ETR’s Rookie Dynasty Rankings

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Below are the ETR Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings. For our full Dynasty rankings, CLICK HERE.

Rookie Evaluation Philosophy

• Leading up to the NFL Draft, it is important to put together a profile for each prospect that can be applied to the draft position once it is known.
• My profiles are done primarily through statistics, but there is also value in understanding where players win through watching them, and reading the analysis of trusted scouts.
• We look holistically at prospects, attempting to develop a sound range of outcomes to understand prospects through probabilities.
• Age and experience both matter for all prospects, but will vary in degree by position.

Positional Philosophy

QB

• This is the position we think we are the worst at evaluating.
• We are leaning the most on draft position here.
• Statistically, we like to see high adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A), but trying to avoid small sample size biases.
• Rushing ability matters a ton given both the overall direction of the position, and the built-in floor.

RB

• Landing spot matters the most here. We want immediate volume if we can get it.
• Prefer to see a strong receiving resume, but a lack of collegiate receptions does not prevent a prospect from doing it at the next level.
• Adjusted yards per team play ([rushing yards + 2*receiving yards]/plays) the most valued statistic.
• 40 time and speed score matter, but perhaps only inasmuch as they relate to draft position.

WR

• Position we can develop the most reliable statistical profile for.
• Breakout age and year (based on 30% dominator rating threshold) most important statistic.
• Total years out of high school matters a ton: three-year players wildly more successful than every other group.
• Receiving yards per team pass attempt preferred production statistic.

TE

• Not a ton of data on TEs due to small sample size of prospects.
• Care a lot about athleticism — we want TEs who can create mis-matches.
• Any TE who can come close to the WR breakout thresholds needs to be taken notice of.
• Need to pay attention to scouting profiles to see if players are more blocker than receiver.