Before the draft I covered sleepers for Day 2 of the NFL draft, and deep sleepers for Day 3. I’m now applying that same approach to the WRs who were drafted in the 1st Round. I’ll be highlighting their production profiles and reviewing their landing spots to give you some additional context.
12. Henry Ruggs, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
LANDING SPOT:
Ruggs lands with short throw specialists Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota in an offense that doesn’t appear to fit his skill set. But Ruggs also lands in an offense with immediate targets on offer, and where even more targets could open up in 2021 with the very likely departure of Tyrell Williams.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Henry Ruggs will play the entire 2020 season at 21. WRs who begin their rookie seasons at age 21 have out produced WRs who enter the league at 22+ and have been the best values in dynasty.
Declared Early. WRs who forgo college eligibility to enter the NFL draft have strongly out-performed WRs who stayed for their Senior season, even after accounting for age.
Played with Other Talented WRs. Fans of Ruggs have advanced the case that his lack of college production was primarily the result of playing with extremely talented WR teammates. And they have a point. Not only did Ruggs compete for targets with fellow top 15 pick Jerry Jeudy, Alabama’s leading WR was actually Devonta Smith, who will likely be a 1st round pick in 2021. Nathan Forster’s 2020 version of his WR model for Football Outsiders demonstrates that this talented teammate effect is actually quantifiable and predictive–this isn’t just excuse making for Ruggs’ lack of college production.
Yards per Target. Ruggs’ 13.5 YPT was second to only CeeDee Lamb in the 2020 class. So although he wasn’t as involved in the Alabama offense as we’d like to see, Ruggs was in fact providing elite value to his offense when targeted. This lends further credence to the argument that the Alabama WR room was simply too crowded for Ruggs to put up elite market share.
Athleticism. You know by now that Ruggs runs a 4.27 40. But his 42 inch vertical and 131 inch broad jump have gone a bit under the radar by comparison. Those jumps rank second and fourth in the 2020 class respectively. Ruggs is an explosive athlete.
Hands. Per Dane Brugler, Ruggs had just 1 drop in 2019. And Lance Zierlien concurs that Ruggs’ hands are a strength of his game. In addition, Ruggs is tied with Donovan Peoples-Jones for the third largest hands in the class, which may be more important than you think. I’m not buying comps to speedsters with drop issues like Darrius Heyward Bey and Troy Williamson.
Size. Adam Levitan’s threshold analysis identifies Ruggs’ weight as a slight red flag, with Ruggs coming in two pounds below the 190 pound threshold. But I’m actually counting Ruggs’ size as a strength just in case you’ve come to perceive him as a small speed WR. At 5’11” and with an NFL playing weight likely be in the 190s (he’s only 21 after all), his size provides upside for a more well rounded NFL skill set than he demonstrated in college.
RED FLAGS:
Career Market Share of Yards. Ruggs accounted for just 16% of Alabama’s receiving yards over his three year career. This is a major red flag. Since 2009, only five WRs with less than 20% career MSY have produced a fantasy breakout in their first three NFL seasons: D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill, Kelvin Benjamin, and Josh Gordon.
On the other hand, these names provide a bit of a silver lining. If Ruggs succeeds in the NFL, the ability to win deep will almost certainly be a big part of his game. Therefore, it’s encouraging that all five of the the recent breakouts by unproductive college WRs were from players who succeeded as NFL deep threats. Metcalf, McLaurin and Benjamin all achieved their breakouts as classic deep threats–with aDOTs of 13+. Hill first broke out first as a hybrid RB/WR, but has operated as a more traditional deep threat since 2018. Gordon developed into a classic alpha WR in his second season (with a well rounded mix of targets) but first gained his rookie opportunities as a traditional deep threat. It’s not ideal that Ruggs was unproductive in college, but his NFL skill set projects similarly to recent positive outliers.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Ruggs had just 18% of Alabama’s receiving yards in 2019. Even considering that he finished the season while still 20 years old, this is a thoroughly unimpressive age-adjusted performance. It’s concerning that he couldn’t even crack 20% in his final season.
