CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 9 – Saturday Main

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Caleb Williams (USC – DK $10,500, FD $12,000) – Despite all of the turmoil at USC right now and coming off of two subpar games, we simply cannot ignore Caleb Williams on a slate that has plenty of value. We can explain away those poor performances (relative to his own high standards) as poor matchups given that at Notre Dame (in bad weather) and versus Utah are two of the worst spots on the schedule. He was pretty solid versus Utah; he just did not have the touchdown variance go his way. This is a get-right spot for the reigning Heisman winner, as Cal has a poor defense (72nd in defensive efficiency and 99th in passing yards allowed per game) and they play extremely up-tempo (which is why we are seeing a 67.5 total). USC continues to have a really deep wide receiver rotation, so stacking with Caleb is far from necessary. His tag on DK prevents him from being a lock in cash games, however, he is certainly in the conversation if you are paying up at the position. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.

Dillon Gabriel (OU – DK $9,400, FD $11,800) – Gabriel left some production on the table last week, but he continues to be one of the higher-upside QB options this season. Kansas plays extremely slow (112th in plays per minute), which could kill some clock and limit plays, but we expect a lot of big plays out of the Sooners in this game versus a Kansas team that has been allowing plenty of explosives. There were some weather concerns here (cold, wet, and windy), but the forecast seems to have improved and the total has held steady at 66. Oklahoma’s offense is elite and they should score 40+ points with a lot of that production flowing through Gabriel. We prefer Caleb Williams straight up, but the $1,100 salary savings is meaningful on this slate. GPP Recommendation: 1 to 2 pass catchers in stack.