CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 5 – Friday

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

Looking for a DFS Optimizer? ETR has partnered with The SOLVER and FantasyLabs to provide multiple options to our subscribers. Make sure to get the best price and ETR projections synced with the product by signing up directly through our links: The SOLVER, FantasyLabs.

Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Brennan Armstrong (NCST – DK $8,700, FD $10,700) – We keep finding ourselves considering Armstrong on these short mid-week slates and it never feels great. However, he is the locked-in 100% starter (unlike QBs for Utah and Louisiana Tech) and has been running the ball 13+ times a game (unlike QBs from Louisville, Oregon State, UTEP, and BYU), which immediately puts him in primary consideration on this slate. His price tag is not the most friendly, especially on FanDuel, so he is not a cash lock (no quarterback is on this slate) but is clearly the best quarterback on the slate in a vacuum. If the Utah and/or Louisiana Tech situations get cleared up before lock, it may be prudent to take a look there in cash on both sites. GPP recommendation: Stack with 0 to 2 pass catchers.

Emory Jones (CIN – DK $6,900, FD $9,400) – On the road at BYU is still a relatively tough spot, but the Cougars have not been as stellar defensively as we have been accustomed to in recent history. Jones provides a dual-threat skill set (averaging nearly 14 carries per game this season), which really helps differentiate him on a slate where all eight team totals are between 22 and 30 points. While the run game has lacked pop, the Bearcats’ passing game has featured a high rate of explosive plays — although you will have to take that with a fair share of mistakes by Jones. GPP recommendation: Stack with 0 to 2 pass catchers.

Jack Turner (LTU – DK $5,400, FD $8,600) – It seems as though Hank Bachmeier (who is injured and missed last week) is not ready for contact, but he possibly could be available for this game (in a backup or emergency situation most likely). Our assumption is that Jack Turner gets the start again, leading a throw-heavy offense on a slate where saving salary at quarterback really makes lineup building easier. Keep an eye on news for La Tech, as dropping down to Turner is certainly viable if you can stomach the risk of uncertainty. GPP recommendation: Stack with 1 to 2 pass catchers.

RUNNING BACK