Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bears at Commanders

Thursday Night Football

Chicago @ Washington

Team Totals: Commanders 25.5, Bears 18.5

Fresh off easily his year-best game in Week 4’s loss to Denver, Justin Fields visits D.C. with a healthy weapons contingent and LG Teven Jenkins (calf) making his season debut. Fields’ dynamic dual-threat capability keeps him QB1 playable, although Washington’s D/ST remains a recommended start. DC Jack Del Rio’s defense ranks sixth in the league in sacks (13), while Chicago has surrendered the NFL’s second-most quarterback takedowns (17). The Commanders have coughed up the league’s ninth-most fantasy QB points, including the NFL’s third-most rushing yards (131) to Fields’ position. … Khalil Herbert handily retook Chicago’s lead-back job in last Sunday’s defeat, out-snapping Roschon Johnson 56 to 16 and out-touching the rookie 22 to six. Johnson is just an end-of-bench roster stash at this point. Herbert is low-end RB2/flex viable at Washington having handled Weeks 1-3 touch counts of 12, eight, and nine prior to last week.

Fields’ Weeks 1-4 target distribution: D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet 24; Herbert 15; Chase Claypool 14; Johnson and Darnell Mooney 12; Tyler Scott 5; Robert Tonyan 4. … Moore has been an early-season roller coaster ride, but he leads the Bears in catches (19), yards (301), touchdowns (2), and first-down conversions (15) on throws from Fields. I’m valuing Moore as an upside WR2 play against a Washington defense permitting the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy wide receiver points. Moore ranks No. 15 in the league in Air Yards share (37%). … Kmet’s receiving line over his last 17 games is 63/677/9 (10.8 YPR). Kmet’s box-score appeal remains strongly tied to end-zone trips. The Commanders have not allowed a TD to a tight end this season. … Week 4 scratch Claypool was told by the Bears to not even bother attending the game. … Longball threat Mooney hasn’t cleared 60 yards in an individual game in nearly a full calendar year. … Equanimeous St. Brown stood in as Chicago’s Week 4 No. 3 receiver with Claypool on the shelf.

Dead last in the league in sacks (2) and injured in the back, the Bears offer a comfortable environment for Sam Howell, who’s been sacked a league-high 24 times. Despite his astronomical takedown rate, Howell has 17+ fantasy points in three of four starts, while Chicago is yielding over 25 FF points per game to signal-callers. This week, the Bears look likely to miss top CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and top safety Eddie Jackson (foot). Nickel CB Kyler Gordon (hand) is on I.R. … Brian Robinson kept Washington’s Week 4 lead-back job, out-snapping Antonio Gibson 43 to 30 while out-touching Gibson 16 to seven against the Eagles. Gibson is playable only on one-game DFS slates. On Weeks 1-4 touch counts of 20, 20, 10, and 16, Robinson is a rock-solid RB2/flex starter as a big home favorite versus the Bears, who’ve been skewered by enemy backs for eight all-purpose touchdowns and an average of 155 total yards through four games.

Howell’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 26; Jahan Dotson 25; Curtis Samuel 20; Logan Thomas 14; Cole Turner 11; Gibson 10; John Bates 8; Robinson and Dyami Brown 7. … McLaurin leads the Commanders in receptions (21), yards (212), and first-down conversions (11) on Howell’s throws. He’s an upside WR2 play against Chicago’s depleted backend. … Dotson (ankle) and Samuel (quad) are dicey fantasy bets battling injuries on a short week. We may see a healthy dose of Brown, Byron Pringle, and Washington’s triumvirate of tight ends. … Thomas is a strong single-game DFS tournament starter after logging a Week 4 snap rate of 79% against Philly. Thomas is clearly Washington’s top tight end.

Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Bears 21