No College Breakout. Not to beat a dead horse… but Ruggs never achieved a 30% Dominator Rating in college, which is bearish for his NFL prospects.
OUTLOOK:
As a raw deep threat, Ruggs is often thought of as better for real life football than fantasy football, and there’s probably some truth to that. However, I also think that framing undersells Ruggs’ ceiling. Ruggs is extremely young and has already impressed NFL scouts to the point that he was selected as the WR1 in a class that saw six first round WRs. It’s hard to see how the Raiders could justify taking him as the top WR if they don’t anticipate him developing into a true go-to option in their offense. And at 5’11” 188, and just 21 years old, it’s plausible that he fills out and develops into a well rounded receiving threat.
Unfortunately though, we don’t have a safety net on the Raiders evaluation of Ruggs. If their scouts were wrong, Ruggs’ lack of production indicates that they could be very wrong. In a downside scenario, fantasy owners could find themselves rostering a field stretching decoy à la Phillip Dorsett.
The tie breaker for me is this: Ruggs profiles as a player who can score fantasy points at a high per target rate and now has upside for a lot of targets. That combination makes Ruggs a great bet to increase in trade value during his rookie season. As we saw with Terry McLaurin in 2019, owners can be quick to forget their pre-draft evaluations when production starts rolling in. And Ruggs isn’t just a value play, he has a strong projection despite his incomplete resume.
In rookie drafts, Ruggs is a great selection in the back half of the 1st round. Exactly where he falls in that group will depend mostly on where the RBs land tonight.
15. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
LANDING SPOT:
The Broncos will be looking for Jerry Jeudy to form an elite WR tandem with the explosive Courtland Sutton. And Jeduy’s versatility and precision should compliment Sutton’s skill set nicely. But for fantasy purposes, Jeudy’s landing spot isn’t ideal. It’s hard to imagine Drew Lock supporting multiple fantasy relevant WRs without a major leap in 2020, and a Noah Fant breakout would further complicate the situation. But then again, Jeudy should see the field immediately and has a realistic path to an early career NFL breakout.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Happy birthday, Jerry. Jeudy turns 21 today (4/24). He’s the second youngest WR in the 2020 draft (behind K.J. Hamler).
Declared Early.
Played with Other Talented WRs. Because Jeudy was productive at Alabama, people aren’t as vocal about the fact that he also played with extremely talented WR teammates. But this matters for Jeudy as much as it does for Ruggs. And the fact that his Alabama teammate was the only WR drafted ahead of him, tells us that Jeudy’s college production is more special than it appears at first glance.
Career Market Share of Yards. Jeudy’s career MSY of 25% is very impressive considering that he finished his career as a 20 year old Junior with a high level of competition for targets.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Jeudy recorded 26% of Alabama’s receiving yards at 20.7. This ties for the seventh best age-adjusted MSY in the class. And again, this level of production is all the more impressive in the context of his target competition.
Yards per Route Run. Jeudy’s 2019 YPRR of 3.3 trails only Lamb among 1st Round WRs and is the fourth best in the class among WRs expected to be drafted. For Jeudy to be this efficient on his routes while playing with Ruggs and Smith indicates that he was getting open very frequently and doing it quickly. We of course know from scouts that Jeudy’s route running skills are elite for a college prospect, and this strongly reinforces those evaluations.
Athletic Thresholds. Jeudy is not an especially explosive athlete, but he meets all five of Adam Levitan’s minimum thresholds for his athletic profile.
RED FLAGS:
No College Breakout. Jeudy never achieved a Dominator Rating (average of his market share of receiving yards and receiving TDs) of 30% or above, which has historically been a very bearish indicator for WR prospects. While 2019 produced three NFL breakouts from WRs who never broke out in college (D.K. Metclalf, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark), we have to go back to 2016 to find additional examples (Tyreek Hill and Tyrell Williams). That said, Jeudy’s age-adjusted production was otherwise strong, and the talent level of his teammates likely played a role here.
