The Broncos made their first big splash of the 2026 offseason on Tuesday morning when they sent a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and a fourth-round pick to Miami in exchange for Jaylen Waddle and a fourth-rounder. The Dolphins are in all-out rebuild mode, while Denver adds a big-time WR to the fold. Let’s dig into this trade from a fantasy standpoint.
JAYLEN WADDLE
- Waddle posted some monster target shares down the stretch, closing out the 2025 season with at least a 27.3% target share in five of his final six healthy games. He impressively remained efficient on a per-target basis with 9.1 yards per target, but the Dolphins were such a disaster offensively last year that he still only managed 910 yards in 16 games. Waddle seemed headed for a similar fate in 2026 before this trade, and getting out of a nightmarish offensive environment is a win for him. Malik Willis has a career 13.4% scramble rate and 12.0% sack rate. More than one-fourth of his career dropbacks, in other words, have not resulted in a pass attempt. Even if the Dolphins are consistently in negative game script, Willis pushes pass volume down so much that it was difficult to get too excited about Waddle in 2026. He’ll have more target competition in Denver, but the pass rate will at least resemble a legit NFL offense.
- Courtland Sutton‘s target share dropped from 24.6% in 2024 to 19.9% last season. He still topped the 1,000-yard mark and had a productive season in a vacuum, but the target dominance wasn’t there in 2025 despite a rotating cast of WR2 candidates. Troy Franklin earned 0.23 targets per route run but averaged 6.8 yards per target, his second straight inefficient season. Pat Bryant eventually usurped Franklin for the WR2 role but struggled to stay healthy near the end of the year, while Marvin Mims Jr. remained in the same rotational WR4 role he’s been in for a while now. Sutton is now 30 years old — 31 in October — and may be best suited for a WR2 role at this stage. Waddle won’t dominate targets to the same extent he did in Miami last year (0.26 TPRR), but his efficiency should be excellent under Sean Payton‘s tutelage, and the total pass-volume improvement will likely be gargantuan. Waddle is a winner here.
OTHER BRONCOS PLAYERS
- This significantly increases the target competition for all Broncos. As mentioned above, Sutton’s target-earning ability dropped off a cliff last year, but he can certainly still be productive as Denver’s WR2. Mims’ role likely remains unchanged as a WR4/gadget guy. Bryant emerged over Franklin last year, out-snapping Franklin in the final four regular-season games he played in, and seems to be trusted by Payton as a run blocker. We don’t get fantasy points for run blocking, and Bryant’s path to targets is blocked with Waddle and Sutton in front of him, but he’ll see the field at least, barring another WR addition. Franklin is in the danger zone after back-to-back ineffective seasons and getting phased out for Bryant down the stretch. He played more in negative game script with Denver seemingly valuing his pass-catching ability (compared to an all-around WR like Bryant), making him the odd man out with Waddle in town.
- Evan Engram turns 32 years old before the start of the 2026 season and averaged only 6.1 yards per target in 2025, his third straight season at 6.7 or lower. He was another game script-dependent option who didn’t catch on in Payton’s “Joker” role, and his path to volume is sketchy with another high-level pass catcher now on the roster. Engram is technically a cap casualty candidate, but he’ll probably be on the roster come Week 1. Just don’t expect much.
DOLPHINS PLAYERS
- Is De’Von Achane next? The Dolphins have a new regime this year with Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley leading the way, and they’ve parted ways with plenty of big-name players this offseason, with Waddle as the latest example. Achane is clearly one of the best running backs in football, and he’s still only 24 years old, but Miami is clearly starting fresh. If Achane remains with the Dolphins, his target share could be massive; Malik Washington currently sits atop the WR depth chart. With that being said, more than a quarter of Willis’ career dropbacks haven’t resulted in a pass attempt, and the Titans and Packers both passed at well below a 40% clip with him as their starter. Even if the Dolphins are awful, as expected, and Achane has a big target share, his raw target volume will be suppressed by Willis. Getting traded might be the best thing for Achane at this point.
- The Dolphins now have two first-round picks — No. 11 and No. 30 — and five more Day 2 picks. They will likely add significant pieces at WR, considering Washington, Tutu Atwell, and Jalen Tolbert are their top three WRs right now. A rookie will immediately be the WR1 here, but again, it’s still not a great landing spot because of how much Willis suppresses pass volume.
- ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques wrote that Greg Dulcich could be a key factor in Miami’s 2026 passing game. That might be a necessity, but bringing him back on a one-year, $3.3 million deal doesn’t exactly scream that they value him as a long-term contributor. The Dolphins could draft a TE to take Dulcich’s job, and the minimal investment they made in him hardly guarantees him a role, but they’re so devoid of pass-catching talent right now that he’s worth keeping an eye on.
- Willis is such a good runner that he warrants legitimate fantasy consideration, but who is he going to throw to? Miami will add multiple rookie pass catchers in next month’s draft, but the Dolphins don’t seem to be prioritizing developing Willis so far.
