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This column refers to players with under 50% ownership on Yahoo (this week some players that have been mentioned in the waiver column for several consecutive weeks, like Laviska Shenault, have been omitted). Further, I routinely tell users that FAB bids are very league-, team-, and situation-dependent. That’s why I offer ETR subscribers the ability to either DM me @RyanReynNJ on Twitter or email me at [email protected] if they have a waiver wire related question.
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater – 8% FAB Budget (Viable this week and next)
Kirk Cousins – 5% (Usable in three of the next four weeks, below Garoppolo for this week)
Baker Mayfield – 4%
Jimmy Garoppolo – 4%
Sam Darnold – 1%
Tua Tagovailoa – 0%
Running Backs
Note: In leagues where Chase Edmonds is still available, and he shouldn’t be in any for ETR subs, he would warrant a max FAB bid. Jamaal Williams, Giovani Bernard, and J.K Dobbins are all valuable fantasy assets who should be pursued more aggressively if the starting running back in front of them is trending towards missing Week 8.
JaMycal Hasty – 20% FAB Budget
DeeJay Dallas — 10%
Zack Moss – 10%
Joshua Kelley – 10%
Wayne Gallman – 10%
La’Mical Perine – 8%
Gus Edwards – 8%
Tevin Coleman – 5%
Eno Benjamin — 5%
Royce Freeman – 3%
Running Back Stashes
Note: Running backs in this category have limited current value. However, each of them could become difference-making fantasy assets if the starter on their team were to miss any time. That’s why we recommend stashing these high-upside running backs now while their cost is low.
Alexander Mattison
Tony Pollard
Rams RBs
Duke Johnson
Benny Snell Jr.
Brian Hill
Running Backs: Deep Leagues
Note: Running backs in this category are only worth considering in leagues with very deep benches (20-plus roster spots).
A.J. Dillon
Kerryon Johnson
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk – 25% FAB Budget
Antonio Brown – 25%
Rashard Higgins – 15%
Scotty Miller — 8%
Sterling Shepard – 8%
Cole Beasley – 8%
Jalen Reagor – Stash
Alshon Jeffery – Stash
Wide Receivers: Mid-Range
Note: Receivers in this category are worth considering as back-of-the-bench assets in home leagues, but they could be potentially playable assets in deep and/or highly-competitive leagues.
Jets WRs
Saints WRs
Larry Fitzgerald
Randall Cobb
Russell Gage
Nelson Agholor
Darnell Mooney
Preston Williams
Anthony Miller
Wide Receivers: Deep Leagues
Note: Receivers in this category are worth considering in leagues with very deep rosters (20-plus roster spots).
Josh Reynolds
Jalen Guyton
David Moore
Zach Pascal
Marcus Johnson
Tyler Johnson
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert – 10% FAB Budget (Still injured)
Eric Ebron – 8%
Logan Thomas – 5%
Gerald Everett – 5%
Richard Rodgers – 3%
Colts TEs
Tight Ends: Deep Leagues
Browns TEs
Seahawks TEs
Vikings TEs
Defenses
Green Bay Packers Defense vs Vikings – 2% FAB Budget
Falcons Defense vs Broncos (Week 9)
Titans Defense vs Bears (Week 9)
Kickers
Ryan Succop – 1% FAB Budget
Drop Considerations
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gardner Minshew, Cam Newton
RB: Sony Michel, Nyheim Hines, Rex Burkhead, Adrian Peterson, J.D. McKissic
WR: Odell Beckham Jr., DeSean Jackson, Julian Edelman
TE: Austin Hooper
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater, Panthers, 8% FAB Budget: Week 8’s Thursday Night matchup between the Panthers and Falcons has a lower than expected 49-point game total. Still, Bridgewater is in an excellent spot as a 3-point home favorite with his strong skill position group against a Falcons defense that has given up 30 or more points in four of their seven contests this season. Bridgewater is also playable next week against the Chiefs.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings, 5%: The Vikings head to Green Bay in Week 8 for a divisional game with some shootout potential, as the Packers have scored at least 30 points in five of their six games this season, and the 54.5 game total is tied for the highest of the Week 8 slate. While this contest will come with some pass rush vs offensive line concerns for Minnesota, the opening day contest between these two teams had a final score of Packers 43 and Vikings 34. The combination of these broad factors makes Cousins a low-floor, high-ceiling option for quarterback streamers. Cousins has even more appealing matchups in Week 9 vs Detroit and in Week 11 vs Dallas.
