Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 6

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

From a formerly fast offense that confirmed hopeful Week 4 signs of a rebound in Week 5, to a seemingly broken offense that showed its first signs of life on Sunday, we have a lot to get to — so let’s dispense with the pleasantries and jump right in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals

Coming off an early bye, the Seahawks should hit the ground flying in Cincinnati on Sunday. Seattle ranks first in situation-neutral pace and eighth in pass rate while games remain close. As a result, their contests have been voluminous — ranking fourth in average combined plays and seventh in total points. With the fourth-most points on a per-snap basis, the Seahawks will be fruitful for fantasy if play volume is elevated. Seattle has faced only a 59% situation-neutral pass rate so far (19th), but they’ve also taken on run-leaning offenses in the Lions, Panthers, and a Giants team trying to keep Daniel Jones’ head on his shoulders. The Bengals are going to test the Seahawks’ pass coverage, which is graded 23rd by PFF and ranked 27th in dropback EPA before facing the Giants’ grounded aerial attack. That rabid pass rush we saw chasing Jones around in primetime was primarily a function of New York’s wet-paper-bag offensive line.

The Bengals not only had Joe Burrow moving more nimbly inside and outside of the pocket in Week 5, but the entire offense played faster and passed more. Snapping the ball with more than 10 seconds remaining on the play clock for the first time all season, Cincinnati ranked seventh fastest on the week and mixed no-huddle into their early drives. We’re (mostly) back, baby. They threw at a 63% clip during neutral situations and currently rank third on the season. The Bengals-Cardinals game produced a Week 5-high 136 combined snaps, which is a major leap from the 123-play average (28th) Cincinnati’s contests had coming in. While they only hit on two plays of 15+ yards and still rank last in explosive play rate (3.8%), anyone who saw the bomb to Ja’Marr Chase needed a drool rag. The Bengals’ offense isn’t fully clicking yet — Tee Higgins remained out and Joe Mixon still makes lemons out of lemonade — but fears of a lost season should be in the rearview after an up-tempo meeting with the Seahawks.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Our first divisional rematch of the season comes early and won’t offer a replay of the Jags-Colts Week 1 game with Anthony Richardson on the shelf. Yet, there are potentially more up-tempo elements in play on Sunday. We almost certainly will see a higher pass rate from the visitors, as there will be fewer quarterback runs and Gardner Minshew threw at an appreciably higher clip during his Week 3 start than we’ve seen in any other Colts game this year. Indianapolis did not play slowly under Minshew despite the road setting in Baltimore, as the Colts averaged 27 seconds per snap while the game remained close. That would rank as the third-fastest pace of the season. They also led the week in situation-neutral no-huddle rate (27%) — topping the second-place Jaguars with ease (15%). Propelled by the Colts’ second-fastest situation-neutral pace, their contests rank second in combined play volume (131.2).

Jaguars games average the fifth-most combined snaps, while no Week 5 contest was more voluminous than their victory over the Bills and two weeks of British TV. While Jacksonville played at a middling pace (13th), they increased the game’s tempo with 10 plays of at least 15 yards. No team had more in Week 5, and it was a significant improvement for a Jaguars offense that had ranked ninth lowest in explosive play rate through the season’s opening month. It helped that the Jaguars faced the Bills’ defense, which is tied for the fourth-most explosive passes surrendered — the same number, coincidentally, as the Colts have allowed. Not having Richardson involved caps this matchup’s ceiling and likely lowers Indianapolis’ floor, but it’s comforting to know the ascending Jaguars still play at a top-10 pace when up by at least a touchdown. Even if overall production is dampened by this being a divisional rematch, there’s still plenty of fantasy meat on the bone from Week 1’s 138-snap, 52-point barnburner.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams