Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 10

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Some weeks, the paced-up matchups clearly stand out from the rest, and this is one of them. Aside from the three games listed at the top, however, it would be surprising if the remaining main-slate contests appreciably pushed the pace. Of course, we await word on Kyler Murray’s availability for the Cardinals, but even if he plays, he’ll need to bring a cattle prod to get the Panthers’ offense moving.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.

Up In Pace

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

The Bucs return after an extra week of wound licking, following their surprising loss to the (mostly) Trevor Siemian-led Saints. Typical to Tampa Bay games, it was a voluminous and high-scoring affair. Their contests average the league’s most combined plays (130) and an NFL-high 55.4 points. The Bucs aren’t operating at the same breakneck situation-neutral pace as the second half of last season — or even early in 2021 — but are still the ninth-quickest offense after registering the third-fastest pace of the week in their loss to the Saints. Tom Brady is passing at a league-high 68% clip while games are close, and the fourth-highest rate when winning by at least a touchdown — while double-digit-favorite Tampa Bay has faced the highest opponent pass rate, by far (72%). With Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown highly questionable, the Bucs’ target tree should remain tight for what projects to be a high-play-volume environment.

Opponents are throwing against Little Danny’s team with no name at the second-highest rate (65%), which makes sense considering they feature the second-worst pass defense by DVOA and PFF’s third-worst-graded coverage. Even with Washington’s offensive pass rate falling in recent weeks, we can confidently forecast plenty of balls to be in the air. Their games have produced the seventh-most combined plays (128.6), which has been aided by their top-12 situation-neutral pace. It sadly appears we will continue to wait for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s return, but Taylor Heinicke more than did his part to turn the previous meeting between these teams into a fruitful fantasy affair. In last season’s Wildcard round, the Bucs and Football Team combined for a meaty 141 snaps and 54 points, despite both defenses performing better than they have so far this year.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers