Evan Silva’s Matchups: Commanders at Falcons

Washington @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 22.5, Commanders 20

Fresh off a mini-bye following last Thursday night’s blowout loss to Chicago, the Commanders present an ongoing attack target for enemy D/STs. Washington let up five sacks and 11 QB hits to a Bears defense that entered Week 5 with two sacks in four games. OC Eric Bieniemy’s flawed offensive designs allowed repeated free rushers and unblocked defenders to terrorize Sam Howell, who is on pace to take (by far) a league-record 99 sacks. Beneath Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz dome, I’m also willing to stream Howell as a bye-week fill-in QB1. He’s topped 17 fantasy points in four of five games and scored a season-best 26.4 last Thursday. … Down 27-3 at the half last week, the Commanders completely abandoned the run. Pass-game specialist Antonio Gibson out-snapped Brian Robinson 38 to 25, yet Robinson out-touched Gibson 10 to 4. With a 2.5-point spread, Sunday’s game projects as much closer, which should allow Robinson to convincingly retake lead-back duties. On the season, Robinson is still out-touching Gibson 15.2 to 5.0 per game. The Falcons have played stout run defense this year — holding enemy backs to 3.73 yards per carry and zero all-purpose TDs — yet Robinson has earned RB2/flex treatment. Gibson is not a viable play.

Howell’s 2023 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 31; Jahan Dotson 30; Curtis Samuel 27; Logan Thomas 25; Gibson 16; Cole Turner 12; Robinson 11; Dyami Brown and John Bates 10. … Even as Washington’s target and receiving (25/261/1) leader, McLaurin’s target share (17%) has largely underwhelmed, and he is the Commanders’ likeliest candidate for Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage.