The Rundown: Week 9

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 9. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Falcons @ Vikings, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed K.J. Osborn ($4,600DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. Osborn’s outlook took an enormous hit when Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, but he’s coming off a game where he got 28.6% of targets, and the insertion of Jaren Hall could force Minnesota to chuck it in negative game script. Efficiency is certainly a question, but Osborn is a safe bet for volume at least — he projects for 5.3 targets.
• Buy Leone: Alexander Mattison ($5,400 DK, 3.2 PPG underperformance – second-highest among all RBs) and Bijan Robinson ($6,100 DK, 2.5 PPG underperformance — third-highest among all RBs) both appear in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that Mattison is in weekly danger of getting out-touched by Cam Akers now. And Jaren Hall is starting this week.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Jaren Hall averaged nearly 30 rushing yards per start over his final two years at BYU and drew a Gardner Minshew comparison from NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein before the draft. I’d still rather tee up the Falcons’ D/ST here.”
• “Alexander Mattison hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in a single game this year and has cleared 100 yards from scrimmage once. It does help that Atlanta lost stud DT Grady Jarrett (ACL) last week. Mattison remains a low-floor RB2/flex option.”
• “Jordan Addison figures to draw A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage. I’m treating him as a WR3, K.J. Osborn as a WR4/flex, and T.J. Hockenson as a low-end TE1.”
• “Taylor Heinicke is only a Week 9 option in two-QB/Superflex leagues.”
• “Van Jefferson paced Atlanta wide receivers in Week 8 snaps and routes run and figures to do the same this week. Yet Jefferson has 29 scoreless yards on seven targets as a Falcon.”
• “The Vikings have surrendered the NFL’s 12th-most catches to tight ends (40). In Week 8, Jonnu Smith out-snapped Kyle Pitts 48 to 41 and ran one more route, although Pitts drew five targets to Smith’s one.”
• “Bijan Robinson returned atop Atlanta’s backfield pecking order in Week 8’s defeat…Robinson managed 11 touches versus Allgeier’s 8, and Cordarrelle Patterson mixed in for two carries on 12 snaps…I’m still starting him with RB1 confidence in what projects as a positive-script spot.”

Cardinals @ Browns, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Browns’ DL (5th) > the Cardinals’ OL (19th) as the week’s second-biggest mismatch. The Browns’ DL ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate, fifth in pressure percentage, second in QB knockdown percentage, and third in sacks per pass attempt. The Cardinals’ OL ranks 22nd in pass-block win rate, 30th in QB hits given up, and 15th in pressure percentage. Starting LG Elijah Wilkinson is on injured reserve. Myles Garrett is the most dominant edge rusher in football, which will present major issues for below-average starting LT D.J. Humphries and potentially a third-string left guard in Dennis Daley inside of that matchup with a trio of solid interior rushers to contend with.
• Cheap WRs:Gary Hartman listed Elijah Moore ($3,900DK, $5,500 FD) as a great play on both sites. Moore is averaging 5.5 yards per target in 2023, hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, and has a shaky QB situation. But he does have a 19.9% seasonal target share and faces off against a Charmin-soft Arizona secondary, so if there’s ever a time for him to turn those targets into fantasy points, it’s this week, where he projects for 5.7 targets.
• Buy Leone: Marquise Brown ($5,400 DK, 2.7 PPG underperformance – fourth-highest among all WRs) appears in this week’s model.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Clayton Tune draws an unforgiving Browns defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.9) and seventh-fewest fantasy QB points.”
• “Cleveland has yielded the NFL’s 10th-fewest fantasy running back points, so trying to sort out the Cards’ backfield could easily prove all for naught.”
• “I do expect Kyler Murray to start Weeks 10-18 and consider Marquise Brown and Trey McBride forward-thinking buys.”
• “The Cards have been ethered on the ground, hemorrhaging an average of 140.8 total yards and 12 all-purpose TDs to enemy running backs through eight games. Yet Cleveland’s three-way committee renders Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford mere flex options and Pierre Strong a speculative bench stash.”
• “The Cardinals have served up the NFL’s sixth-most yards to wide receivers (1,410), while Amari Cooper has a stranglehold on Cleveland’s wideout opportunity, ranking sixth in the league in Air Yards share (42%)…He’s a high-volume WR2 with WR1 upside in a plum spot like this.”
• “David Njoku logged target shares of 26% and 27% in Cleveland’s last two games. Due to subpar QB play, I’m keeping Njoku on the TE1/2 fringe.”
• “The Browns’ trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones (Lions) is expected to clear an opportunity for third-round rookie Cedric Tillman, a plus-sized (6-foot-3/213) prospect from Tennessee…He’s a bench stash in dynasty leagues.”