Thorn’s Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches: Week 7

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 7. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 7 Bye Week: Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets & Titans

DL Rankings – Week 7

1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Browns
4. Eagles – DT Jalen Carter returned to practice on Thursday after missing last week’s game with a knee injury.
5. Steelers – DT Cameron Heyward is on short-term injured reserve.
6. Jets
7. Titans – DT Teair Tart missed practice on Wednesday after missing the last two weeks with a toe injury.
8. Commanders
9. Chiefs
10. Packers
11. Bills – DT DaQuan Jones is likely out for the year with a pec injury. DT Ed Oliver missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a toe injury but is “hopeful” to practice on Friday.
12. Chargers
13. Lions
14. Giants
15. Raiders
16. Rams
17. Jaguars
18. Panthers
19. Texans
20. Dolphins
21. Colts
22. Falcons
23. Vikings
24. Bengals
25. Bucs
26. Ravens
27. Patriots – Edge rusher Matt Judon is on short-term injured reserve with a biceps injury.
28. Saints
29. Broncos
30. Cardinals
31. Seahawks
32. Bears

OL Rankings – Week 7

1. Eagles – RT Lane Johnson injured his ankle last week and missed practice on Wednesday, but he is expected to play even at less than 100%. RG Cam Jurgens is on short-term injured reserve.
2. Cowboys
3. Chiefs
4. Browns
5. Lions – LG Jonah Jackson missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury that also kept him out of the lineup last week.
6. Ravens
7. 49ers – LT Trent Williams & LG Aaron Banks missed practice on Thursday with ankle injuries (S.F. plays on Monday night, so Thursday is technically their first, not second, day of practice this week).
8. Chargers
9. Bills
10. Bucs
11. Texans
12. Jaguars
13. Packers – LT David Bakhtiari was placed on injured reserve.
14. Vikings
15. Cardinals
16. Falcons
17. Colts – RT Braden Smith missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with hip and wrist injuries after missing last week.
18. Bengals
19. Rams
20. Jets – RG Joe Tippmann is expected to be out multiple weeks with a quadriceps injury suffered last week.
21. Dolphins – LT Terron Armstead suffered a knee injury in his first game of the season last week and is out for the foreseeable future. C Conner Williams missed practice on Wednesday with the groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but returned on Thursday in a limited fashion.
22. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was placed on short-term injured reserve and is expected to be out again this week.
23. Broncos
24. Patriots – LG Cole Strange is likely out this week with a knee injury that has kept him out of four games this season.
25. Raiders
26. Panthers
27. Commanders
28. Bears – LT Braxton Jones was placed on short-term injured reserve after injuring his neck in Week 2.
29. Saints – RT Ryan Ramczyk, his backup Landon Young, & OL James Hurst are all out this week with injuries.
30. Titans
31. Steelers
32. Giants – LT Andrew Thomas, RT Evan Neal, and C John Michael Schmitz missed practice on Wednesday. Neal returned on Thursday, but he reportedly did not look healthy enough to play this week.

Biggest Week 7 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Commanders DL (8th) > Giants OL (32nd)