Baker Mayfield, Browns, 4%: Mayfield lit up the rival Bengals last week for 297 yards passing and five touchdowns, showing that he is capable of a massive ceiling game. In Week 8 vs the Raiders, the Browns are 2.5-point home favorites with a very appealing 54-point game total. While the season-ending injury to Odell Beckham Jr. has a negative impact for the Browns offense, Cleveland still has enough firepower to hang significant points on a Raiders defense that has surrendered at least 30 points in five of their six games this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers, 4%: Garoppolo’s 49ers are only 3-point road underdogs against the rival Seahawks in Week 8 with a 54-point game total, tied for second highest of the slate and a line that my first instinct is to bet against (meaning on Seattle). With opposing quarterback Russell Wilson playing at an MVP level and the Seattle defense giving up at least 23 points in all six of their games this season, there is a very clear path for Garoppolo to have multiple touchdown passes against the rival Seahawks in Week 8.
Sam Darnold, Jets, 1%: The 2020 Jets have been terrible and unreliable, period. However, Week 8’s matchup with the high-powered Chiefs potentially creates a game environment where Darnold can stat accumulate in garbage time as a near 3-touchdown road underdog. That’s an extremely volatile play, as the Jets have a meager implied team total of 14 points. But we can reasonably expect the need for the Jets to be very pass-heavy while playing from behind as massive underdogs.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins, 0%: Tua makes his starting debut at home against a very tough Rams defense, which makes him a very volatile Week 8 play. However, with Tua set to take Miami through the rest of the 2020 season, he is worth adding in two-quarterback formats as well as deep leagues that rarely have available starting quarterbacks on the waiver wire. I would not be in a hurry to overspend for Tua unless that was driven by need, as his Dolphins do not have as much offensive firepower as rookie signal callers Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert. Their success this season seems to be driving Tua enthusiasm to some extent, where I’m treating this situation as if Tua has a significantly more uphill path to success in the short-term than either Burrow or Herbert due to being surrounded by less talent.
Running Backs
Note: In leagues where Chase Edmonds is still available, he would warrant a max FAB bid. Jamaal Williams, Giovani Bernard, and J.K Dobbins are all valuable fantasy assets who should be pursued more aggressively if the starting running back in front of them is trending towards missing Week 8.
JaMycal Hasty, 49ers, 20% FAB Budget: With Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson still out for multiple games, Tevin Coleman’s status still in question and Jerick McKinnon more or less being given Week 7 off on purpose, Hasty is in position to be the 49ers’ lead back as San Francisco heads to Seattle in Week 8. While we should plan for Hasty and McKinnon to split the Week 8 workload to some degree, Hasty should be added in the vast majority of leagues due to the plug-and-play nature of the 49ers backfield (meaning whoever sees the lion’s share of the running back workload in this offense is valuable for fantasy purposes).
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks, 10%: What a mess here, as Chris Carson’s mid-foot sprain is likely to lead to him missing some time in one of football’s best offenses. Carlos Hyde would be in fantastic position and warrant a 25% plus FAB bid if he was ready to go, but his status is also in some question with a hamstring injury. Rashaad Penny isn’t expected to be ready to go just yet, otherwise he would also warrant a 25% FAB bid if he was in position to take the lead in this backfield over the next few weeks. Travis Homer is also currently dealing with a knee contusion, putting his Week 8 status in some doubt as well. That leaves rookie DeeJay Dallas as the only healthy Seahawks running back as of this moment, which makes him worth adding in deep leagues, at minimum, while possibly warranting a 15% plus FAB bid in general just in case Hyde is also sidelined. Patrick Carr could very well be called up from the practice squad due to the various injuries at running back for Seattle, and it’s also possible that currently retired veteran Marshawn Lynch could at least receive an inquiry about his interest in playing due to his familiarity with the Seahawks offense. As you can see, this is an extremely difficult situation to manage and it will require last minute research to (hopefully) gauge the status of the Seattle backfield over the next few weeks. It may still require a leap of faith if you intend to add a Seattle running back off the waiver wire this week. For me, I will likely acquire Hyde or Penny at a reasonable cost while maybe trying to get one of the other potential options for free in spots where I can easily fit them.
Zack Moss, Bills, 10%: The Bills backfield has not been very valuable for fantasy purposes this season, at least not to this point. However, Moss and Devin Singletary each had 10 touches against the Jets in Week 7 (although Singletary had two more targets than Moss). We should expect there to be some form of timeshare between the two in the short-term, with Moss having some chance of taking on a larger role as Singletary has not really done anything to this point to warrant a primary back’s workload.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers, 10%: Currently, the Chargers backfield is a nearly unplayable mess in the absence of Austin Ekeler. In Week 7 vs Jacksonville, both Kelley and Justin Jackson had five receptions (Kelley had one more target) while Kelley led Jackson in carries 12-to-5. We should expect the Chargers’ backfield committee to be relatively even between Kelley and Jackson while Ekeler is out, with either back possibly having “the hot hand” and receiving some form of a workload spike. That said, it will be hard to predict which running back will see more work than the other in any given week based off the last two Ekeler-less contests.
Wayne Gallman, Giants, 10%: Devonta Freeman suffered an ankle injury last Thursday Night in Philadelphia, opening the door for Gallman to handle 10 carries and five targets against the rival Eagles. Freeman’s injury status remains murky to this point, and the Giants have a terrible matchup against the Buccaneers in Week 8 on Monday Night Football. With that said, Gallman once again looked solid in relief duty and he would be a passing-game asset if Freeman were to miss any time. Speaking of, if Freeman is expected to miss any significant time, Gallman would warrant a greater FAB bid than the 10% suggestion currently listed.
La’Mical Perine, Jets, 8%: Perine and the ageless wonder Frank Gore both had 11 carries last week against Buffalo (Perine also had three targets), and Perine certainly looked more explosive than the veteran Gore. With that said, the Jets offense is historically bad and any Jets running back has a very limited ceiling. Still, Perine is worth stashing just in case the Jets offense shows any signs of improvement as the season progresses.
Gus Edwards, Ravens, 8%: If Mark Ingram misses time, and he probably should, Edwards would be involved in some form of timeshare with rookie running back J.K. Dobbins. Edwards has been a solid producer in the Ravens backfield, though he would have a tough Week 8 matchup against the rival Steelers.
Tevin Coleman, 49ers, 5%: Injuries are mounting in the 49ers backfield and that makes the idea of grabbing and stashing Coleman in the hopes that he’s the first to return from injury a smart play for a lot of fantasy managers.
Eno Benjamin, Cardinals, 5%: With Kenyan Drake sidelined with a high ankle sprain, Benjamin would become the next man up if anything were to happen to Chase Edmonds.
Royce Freeman, Broncos, 3%: With Phillip Lindsay in the concussion protocol, Freeman would be behind Melvin Gordon in the running back pecking order for Denver.
Running Back Stashes
Note: Running backs in this category have limited current value. However, each of them could become difference-making fantasy assets if the starter on their team were to miss any time. That’s why we recommend stashing these high-upside running backs now while their cost is low.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings: A negative game script hurt Mattison big time in Week 6’s matchup with Atlanta (Minnesota’s last game before their bye). Despite that, Mattison would essentially be worth 20% FAB for every game that Dalvin Cook was projected to miss.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys: If Ezekiel Elliott were to miss any time, Pollard would not be quite as valuable as normal due to the injury nightmare that is haunting the Dallas offensive line at the moment, but he would still be a valuable fantasy asset even in that current reality.
Rams RBs: Malcolm Brown sees significant secondary running-back usage in most contests for the Rams while Cam Akers is a distant third in the pecking order. Though, Akers did look good on his loan carry that was negated by penalty and for me, that was the first time this season that I understood the Akers enthusiasm. He looked like a completely (much worse) different guy on opening day.
Duke Johnson, Texans: Maybe someday an NFL coach will give Duke some real run. As it stands now, Duke would only become a valuable fantasy asset if David Johnson were to miss time.
Benny Snell Jr., Steelers: Snell would be the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh if James Conner were to miss any time.
Brian Hill, Falcons: If Todd Gurley were to go down, Hill would get the first crack at replacing his workload.
Running Backs: Deep Leagues
Note: Running backs in this category are only worth considering in leagues with very deep benches (20-plus roster spots).
A.J. Dillon, Packers: With Aaron Jones sidelined, Dillon had five carries for 11 yards against the Texans in Week 7, in clear reserve duty behind Jamaal Williams.
Kerryon Johnson, Lions: It’s almost surreal to see Kerryon’s name in this section, but he is the clear third running back in the Lions’ pecking order and would need an injury to Adrian Peterson or D’Andre Swift to see meaningful work.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers, 25% FAB Budget: With Deebo Samuel set to miss multiple games and a Week 8 potential shootout against the rival Seahawks on the horizon, it could be worth getting aggressive in pursuing Aiyuk, who has already shown that he can be a real asset.
Antonio Brown, Buccaneers, 25%: Brown is a fascinating case. On the one hand, Tom Brady has been sharp since the Bears beat him up in Week 5. Brady wanted Brown, he’s at least somewhat familiar with Brown on the field due to Antonio’s short stint with the Patriots, we all know that Brown is a Hall-of-Fame-caliber talent at his best, and Tampa Bay is a legitimate contender now. On the other hand, Brown has barely played football in two years and he’s also going to be competing for targets with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski, among others. Additionally, a year ago none of us had any idea about what exactly was going on with Brown from a mental health standpoint. So, ultimately, the ceiling for Brown makes him someone that should be snatched up in every fantasy league. On the other hand, the floor is that he doesn’t even play a down for the Buccaneers. Here at Establish the Run we are looking for difference-making assets and we are not afraid of taking chances. With that in mind, for me, I have proactively grabbed Brown for very cheap and wouldn’t be in a hurry to spend major resources to acquire him in most of my spots, the exceptions being if I was trying to block someone else from obtaining his upside.
Rashard Higgins, Browns, 15%: With Odell Beckham Jr. now set to miss the rest of the year, Higgins becomes a relevant fantasy asset that should be aggressively pursued in all deep leagues. While we should not expect him to outright replace Beckham’s production, we should expect a role expansion and Higgins has shown that he can play at various points in his career, including last week.
Scotty Miller, Buccaneers, 8%: Miller is coming off a 6-109-1 line on nine targets against the Raiders last week. That said, Miller has extreme weekly competition for targets and his production is likely to continue being very volatile as a result. However, with Chris Godwin already ruled out for Week 8’s matchup with the Giants, Miller is in excellent position to exceed expectations again this Monday Night.
Sterling Shepard, Giants, 8%: I’m not in any kind of hurry to heavily invest in any Giants fantasy assets at this point. With that in mind, better days could be ahead for Shepard and the Giants as a whole, which means that Shepard should be acquired in most leagues that do not have strict bench restrictions.
Cole Beasley, Bills, 8%: With John Brown sidelined and virtually every tight end affiliated with the Bills organization unable to go against the Jets, Beasley caught 11-of-12 targets for 112 yards last week. While we should not consider that to be the new norm, Beasley has extra value while Brown is out.
Jalen Reagor, Eagles, Stash: Reagor is still sidelined currently, but it would make sense to grab and stash the Eagles rookie.
Alshon Jeffery, Eagles, Stash: Jeffery is also worth grabbing as his status was in question last Thursday Night against the Giants, meaning his return could be imminent.
Wide Receivers: Mid-Range
Note: Receivers in this category are worth considering as back-of-the-bench assets in home leagues, but they could be potentially playable assets in deep and/or highly-competitive leagues.
Jets WRs: Breshad Perriman is currently in the concussion protocol. If he can go, he’s a very interesting high-upside play against the Chiefs in Week 8. Jeff Smith, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios would be the next considerations behind both Perriman and Jamison Crowder.
Saints WRs: Michael Thomas missed Week 7 and there are some unexpected whispers that he’s available through trade. Emmanuel Sanders is on the COVID-19 list and will miss the next two games. That leaves Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway (8-75 off 10 targets last week) as the next men up for the Saints.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: Fitzgerald is a future Hall of Famer whose best days are behind him. But he is worth considering in some deeper leagues simply as a receiver getting significant playing time in a high-performing offense.
Randall Cobb, Texans: Cobb is a solid, but unspectacular slot option capable of a spike week as long as Deshaun Watson is his quarterback.
Russell Gage, Falcons: After a very hot start, Gage is back to being in his reality-based role: very stable usage in a good offense with a chance for a spike week here and there. He’s an excellent PPR superflex option.
Nelson Agholor, Raiders: Agholor has at least 14 points and a touchdown in each of his last three games.
Darnell Mooney, Bears: The Bears do not have a good offense, but Mooney is proving himself to be an absolute steal as a fifth-round pick for the Bears. Mooney is second in the pecking order for Bears receivers and not only is his speed an asset, but he’s more of a complete player than many realize. He is a dynasty target for me.
Preston Williams, Dolphins: We don’t know if the switch to Tua Tagovailoa will be good or bad for Williams, and that alone means there is an opportunity to buy low in this instance.
Anthony Miller, Bears: Miller is now third in the pecking order for Bears wide receivers, but his usage Monday Night was somewhat encouraging.
Wide Receivers: Deep Leagues
Note: Receivers in this category are worth considering in leagues with very deep rosters (20-plus roster spots).