Yards per Target. Jeudy’s 2019 YPT of 10.8 isn’t bad. But it ranks well below fellow top 20 picks, Lamb and Ruggs. I note this because I’ve credited Jeudy in multiple ways for the fact that he played alongside high level WR talent. But we would actually expect his YPT to be inflated by Ruggs and Smith stealing defensive attention. His mediocre performance here raises the concern that Jeudy will operate as a possession WR at the next level.
OUTLOOK:
Jeudy is an excellent WR prospect who was drafted 15th overall. The only WR drafted ahead of him was his own teammate whom he out produced decisively and out-performed in yards per route run. His landing spot isn’t perfect, but it’s not a reason to knock him down your board either. His red flags indicate that he could max out in the NFL as a possession / slot WR, but even in that role he could be a strong fantasy contributor. And his positive indicators suggests he has the ceiling to to combine high volume with high efficiency in the mold of league winning PPR WRs like Antonio Brown Odell Beckham. A 2nd year leap from Drew Lock could unlock that ceiling quickly. I consider Jeudy to be the WR1 in 2020 rookie drafts.
[Post Draft Update – 4/26] The addition of K.J. Hamler in Round 2 muddies the waters a bit for Jeudy. But he’s still clearly in the top rookie WR tier.17. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
LANDING SPOT:
Lamb saw his redraft value torched by a slide in the draft and a surprise selection by the Cowboys. And it’s by no means an ideal landing spot for dynasty either. But it might not be as bad as you think. Amari Cooper‘s new contract is really a 2-year deal with team options in 2022-2024. And Michael Gallup hits Free Agency in 2022, the same year Cooper’s contract makes him a cut candidate. Lamb’s path to a rookie breakout is narrow, but his path to becoming the long term top target for emerging star Dak Prescott is more clear than you might think.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Lamb is the third youngest WR in the 2020 class, and didn’t turn 21 until a few weeks ago.
Declared Early.
Athletic Thresholds. Lamb technically falls short of meeting all five of Adam’s minimum thresholds, since he jumped at 34.5″ instead of 35″. Adam isn’t too worried about this however, and neither am I. He comfortably bests the other four thresholds.
Career Market Share of Yards. Lamb’s career MSY of 25% is strong for a 21 year old Junior. It also may understate his importance to Oklahoma’s offense considering that he played with 2019 1st Round pick Marquise Brown for the first two years of his career.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Lamb absolutely exploded following Brown’s departure, posting a 34% MSY at age 20.7–the best age-adjusted 2019 season in the entire 2020 class.
Yards per Route Run. Lamb also led the class in YPRR, which frankly, is kind of mind blowing. Think about it–adjusted for his age, Lamb’s share of his college passing offense was the best in the class. And while delivering that high end volume, he also led the class in efficiency. This isn’t a guy who was the engine of his offense by default. Lamb saw elite volume for his age because he absolutely destroyed the defenses he faced.
Yards per Target. Lamb also led the 2020 WR class in YPT. Again, this helps explain why he dominated the 2019 Oklahoma passing attack. Lamb was getting open and delivering big plays at an extremely high rate.
Breakout age. Lamb also recorded 14 TDs in 2019 for 44% of Oklahoma’s receiving TDs, making his spectacular 2019 even more ridiculous. His TD output gives him a Dominator Rating of 39%, easily meeting the breakout threshold of 30% at 20.7 years old.
RED FLAGS:
Vertical. I’m not concerned about Lamb’s 34.5 inch vertical, but it is technically a red flag.
Career Market Share of Yards. While we’re picking nits, I do wish that Lamb had been just a bit more productive in 2017 and 2018. As a believer in Marquise Brown’s talent I’m inclined to think that sharing the field with the future 1st Rounder probably hurt Lamb’s opportunity. Additionally, his Freshman year also coincided with Mark Andrews’ final season. So Lamb’s career MSY isn’t something that I’ve overly concerned about. But it does keep him below the level of a truly can’t miss prospect.
OUTLOOK:
Lamb looked like 2020’s top WR prospect pre-draft. But his landing spot is a major impediment to immediate production. In rookie drafts he now drops to my WR3. And in shallower leagues with active trade markets, I would argue that Justin Jefferson is probably a stronger selection, as I think he’s likely to be worth more on the trade market in 2021 and is a great prospect in his own right. In standard dynasty leagues though, Lamb’s potential as a future star keeps me from bumping him down further than WR3 for now. If he does force his way into a meaningful role, Prescott’s strong QB play will allow him to maximize his potentially elite ceiling.
[Post Draft Update – 4/26] Lamb’s target projection appears stronger than my first reaction to his landing spot indicates. The market also seems to be more excited about his pairing with Prescott than concerned about a lack of targets, so there’s unlikely to be much of a discount applied here. Lamb, Jeudy and Reagor form the top tier of rookie WRs this year.21. Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
LANDING SPOT:
Reagor’s landing spot with the Eagles gives him an absolutely unreal ceiling. He should see immediate targets given Philadelphia’s wide open depth chart, and has the chance to learn from one of the best deep threats in recent NFL history in DeSean Jackson. And with Jackson and Alshon Jeffery both 2021 cut candidates, Reagor has a path to emerge as a clear alpha WR by this time next year.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Reagor will play the entire 2020 season at age 21.
Declared Early.
Athleticism. Reagor is, at the very least, a sufficient NFL athlete, running a 4.47 40 at 206 lbs at the combine. He then dropped down to 198 lbs for a pre-draft workout and ran a 40 that was hand timed at 4.22-4.28. His pro day 40, combined with his 42 inch vertical and 138 inch broad jump at the combine (both second best in the class) indicate potential for elite NFL athleticism.
Career Market Share of Yards. Reagor produced 26% of TCU’s receiving yards over his three year career. This is a strong level of production for a player who ended his college career before turning 21.
Breakout age. Other than Justin Jefferson, Reagor is 2020’s only 1st Round WR to break out at age 19. Reagor did so with an unreal 42% Dominator Rating, recording 37% of TCU’s receiving yards and 47% of their receiving TDs in 2018.
19 year old breakouts are rare. The only WRs other than Reagor and Jefferson who broke out at 19 and have a realistic chance to be selected in the first three rounds are Antonio Gandy-Golden and Tyler Johnson.
Explosive Punt Returner. Reagor returned 23 career punts for 409 yards and 1 TD. His PR average of 17.8 is excellent and Dez Bryant is the last 1st round WR who showed this level of punt returning ability. I mentioned that Reagor’s level of athleticism is a bit of an unknown. But Reagor’s punt returning ability has me inclined to believe that his functional football athleticism is more likely to be truly special than his combine 40 indicated.
Kickoff Returner. Reagor wasn’t as explosive on his kickoff returns. But he was still good, producing 315 yards on 13 career returns.
Rushing Production. Reagor’s 300 career rushing yards strongly reinforce the idea that TCU’s coaching staff thought they had something special in Reagor. Not only were they feeding him targets and using him in the return game, they were incorporating him on the ground as well.
RED FLAGS:
Yards per Route Run. From the perspective of yards per route run, Reagor was straight up bad in 2019. His 1.5 YPRR ranks behind numerous WRs expected to go undrafted.
Yards per Target. Reagor’s YPT numbers are even worse. His 6.9 YPT ranks a lowly 47th in the 2019 class and he bests only six draft eligible WRs. It’s possible that none of these six are drafted.
Reagor’s fans have chalked up his inefficiency up to QB issues in 2019. And that almost certainly played a role. But Reagor wasn’t slightly inefficient in 2019. He was in an entirely different ballpark than the other 1st round WRs (and the likely Day 2 WRs for that matter). Reagor’s extremely poor efficiency creates the opposite of the talented teammates effect we saw with the WRs drafted so far. Instead of being held down by strong competition for targets, Reagor’s market share stats may have been inflated by him being the best of bad options at TCU. In other words, there’s the possibility that Reagor, as TCU’s only NFL caliber receiving option, was force fed the ball in a way that reduced the predictive value of his market share stats.
