Dynasty Outlook
March 5
Robinson did not disappoint at the NFL Combine, posting above-average weight-adjusted speed. In a draft class that overall seems to be lacking, it would be surprising to see Robinson make it past the first round in April. His stock won’t really change from this weekend, but it feels more solidified.
Feb. 15
Robinson is the top target for rookie drafts in single-QB formats and is already the top RB in our overall dynasty ranks. Robinson should be a plug-and-play RB1 for fantasy immediately, and that is extremely tantalizing in all formats. While we currently value two of the QBs ahead of him in Superflex, that has to do more with positional value than what we think of Robinson. We have not seen a dynasty asset like this since 2018, and the 1.01 selection is likely to garner significant interest in the trade market. Whether or not you can afford to pass on Robinson will likely come down to how close your dynasty team is to competing for a title.
Profile Summary
Bijan Robinson was a highly productive three-year player who has become the highest-touted RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. The landscape of the position has changed greatly from just five years ago, and while Robinson will almost certainly find himself a Day 1 pick, it would be shocking if he were to be selected as high as Barkley was in 2018. Still, his productivity and player-level comps paint the picture of someone who will be an instant impact player at the NFL level. The scouts agree that he is a fit for the modern game, given that he has the ability to catch passes as well as run at a high level.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 20.9
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Robinson has been one of the most highly sought-after RB prospects in recent memory. As a true freshman, he ran for over 700 yards on less than 90 attempts. 2021 was his true breakout year, accounting for over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and averaging nearly 6.0 yards per carry. Robinson improved in his final season, seeing more efficiency both on the ground and as a receiver despite more volume.
Robinson joins an impressive list in terms of collegiate experience, usage, and efficiency. Since 2000, this is the list of three-year RBs to surpass 400 carries and 40 catches while averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry and 10.0 yards per reception respectively:
Reggie Bush
Jamaal Charles
Duke Johnson
Christian McCaffrey
Leonard Fournette
Dalvin Cook
Bijan Robinson
With the exception of Johnson, these are some of the best PPR RBs in fantasy football over the last two decades. It is exceptional company for Robinson to find himself in.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein believes Robinson can have an immediate impact:
Full-menu back blending a smorgasbord of position-specific traits that allow him to affect games. Robinson is well-built with a compact lower half and pairs a low center of gravity with agile feet. There are elements of both fight and flight in his running style, but defenders can never be quite sure what they are going to get. He’s a capable inside/outside runner with unique footwork to stack moves and reset pathways, but he can plow into tacklers at a moment’s notice using elite contact balance to keep the run rolling. He might need to dial back efforts to search out big runs so frequently and take what is there a little more often to keep from getting bogged down. His pass-catching talent ensures the opportunity for Robinson to see a high number of touches. He has a chance to become one of the more productive runners in the league very quickly.
Daniel Jeremiah was extremely bullish on Robinson:
Robinson is a three-down back with excellent size, vision, and burst. On inside runs, he is aggressive to press the hole before lowering his pads and exploding through contact. He has the lateral quickness to make defenders miss in tight quarters. On outside runs, he has the speed to capture the corner and is very loose and elusive out in space. In the passing game, he is a fluid route runner out of the backfield, boasting excellent hands. He can contort and adjust to poorly thrown balls. He does need to improve his recognition and technique in pass pro, though; he is late to step up and his anchor gets challenged too often. Overall, Robinson has all of the tools to quickly emerge as a top-tier RB in the NFL.
Dane Brugler echos the takes of his peers that Robinson — his sixth overall prospect — has what it takes as both a runner and receiver:
With his unique mix of elusiveness, vision, and power, Bijan Robinson makes defenders miss in different ways. Although he won’t be drafted as high as this ranking (or even in the top half of Round 1, most likely), he is the complete package as both a runner and receiver.
Draft Projection
Robinson currently has an expected draft position of 20.2 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Robinson 15th overall. He went 27th in Jeremiah’s first mock, and 31st in Brugler’s most recent mock — both citing positional value as a reason Robinson may slide on Day 1. It is clear that he is expected to be a first-round pick come draft day.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
We see some similar names in the comp set that was mentioned earlier: Fournette, Cook, Bush, Johnson, and McCaffrey. Perennial RB1 Maurice Jones-Drew also made the list, as did fellow first-rounders Mark Ingram and Knowshon Moreno. Ingram has had a long and productive career, while Moreno was able to offer a handful of useful seasons.
Leshoure was a top-60 pick who tore his Achilles as a rookie and never fully recovered, and Conner has had multiple RB1 seasons as a featured player despite being selected later in the draft.
There are always injury concerns at RB, but Robinson’s reputation precedes him with this similarity list. Being comped to some of the best RBs of the past two decades paints a picture of someone with both a high floor and high ceiling.
