Las Vegas @ Miami
Team Totals: Dolphins 29.5, Raiders 17
On an emotional high after consecutive wins under interim HC Antonio Pierce, the Raiders encounter a letdown spot traveling cross country to face a rested Dolphins team fresh off its bye in a 1:00 p.m. ET game. Miami’s D/ST is an exciting bet against Aidan O’Connell, especially if Raiders LT Kolton Miller (shoulder) sits again. Through four appearances (three starts), O’Connell has committed five turnovers and taken 10 sacks. … Pierce’s commitment to Josh Jacobs has been extreme over the last two weeks; Jacobs is topping 80% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps and averaging 27.5 touches per game on Pierce’s watch. The Dolphins’ defense has been middling in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs, but Jacobs’ colossal role keeps his value in first-tier RB1 territory as one of the league’s highest-volume bellcows.
O’Connell’s 2023 target distribution: Davante Adams 33; Jacobs and Jakobi Meyers 13; Hunter Renfrow 11; Michael Mayer 7; Tre Tucker 6. … O’Connell’s promotion was initially billed as a potential negative for Adams, yet Adams is dominating target share (33%) on O’Connell’s throws. The Dolphins have allowed the NFL’s ninth-most catches to wide receivers (130).
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