OUTLOOK:
Reagor accounted 42% of his passing offense at age 19, and dominated TCU’s passing offense over his three seasons there. The question is this: is Reagor an emerging star who was held back by a poor surrounding cast–or is he a middling talent who benefited from weak competition for targets?
Intriguingly, we may be asking the same question in 2021. Reagor’s 2020 situation looks somewhat similar to his college days, albeit with much better QB play. His immediate competition for targets is a 33 year old DeSean Jackson, a 30 and injured Alshon Jeffery, a 2nd year WR coming off a historically inefficient rookie season, and an AAF veteran and former UDFA who was put on the field out of pure desperation. Like at TCU, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles not getting Reagor on the field right away and scheming him the ball even if he struggles with efficiency as a rookie.
Reagor’s inefficiency points to a lower than ideal floor. But his 19 year old breakout, young entry into the NFL, all-around play making ability and potentially elite athleticism point to an immediate ceiling that now looks to be the highest in the 2020 class. No WR profiles as more likely for an A.J. Brown style explosion in 2020 and I recommend targeting Reagor aggressively in rookie drafts and trades.
22. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
LANDING SPOT:
Jefferson lands in what I consider his ideal landing spot. He enters a wide open depth chart behind Adam Thielen, who will draw coverage, but not enough targets to prevent a rookie breakout. Jefferson’s ability on intermediate routes also meshes well with Kirk Cousins, whose contract locks in a stable QB situation for the young WR. Jefferson will also have the luxury of playing a large percentage of his rookie snaps in the slot, while learning from Thielen, who is proficient in both the slot and on the outside.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Justin Jefferson will play the entire 2020 season at age 21.
Declared Early.
Athletic Thresholds. Jefferson ended up being more athletic that scouts anticipated, which was a factor in why he ultimately went in the 1st Round. He easily meets all five of Adam’s thresholds.
Career Market Share of Yards. Jefferson’s career MSY of 26.2% bests that of the four WRs drafted ahead of him.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Jefferson produced 29% of LSU’s receiving yards before turning 21. This is a good but not great age-adjusted final season on its face. However, there are a couple things to note. First of all, Jefferson recorded an absurd raw stat line of 111 receptions for 1540 yards and 18 TDs. Considering his level of raw production, it’s hard to be too concerned that Jefferson wasn’t involved enough at LSU. Second of all, Jefferson spent 2019 playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase. Chase just posted an 84-1780-20 season as a 19 year old and is shaping up to one of the best WR prospects we’ve seen in years. In the context of his offense, Jefferson’s 2019 market share is quite impressive.
Breakout age. Jefferson broke out in 2018, in what was actually his best season. As a 19 year old Sophomore he put up 29% of LSU’s receiving yards and 35% of their receiving TDs for a DR of 32%. This should significantly ease concerns that Jefferson was simply a product of Joe Burrow’s 2019 breakout.
Versatility. One knock on Jefferson is that he played the vast majority of his 2019 snaps from the slot. However, this was not the case in 2018, which again, was actually Jefferson’s best season in terms of market share. In 2018, Jefferson played 79% of his snaps out wide. Granted, LSU’s offense was better with Jefferson playing from the slot, and tape evaluators think that will be his NFL fit. But with his best collegiate season coming on the outside, it’s likely his NFL ceiling would include him developing into a versatile threat who can line up both outside and in the slot.
RED FLAGS:
Yards per Route Run. While Jefferson’s 2018 breakout eases concerns that he was a simply product of Joe Burrow’s elite final season, his 2.6 YPRR does the opposite. Jefferson wasn’t necessarily bad in YPRR, but he finished lower than all but Jalen Reagor among 2020’s 1st Round WRs. It’s also considerably worse than Ja’Marr Chase’s elite mark of 3.5. This creates some concern that Jefferson wasn’t just a product of Burrow, but a product of the defensive attention paid to the more efficient and productive Chase.
