Dynasty Outlook
March 12
Xavier Worthy is our WR6 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR31 in our overall dynasty ranks. There is a wide range of outcomes here simply because his size is such an outlier, and the sample size of such players to even exist at the NFL level is quite small. With that said, the speed is a singular dominant trait that we can point to and make him successful. We definitely want to see Worthy land with an elite QB to maximize his skill set. Worthy has been popularly mocked to the Chiefs, which would obviously be ideal. Overall, Worthy has a chance to see the most value change between now and the draft, but the opportunity cost to draft him should remain somewhat low given the overall strength of this class.
Profile Summary
Worthy has blazing speed as the new 40-yard dash champion of the NFL Combine (4.21). Though he is just 165 pounds, he can play both inside and outside, meaning he will not necessarily come off the field in two-WR sets for whichever team drafts him. Teams will definitely have to game plan around Worthy’s speed, which will impact the game regardless of his individual production.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 20.7
Experience — 3 years
Height — 71.25 inches
Weight — 165 pounds
Hand — 8.75 inches
Arm — 31.13 inches
Forty — 4.21 seconds
Vert — 41 inches
Broad — 131 inches
By the Numbers
Worthy was an immediate breakout as a true freshman while at Texas. He led the team in receiving yards by over 600 and, perhaps even more impressively, scored 12 receiving TDs. At 165 pounds, it’s great to see scoring prowess. Worthy was again the leading receiver in 2022, this time competing with Day 2 TE prospect Ja’Tavion Sanders in addition to likely Day 3 selection Jordan Whittington.
Worthy went over 1,000 yards for the first time in his collegiate career in 2023, but it was his TD production that fell off with Adonai Mitchell joining the team. It is worth noting that Worthy still had more catches and yards than Mitchell. Worthy worked extensively as the Longhorns’ punt returner as well, scoring a TD in his final season.
The biggest question mark for Worthy is going to be his weight. The only WR to average 15 PPR points per game at 170 pounds or less was Tank Dell, who did it as a rookie last season. If we lower the PPR threshold to 12.5 PPR points per game, DeVonta Smith gets added to the fold. The fact that Dell did it just last year is notable, but it is worth stating that he also suffered a significant injury.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Worthy to Darnell Mooney:
Worthy’s draft slotting could come down to draft-room debates weighing his elite speed versus his thin frame. Worthy will find separation if allowed to explore vertically or across the hashes against man coverage, but he lacks play strength and release quickness to defeat a quality NFL press. His quick-strike potential adds an element of danger over the top and should open wider windows for teammates to work into. He lacks the physical tools to catch when contested and needs to prove he can hold up to a more physical brand of football. Worthy is a niche prospect for teams looking to add a legit field-stretcher, but areas of concern could create a wider gap between ceiling and floor.
Daniel Jeremiah provided a more bullish comp with Marquise Brown:
Worthy has average height and a very lean frame. The newly crowned 40-yard dash king is extremely twitchy and can take the top off the defense. He plays inside and outside. He was used in a variety of ways at Texas, but he is at his best on double moves, shot plays, and pure takeoffs. He is dynamic off the line and can tap into a second and third gear down the field. He also is crispy out of the break when asked to work back downhill. His hands have been spotty over his career, but he was much more reliable this past fall than he had been before. After the catch, he has a jetpack on his back. He explodes away from defenders and racks up big plays. Overall, Worthy seems like a taller version of Hollywood Brown — you can feel his speed in every game.
Dane Brugler mentions some of the positive traits of Worthy’s game:
With an ability to weaponize his burst and breakaway speed, Worthy can win deep, separate out of breaks with full-speed route cuts, or stick his foot in the ground and fly with the ball in his hands.
He tracks the ball well, but he won’t win many 50/50 situations and needs space at the catch point to be effective.
Draft Projection
Worthy has an expected draft position of 31.2 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Franklin 31st overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft has Worthy outside of the first round, while Brugler’s has him going 32nd. Worthy is an expected top-50 pick with a chance to sneak into the late first.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Comps are difficult to come by for someone with an outlier weight/draft position combination like Worthy, but we get a lot of positive “small” WRs. One could argue that Jayden Reed and T.Y. Hilton are — at over 180 pounds — too heavy to reasonably be compared to Worthy, but the fact that they were such strong college producers is encouraging. Jordan Addison and Josh Downs are 2023 rookies with similar profiles, perhaps some proof of concept that the smaller WRs can find success. DeSean Jackson brings that same dynamic speed in a smaller frame, and is great to see on this list.
Of course, there are some cautionary tales from the smaller bodies as well. Tutu Atwell has come alive a little bit the last two seasons, but he is clearly not a primary target for a team. K.J. Hamler has struggled a lot with injury in his career with a similar body type as well. Worthy clearly has a pretty wide range of outcomes.
