DFS Top Plays: Week 12

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated once on Sunday morning, if necessary.

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You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

For more tournament content, check out our projections and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone. 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for. 

QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady ($7600 DK, $8200 FD) — No Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, or Dak Prescott on this slate. Brady is our bet to lead the QBs in scoring. Price on FD much more appealing. 

Justin Herbert ($6600 DK, $7800 FD) — The Chargers play fast, are pass-centric, and have a healthy cast of weaponry for Herbert. Broncos defense is no pushover, but Herbert’s ceiling is very high each week — especially when compared to the other QBs on the slate. 

Cam Newton ($5600 DK) — FanDuel aggressively moved Cam’s price up to $8000. But DraftKings left him at $5600 despite the obvious red-zone rushing role that is incredibly fantasy-friendly. He also has DJ Moore, CMC, and Robby Anderson all healthy.

RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey ($9000 DK, $9700 FD) — CMC fits better on DraftKings where it’s full-PPR and we get 100-yard bonuses. Also McCaffrey’s touchdown projection is worse with Cam Newton under center. Still, CMC is in a class of his own for fantasy thanks to the unique rush and receiving share. 

James Robinson ($6200 DK, $7600 FD) — Health appears to be improved as J-Rob went LP, LP, FP in practice this week. The spot (home vs. Falcons) couldn’t get much better.  

Miles Sanders ($5100 DK, $7000 FD) — The Eagles’ maniacal rushing share bodes well for Sanders here, particularly against a injury-ravaged and inept Giants team. Note that Sanders is now another week removed from his injury and Jordan Howard (knee) is out.  

WIDE RECEIVER
Keenan Allen ($7400 DK, $7000 FD) — We are back to 2020 levels on Keenan as he’s surged far ahead of Mike Williams. At least 11 targets in four straight games, which is the kind of volume Allen needs because his aDOT is so short. 

Chris Godwin ($7000 DK, $7600 FD) — Antonio Brown is out again and Mike Evans (back) comes in a bit balky. Certainly no bargain on either site, but he is meaningfully cheaper than Keenan on DraftKings.  

Diontae Johnson ($6600 DK, $7100 FD) — Ben Roethlisberger’s go-to guy is even more locked in with Juju Smith-Schuster and Eric Ebron out. Johnson has 12+ targets in six of his last eight games.  

Brandin Cooks ($5800 DK, $6500 FD) — A clean spot for Cooks to capitalize on the elite underlying usage he’s seen this season. The Jets are dead last in our DvP metrics against WRs. 

TIGHT END
George Kittle ($6400 DK, $6700 FD) — Better play on FanDuel, where the cap is looser and TDs mean more. Regardless, Kittle has been dominant since returning from injury while sporting an elite 23.4% target share.

Rob Gronkowski ($4400 DK) — At $6500 on FanDuel, Gronk is too close to Kittle and Kyle Pitts. But on DraftKings, he’s a value. Note that Gronk practiced full on Wednesday and Thursday this week, suggesting he’s near 100%. 

DEFENSE
Bengals ($2700 DK, $3300 FD) — A chance to get after the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger cheaply.  Steelers have Thorn’s No. 29 offensive line.

Falcons ($2500 DK, $3800 FD) — Falcons don’t have a very good pass rush, but the Jags have Thorn’s No. 24 offensive line and the scheming is a mess. 

Texans ($2300 DK) — No-brainer punt on DraftKings against mistake-prone Zach Wilson. On FanDuel, the Texans are a whopping $4900 and therefore out of play for cash.