OUTLOOK:
Jefferson went in the 1st Round of the NFL draft for the same reason you should be comfortable selecting him in the early-mid 1st of your rookie drafts: Justin Jefferson is a professional WR. Jefferson became the engine of LSU’s offense while still just 19 years old and while playing outside WR. He then developed into a highly productive slot receiver while providing a major contribution to a truly great college offense. And physically, he’s a more than capable NFL athlete.
The fact that Jefferson finished out his career as a clear second fiddle to a 19 year old Ja’Marr Chase indicates that Jefferson may lack an elite NFL ceiling. But with his selection by the Vikings he now gets to reprise his successful 2019 role as an NFL rookie. In 2020 he’ll operate as a slot WR and second fiddle to Adam Thielen. This gives him an immediate path to production and makes him a strong bet for increased trade value in 2021. He then has the ceiling to develop into Minnesota’s versatile WR1 as Theilen drops off with age. Jefferson should be drafted no later than WR4 in rookie drafts.
25. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
LANDING SPOT:
Aiyuk is a versatile play-maker who lands with one of the most creative offensive minds in football and should jump into an immediate role. His low volume passing offense may be a concern in the long term, but if he can approximate Emmanuel Sanders‘ production in 2020, he’ll generate plenty of excitement among 2021 drafters.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Athletic Thresholds. Aiyuk comfortably meets all five of of Adam’s athletic thresholds and his 40 inch vertical stands out as excellent.
Yards per Route Run. Aiyuk’s 3.0 YPRR in 2019 bested all but Jeudy and Lamb among 1st Round WRs.
Yards per Target. Aiyuk’s YPT of 12.0 was also strong, besting all but Ruggs and Lamb.
Career Market Share of Yards. Aiyuk produced 31% of Arizona State’s receiving yards over his two year career. This strong production is the type of profile we want to see from players who exhaust their college eligibility.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Aiyuk had 39% of his team’s receiving yards before turning 22. His age-adjusted 2019 production is behind only Lamb and ties with Jeudy for the second best among the 1st Round WRs.
Explosive Kick Returner. Aiyuk was a terrific kick returner at Arizona State, turning 29 career returns into 785 yards. He was also an effective punt returner and added a TD there. This bolsters Aiyuk’s already solid timed athleticism, and reinforces the scouting evaluation that he will be dangerous with the ball in his hands in the NFL.
RED FLAGS:
Declared as a Senior. Historically, players who declare as Seniors have been far less productive than WRs who declare early.
One Year Wonder. Moreover, Aiyuk only had one strong college season, his 2019 senior year. In 2018, Aiyuk accounted for 20% of Arizona State’s receiving yards and 21% of their receiving TDs. It wasn’t until after N’Keal Harry’s departure from the team that Aiyuk put together a breakout season–exploding for 39% MSY and 38% MSTD.
JUCO Transfer. Being a JUCO transfer isn’t necessarily a major red flag. Michael Gallup just had a breakout season and spent 2015-2016 at Butler Community College. But it’s important to make a note of the fact that Aiyuk only played 22 games over two seasons at the FBS level, with 12 of those games coming in his dominant senior campaign. As a result, his strong career MSY is primarily a product of his final season. So while Aiyuk technically fits the career production profile we want to see from Senior prospects, his career stats appear to be skewed by his late entry into a 4-year college.
OUtLOOK:
As a Senior prospect without a multi-year track record, Aiyuk looks to be a tier below the four productive Juniors taken ahead of him. And for the time being, I prefer Ruggs to Aiyuk as well. That said, Aiyuk looks like a strong selection in the back half of rookie drafts, and it will take good landing spots for Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims or Tee Higgins to move ahead of Aiyuk on my board.
