Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 8

Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Like a play-volume oasis, Week 7 delivered the most offensive snaps per game of the season, by far. We averaged 125.3 plays over 15 contests, lapping the previous high of 123.3 from Week 2. There were nine contests that blew by the seasonal combined-snaps average (122), including four that topped it by at least 10 plays. This is despite Tua Tagovailoa capitulating in Cleveland (110 combined snaps) and whatever it was that Geno Smith left in the punch bowl (107).

Before we call an end to our long national nightmare of diminished play volume, it should be noted that last season topped this year’s Week 7 average on six occasions — and that was in a down year for snaps. If nothing else, this is a reminder of the fickle nature of raw play volume, and how tight end-game scenarios can easily tack 10-15% onto snap counts even if neither offense plays particularly fast — or is particularly good (Panthers-Jets, 130 snaps).

Or, if they’re fast-paced outfits like the Giants and Broncos, things can go sideways quickly (145 snaps) — and we do enjoy sideways. Hopefully there’s something similar to dig up this week, so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos

Arguably the league’s best offense, the Cowboys are getting healthier in time to face their toughest defensive opponent outdoors in Denver. They are coming off of CeeDee Lamb’s triumphant return during a game that yielded a combined 66 points and 126 plays. It would have been more if Jayden Daniels stayed on the field to keep Washington competitive. With a field-goal spread against the Broncos, the game script projects to be far tighter on Sunday. Combined with the sixth-fastest neutral pace and their No. 1 wideout’s presence, it should be enough for the matchup to overcome the dampening effects of Denver’s defense. Lamb’s return not only sparked a Cowboys offense that’s second in scoring and second in yards on a per-play basis — it added explosive-play juice. Dallas averages eight 15+ yard plays with Lamb playing a full game, and 5.5 in the games he didn’t. That’s the difference between third most and 25th most on the full season.