamer who reasonably projects for 3-5 targets here.”
• “Ranked No. 2 at his position in rushing yards (324) behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Dobbs is a legitimate QB1 play against the Saints.”
• “Presumably not trusted by O’Connell’s staff, current No. 2 back Ty Chandler has touched the ball twice since Week 3. The Saints do not present a plus draw, rendering Alexander Mattison a volume-based RB2 starter.”
• “Jordan Addison risks attracting Saints shutdown CB Marshon Lattimore’s coverage but probably won’t be shadowed. I’m backing Addison as an upside WR2, K.J. Osborn as a WR3/flex option, and T.J. Hockenson as the surefire TE1 starter he’s been all season.”

Packers @ Steelers, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)