Josh Reynolds, Rams: Reynolds is bringing some much-needed burst to the Rams offense, as he had a bit of a surprising 4-52-1 on eight targets Monday Night against the stingy Bears defense.
Jalen Guyton, Chargers: Guyton does not see big usage, but over his last three games he has receptions of 70, 49, and 72 yards. The Chargers just started a great schedule run, and Guyton is a Keenan Allen or Mike Williams injury away from an expanded role.
David Moore, Seahawks: It makes sense to have Russell Wilson pass catchers in deep leagues.
Zach Pascal, Colts: I’m not generally enthusiastic about Colts pass catchers this season, but Indianapolis has a very appealing matchup with the Lions in Week 8.
Marcus Johnson, Colts: I’m not generally enthusiastic about Colts pass catchers this season, but Indianapolis has a very appealing matchup with the Lions in Week 8.
Tyler Johnson, Buccaneers: With Chris Godwin already ruled out for Week 8’s contest with the Giants and his Week 9 status also in some question, Johnson would be in line for an uptick in playing time and opportunity.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert, Eagles, 10% FAB Budget (Still injured): Goedert is still injured, but if he’s available in your league I’d be more aggressive about acquiring him as that window is getting closer to completely shutting each and every week.
Eric Ebron, Steelers, 8%: Much like our Pat Thorman, I’ve always been an Ebron guy and I’ve never quite understood why he’s not a more bankable fantasy asset. That said, he’s received between four and eight targets in each of his last five games and that in itself is worth quite a bit at the tight end position. Couple his talent with the Steelers being the only undefeated team left in football and you have a pretty good case for taking a shot on Ebron.
Logan Thomas, Washington, 5%: Those with faith in Thomas’s usage were rewarded last week against Dallas as Thomas caught all four of his targets for 60 yards and a score. Going forward, quarterback instability is the biggest impediment to Thomas being a solid fantasy asset.
Gerald Everett, Rams, 5%: With Tyler Higbee sidelined, Everett caught 4-of-5 targets for 28 yards and a score. In general, Everett has always been a more explosive talent than Higbee. How useful either Rams tight end will be going forward will depend on playing time.
Richard Rodgers, Eagles, 3%: While Rodgers played the Giants in Week 7, he caught 6-of-8 targets for 85 yards and we’re interested in Eagles tight ends that see significant playing time.
Colts TEs: The issue with the Colts is Trey Burton (currently the most valuable of the group with ease) Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox each see legitimate playing time when all are healthy and thus collectively cut into each other’s opportunity long-term.
Tight Ends: Deep Leagues
Browns TEs: With Austin Hooper out, both Harrison Bryant (4-56-2) and David Njoku (2-20-1) had productive outings in Week 7’s shootout with the Bengals. Bryant also led Njoku in playing time.
Seahawks TEs: Greg Olsen and Will Dissly are relatively equal parts of a tight end committee of sorts in Seattle.
Vikings TEs: Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph are both volatile plays, in a volatile Vikings offense. However, Minnesota has strong matchups coming with Week 8 in Green Bay, Week 9 vs Detroit, and Week 11 vs Dallas.
Defenses
Green Bay Packers Defense vs Vikings, 2% FAB Budget: The Packers’ pass rush will have the advantage against the Vikings’ offensive line, which is a recipe for upside against a struggling Minnesota offense should the Packers play from ahead as expected.
Falcons Defense vs Broncos (Week 9): This is essentially a bet against Drew Lock for a cover-3 style defense, playing a home game against a volatile, uncommon opponent. That said, the floor here is very low and readily-available defenses will be thin in Week 9.
Titans Defense vs Bears (Week 9): Betting against the Bears offense is a reasonable play in itself. That said, the Bears offense has struggled specifically against significant pass rushes. While Chicago’s trip to Tennessee will be a difficult one for the Bears, I wouldn’t quite classify the Titans’ pass rush as a significant one.
Kickers
Ryan Succop, Buccaneers, 1% FAB Budget: Generally, I want to target kickers in potential shootout spots (ideally indoors), where the targeted offense isn’t finishing scoring drives at a rate like Seattle currently is. Unfortunately, one of those options are not available this week. So, instead I would play Succop as an almost shockingly 10.5-point road favorite this Monday Night against the Giants. The theory here is that the Buccaneers are going to move the ball on the Giants defense for much of the night. If the Giants are going to even flirt with covering this line, it will most likely be behind Tampa Bay drives ending in field goals rather than touchdowns. Considering how well the Buccaneers offense has performed over the past two weeks, I’m comfortable with taking that upside shot in this spot.
