1. Be cognizant of any outstanding injuries. Many times, there could be edges on unders for a player, but there is an outstanding questionable tag that could affect the projections. The Underdog WNBA account on X is a great resource to follow for any updates.
- One example is a backup PG is lined but the starting PG of the team is questionable. In this case, the backup PG could be in line for a big projection boost if the starting PG is ruled out.
- Another example is one questionable player affecting projections throughout the team. An example would be a player with a high usage rate (like A’ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark, etc.) being questionable. If a player like that were to miss, the points projections of all other players on the team would get a boost since they will have to absorb all of the usage that will be missing from their absence.
2. Understanding bets that could be correlated
- If projections are showing a starting center with unders across many categories, and conversely projections are showing the backup center from the same team with overs across many categories, that’s a clear sign the market is in disagreement with the minutes allocation for this position. In this case, while there would be two different bets on the centers, they are essentially betting on one outcome.
- If a starting player is going to miss a game and projections are showing an over on one bench player and an under on another playing a similar position, it’s likely the market is in disagreement with how the playing time will be distributed between those bench players to fill in for the starting player that is going to miss.
3. Looking out for bets showing on a systemic team level
- If you see a team with a lot of players showing unders or overs in a single category, the market is likely in disagreement with overall team projections. One example could be projections showing unders on a lot of players from one team’s rebounds, but projections are mostly in line with market on their assists. In this case, it’s likely the market is in disagreement with how many total rebounds a team will have. While there could be multiple bets in this circumstance, they are essentially betting on the one outcome that there will be less total rebounds than the market expects.
- If lots of players’ edges are showing in general and not in one particular category, the market is likely in disagreement on how tight a team’s rotation will be. One example could be the market is expecting the team to employ a 10-player rotation, while we’re only projecting a nine-player rotation. In this case, projections are likely showing overs on multiple players and expecting the team production to be more condensed than the market is.
