You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.
In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 619 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.
For more tournament content, check out our projections, Gary Hartman’s GPP Leverage Article, and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.
They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
QUARTERBACK
Joe Burrow ($6,800 DK, $8,200 FD) – Fresh off his victory versus the Bills, Burrow looks all the way back. Burrow has put up over 25 DK points in three of his last four games, and he faces a Texans team that gave up 265 yards, two touchdowns, and a near 120.0 QB rating to Baker Mayfield. Despite Tee Higgins’ absence, Burrow has a fantastic floor/ceiling combo and is $100 cheaper than C.J. Stroud on the other side of this game (on DraftKings). Sign us up.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FD) – 2023 has not been 2022 for Geno Smith. He only has one game over 16 DraftKings points all season, and he has three instances of games in which he scored single-digit points. Yet, still, he flashed a 26-point ceiling in Week 2 and he gets what figures to be his highest-upside spot of the year, home against a Commanders team that is averaging 281.5 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns allowed per game to opposing QBs since Week 2. Throw in the fact that his price is super friendly on both sites, and Geno has a very nice DFS outlook this week.
RUNNING BACK
Tony Pollard ($7,300 DK, $7.800 FD) – If it’s not this week for Tony Pollard, there is certainly a chance it’s not happening for the Cowboys RB in 2023. While there is no doubt he’s been disappointing during the first half of the year, Pollard gets a fantastic spot in Week 10, versus a Giants team that figures to have their defense on the field the entire game given their implied total of 11 points. Pollard’s lone 20-point DK effort came against this same Giants team in Week 1, and game script should work well in his favor here.
Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK, $7,700 FD) – Mixon’s role remains elite, and he has had more production/efficiency to go along with it over the past couple of weeks. He’s found the end zone in two straight games, while also adding eight catches on an 11.1% target share, a number that could very well increase with no Tee Higgins this week. He also faces a Texans team that has given up an average of 5.2 catches and 42 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, while Mixon seems like a shoo-in for around 15 carries or more. His $6,200 price tag jumps out on a slate where RB profiles on the weaker side.
Bijan Robinson ($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD) – Call us crazy for putting Robinson on this list, as Arthur Smith’s malpractice surrounding his usage continues (Robinson only handled 44% of RB touches last week, while only appearing on 60.1% of snaps), but still, the price, talent, and matchup are too good to ignore here. We hope a light bulb goes off in Arthur Smith’s head, and Vegas seems to think it may as the over 12.5 carries seem to be a heavy favorite on sportsbooks this week. However, even if that 45-50% rush share continues, Bijan has a role in the passing game and a great matchup with a Cardinals team that has been gashed by opposing RBs.
WIDE RECEIVER
Marquise Brown ($5,200 DK, $6,600 FD) – Brown seems underpriced here in a matchup with a Falcons defense that stops the run but is vulnerable to big games through the air. Hollywood should also be helped by the return of Kyler Murray, whom he showed a great rapport with last season.
Tank Dell ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD) – Texans WR1 Nico Collins has been ruled out this week, but DraftKings only bumped the impressive rookie Dell’s price by $200 despite his 6/114/2 line on 11 targets in Week 9. He’ll be chalky in tournaments but looks like an excellent cash play this week.
Tyler Boyd ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD) – Still one of the best WR3s in the sport, Boyd usually appears on this list when one of Chase or Higgins is out, and unfortunately that is the case for Tee Higgins coming off of his best game of the season. Benefiting is certainly Boyd, who is underpriced for what figures to be an every-down role for a Bengals team that is in one of the more attractive game environments of the weekend.
TIGHT END
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD) – Engram is simply too cheap as the ninth-most expensive tight end on DraftKings and eighth-most expensive on FanDuel. Engram has between seven and 10 targets in every game but one this season, and that was in Week 1. Additionally, Engram’s middle-of-the-field work may be valued this week against a 49ers team that may apply some pressure to Trevor Lawrence. He’s got a solid floor for cash games.
Trey McBride ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD) – McBride has target shares of 27.8% and 40% over the past two weeks and should benefit greatly from the return of Kyler Murray. He remains underpriced as the clear second receiving option within the Cardinals’ offense.
DEFENSE
Dallas Cowboys ($4,400 DK, $5,200 FD) – One of the league’s most aggressive defenses against one of the worst OLs and Tommy DeVito.
Arizona Cardinals ($2,500 – DK Only) – The preferred punt option on DraftKings. Taylor Heinicke and Art Smith are a mess.
