Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 5

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

A month has flown by, and we’re knee deep in it already. Some up to our necks. Managers off to an 0-4 start are already “voluntarily” planning foliage tours with their spouse or getting NHL curious. Just kidding, no one watches hockey — at least not in the fall.

Yet now is no time to lose focus. The bye weeks are upon us while we remain mired in Europe at ungodly hours — hopefully without Jaylen Warren stuck in our lineups. Falling to 0-5 spells curtains, amigo. Say hello to Brian Callahan on your way behind the tent.

The Week 5 main slate is slashed to 10 games, seven of which project to be close — if not of ideal quality. Still, there are pockets of pace to be unearthed — so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints

When bumping uglies on the bayou, you want to do it fast. This misfitted matchup at least serves us speed along with the combined 1-7 record and paltry projected total (41). The Giants delivered on the tempo launch they had been telegraphing all offseason in top pick Jaxson Dart’s first career start on Sunday. New York ranked first on the week in neutral pace relative to expectation and second only to Washington in no-huddle rate (35%). It was not all rainbows and unicorns, as stud WR Malik Nabers was lost for the year with a blown ACL, and Dart hurt his hamstring while taking more hits than a Phish show setbreak. The Giants also averaged only 3.3 yards per pass. Still, the game delivered above-average play volume despite New York only throwing at a 45% rate during neutral situations. Giants games produce the second-most combined snaps, and that should stay elevated now that their pace is as well. Fortunately, they face a team allowing the second-most points on a per-snap basis.

The Saints also know a thing or two about elevated pace and play volume on offense — and underwhelming efficiency. New Orleans’ contests have ranked first in combined snaps for the entire season. The Saints remain far ahead of the league in neutral pace, and rank second in no-huddle rate on the year. They have, however, slowed on a relative basis since Week 1, while their contests away from the Superdome have yielded 123 snaps per game, versus a meaty 133 snaps in two home games. Like the Giants, the Saints have leaned run-heavy in neutral scripts, and New York’s defense is facing the second-highest neutral pass rate (66%) due more to playing pass-leaning opponents than their own stout run stopping. New York’s defense ranks dead last in both rushing EPA per play and success rate surrendered, so we shouldn’t expect a Spencer Rattler-heavy plan. Even with a run-leaning approach on both sides, when two offenses play fast against each other, the matchup rarely lacks for play volume. Aesthetics may be another story.