Last updated: November 15th at 8:15am ET
Team Totals: Rams 23, Bears 17
Mitchell Trubisky visits L.A. coming off his season-best fantasy finish (QB10) to face a Rams defense that has held 7-of-9 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB15 or worse while allowing the NFL’s ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.1) and touchdown passes (12) and 20 points or fewer in four straight games. With Sean McVay’s offense sputtering, DC Wade Phillips’ unit has quietly become the strength of the Rams’ team. With just the one top-12 QB1 result under his belt – and Jalen Ramsey set to chase top weapon Allen Robinson all over the field – Trubisky is a low-end two-quarterback-league option on Sunday night. … The Bears’ backfield became a stayaway situation when David Montgomery rolled his ankle in Wednesday’s practice and couldn’t go on Thursday. The Rams are stamping out ground attacks this year – holding enemy backs to 215/771/6 (3.59 YPC) rushing and just 36.0 receiving yards per game – while north-south plodder Ryan Nall is an underwhelming alternative in the Bears’ backfield, and Tarik Cohen has accomplished virtually nothing all year. On one-game DFS slates, of course, our approach should be much different. In that format, Nall would become an excellent sleeper if Montgomery does indeed miss, and Cohen’s usage projection could get a sizable bump despite his to-date ineffectiveness.
Trubisky’s 2019 target distribution: Robinson 64; Cohen 43; Taylor Gabriel 31; Anthony Miller 21; Montgomery 19; Trey Burton 17; Adam Shaheen and Cordarrelle Patterson 11; Ben Braunecker and Javon Wims 4. … Whereas Jalen Ramsey never chased No. 1 wideouts into the slot in Jacksonville, Ramsey gained slot experience at Florida State and played a career-high 27 slot snaps in last week’s matchup with JuJu Smith-Schuster. That’s the bad news. The good news for Robinson is Ramsey hasn’t been his usual self this year, permitting 29 completions on 41 targets (71%) for 394 yards (9.6 YPA) and two touchdowns. I’m viewing Robinson as a boom-bust WR3 play in season-long leagues. It helps that Robinson checked in as Week 11’s No. 5 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Week 10 routes run among Bears pass catchers: Robinson and Gabriel 29; Miller 23; Patterson and Burton 10; Braunecker 3; Wims 2. … My favorite one-game DFS-slate sleeper if Montgomery misses is Patterson, who’s capable of handling traditional running back work, offers big-play ability on special teams, and has a defined gadget-guy role as a pass catcher. … Robinson is the Bears’ only true season-long-league consideration here, but Gabriel and to a lesser extent Miller make sense as one-game DFS punts. … Keep an eye on Burton (calf) and Shaheen’s (foot) injury status leading into Sunday night’s game. A high-end athlete who’s been given minimal NFL opportunities as a former undrafted free agent, Braunecker is arguably the Bears’ best tight end talent and is another sleeper on Sunday night’s one-game slate. Tight ends opposing the Rams have caught 37-of-48 targets for 414 yards (8.63 YPA) over the last six weeks.
As Jared Goff is among the NFL’s most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks, Los Angeles’ losses of C Brian Allen (MCL) and RT Rob Havenstein (knee) enhance Goff’s risk factor versus the Bears, who’ve allowed one top-12 fantasy score in nine quarterback starts, notably containing Aaron Rodgers (QB23), Kirk Cousins (QB25), Philip Rivers (QB24), and Carson Wentz (QB18). Just 19th among fantasy passers in points per game, Goff is a two-quarterback-league Week 11 start but not a whole lot more. … Chicago has been clocked for 115/499/7 (4.34 YPC) rushing by enemy backs over its last five games and the NFL’s fifth-most catches (63) on the year. The Bears’ run defense is further softened by ILB Danny Trevathan’s dislocated elbow. Todd Gurley warrants RB2 treatment on Sunday night with Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown mixing in for change-of-pace touches, but touchdowns will determine their final stock.
Goff’s 2019 target distribution: Cooper Kupp 91; Robert Woods 71; Gerald Everett 56; Gurley 28; Tyler Higbee 27; Josh Reynolds 23; Henderson 6; Brown 3. … Held catch-less in Week 10 by a Steelers game plan designed to take him away, Kupp is a good bet to rebound against burnable Bears slot CB Buster Skrine. In his career, Kupp averages nearly 32 more yards per game at home than on the road. … Woods’ sans-Brandin Cooks opportunity bump contributed to last week’s 7/95/0 receiving line on 11 targets, and Cooks is out again this Sunday, narrowing Los Angeles’ passing distribution. Chicago’s overrated secondary should be proactively attacked by fantasy leaguers with Kupp as a WR1 and Woods as a high-ceiling WR2. … Reynolds jumped right back into Cooks’ role in last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers, seeing five targets on 95% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Even as Reynolds is a WR4 in season-long leagues, his one-game DFS appeal is immense as a near-full-time player facing a Bears secondary that’s shown itself time and again to be oversold. … McVay stayed committed to three-receiver 11 personnel in last Sunday’s without-Cooks game, but he also promoted Everett to the main tight end in such packages. Everett’s usage was elite with 12 targets on a 69% snap rate and 35 routes, while Chicago has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. Everett should be teed up with TE1 confidence.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Bears 16