After a few days of protest for the shooting of Jacob Blake and for social justice, the NBA is back on Saturday. The matchups are basically the same as the Wednesday slate, so most of this stuff is the same with the exception of Russell Westbrook now good to go.
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-14), 3:30 pm ET
Team totals: Magic 106.5, Bucks 120.5
Injury News: Aaron Gordon (hamstring) is out, Melvin Frazier (back) is questionable, Vic Law (Achilles) is questionable, and Michael Carter-Williams (foot) remains out.
Magic Expected Starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Gary Clark, Nikola Vucevic
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Magic Rotation Notes: Clifford said rebounding and turnovers were the key, 10 minutes of D.J. Augustin and Fultz in Game 4 (17 minutes combined in first three, seven of 10 in 4Q on Monday to cut into Clark the most).
Bucks Rotation Notes: Budenholzer continues to run a regular-season sub pattern, Budenhoagie/Subenholzer loves subs.
*The Magic starters have kind of held their own in this series and are even at a +1.1 net rating. They have done well against some bench units, but in 37 minutes of starters vs. starters in this series the Bucks are only at +4.7 in net rating. You’d think it would’ve been in +20-30 range with no Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.The Magic have kind of hung in there for the most part, and it’s really just been the big runs from the Bucks that have put games away (late third, early fourth in Game 4). You’d think garbage time all day, but maybe the Magic can keep it close.
*After cutting Vooch down as a roll man from each game 1-3, he was back up to where he was in the first game at 17 points. Clifford talked about game-planning to cut down on mid-range shots, and that helped Vooch get a few makes at the rim after not getting any in Game 3 (nine combined in Game 1-2). Clifford’s alternated game plan seemed to work.
*Clifford’s altered game plan also really helped Markelle Fultz with a handful of more drives, but he really didn’t maximize his output on those 13 drives with only one make (1-of-5 from field). That’s to be expected because the Bucks are easily the best defense on points allowed per drive, but at least his role is encouraging and that overlap with DJA is big to get him to 31 minutes on Monday.
*If you’re playing this game aggressively, you’re obviously using Giannis. In the playoffs, he’s still easily the No. 1 player per minute in FD points, he’s third in usage rate (Donovan Mitchell (!) first, Luka Doncic second), and he leads in total rebounding rate and defensive, too.
Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Vucevic, D.J. Augustin
Matchup Hurts: Gary Clark (if the Magic go heavy two-PG lineups again)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (-3.5), 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Thunder 110.3, Rockets 114.8
Injury News: Russell Westbrook (quad) is back in action, and Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) is still out.
Thunder Expected Starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Rockets Expected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Rotation Notes: Billy Donovan did seem a little more comfortable getting away from Dort when he had to (still closed with him for almost the full fourth), seven minutes of Gallo at the five in Game 4 (four in Game 3, zero in Game 2, 20 in Game 1), Steven Adams down to 2.5 4Q minutes (closed with Gallo at five).
Rockets Rotation Notes: Jeff Green took minutes from RoCo again and Green closed, Gordon continues to get the non-Harden minutes (Rivers out there with him), Ben McLemore squeezed out in second half for a seven-man rotation in Game 4 (only 9.1 Rivers minutes, so almost a six man).
Westbrook Update: Russell Westbrook went through practice for his first 5-on-5 action, and he was fully expected to play on Wednesday before the protest. He should have a shot at minutes in the 30s, and he’ll likely have a lot of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on him.
James Harden isn’t a huge loser with Westbrook returning. In 226 minutes with Westbrook and no traditional center, Harden has a per-36 line of 32.1 points, 7.3 boards, 6.4 dimes, 1.9 steals, 1.1 blocks and 3.5 treys on a 34.1 usage rate and subpar 56.1 TS%. A big reason why his efficiency is down in this sample is because Harden couldn’t hit treys in January, so his normal efficiency would get him into the mid 30s. He’s still in play. However, Eric Gordon is going to see a huge hit after hanging close to 30 in usage rate in this series, but he has just a 12.1 usage rate with Harden, Westbrook and no traditional center (85 minutes). Jeff Green would also be a big loser here and Danuel House loses some appeal.
*The Thunder were great at keeping Harden from paint shots in Game 4 and even kept him off the free-throw line, but the usage was there again thanks to 43 minutes (33.3 usage rate). The pace has also really picked up in the last two games to help Harden and the Rockets get more possessions. He’s still at just 8-of-34 against Dort, but he has destroyed everyone else based on the matchup data: 36 points on 44.3 TS% on Dort, 27 points on 77.9 TS% on Dennis Schroder, 17 points on 79.0 TS% on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. For Harden to be as productive as he’s been with efficiency issues against his main defender, it shows he hasn’t even really hit his ceiling yet. The Rockets are also running more screens at Dort to cause switches, so a better Harden-driven game plan from coach Mike D’Antoni could really set Harden up for an explosion, especially if Westbrook isn’t full Westbrook.
*Three games in a row of SGA looking like SGA. He was up to 26 drives in Game 4, which is up from 17 in Game 3, 19 in Game 2 and nine in Game 1. He wasn’t even all that efficient on his drives at just 4-of-10 in the paint, so there’s still some room for scoring upside. When he’s away from House, SGA has really fared well against Eric Gordon in this series.
*Eric Gordon may not earn his shots with only a 46.9 TS% for the worst among 28 players with a 25-plus usage rate at eight-plus minutes. We saw his usage rate really take a big hit in Game 4 at 23.6 after clearing 30 in each of the first three. Danuel House has been awesome with a respectable 16.6 usage rate and just had an 18.2, so maybe he climbs into the 20s.
Matchup Helps: James Harden, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul, Danuel House
Matchup Hurts: Steven Adams
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-13), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Blazers 104.8, Lakers 117.8
Injury News: Damian Lillard (knee) is out, Nassir Little is still out, C.J. McCollum is available, Rajon Rondo (back) is doubtful, and the Lakers are going with their usual probable tags on LeBron James (groin), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) and Anthony Davis (back).
Blazers Expected Starters: C.J. McCollum, Gary Trent Jr., Carmelo Anthony, Hassan Whiteside, Jusuf Nurkic
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Blazers Rotation Notes: Stotts said he has a lot of trust in his guys after the beatdown, so thinking he goes big to start (not too confident).
Lakers Rotation Notes: Credit where it’s due to Frank Vogel for sticking with his guys for one more game after three bad weeks, Lakers look unbeatable right now.
*The easy part of this is C.J. McCollum is set up for a big role. In 818 minutes without Dame this season, C.J. sits at a per-36 line of 27.1 points, 5.0 boards, 6.1 dimes, 0.5 steals and 3.1 treys. In six games without Dame around the All-Star break, McCollum averaged 33.3 points, 5.3 boards, 8.3 dimes, 0.7 steals and 4.3 treys. His style makes him a tough cover as a primary ball-handler, so even the bad matchup isn’t as scary. He just needs this to be close for most of the game.
*Anfernee Simons was down to seven minutes in the first half, but the Blazers are really going to need some shot creators. He should still find plenty of minutes, but Stotts is really going to lean on C.J. and Trent. The Blazers might look to Jaylen Adams for garbage-time minutes, but they really have no choice but to play Simons in garbage time because of no Nassir Little. You’d think the garbage-time lineup would be Adams, Simons, Jaylen Hoard, Mario Hezonja and Wenyen Gabriel. Mario should be able to get there in playing time, too.
*Alex Caruso continues to earn minutes and he’s coming off a series-best 15.1 usage rate for him. He’s first in net rating among non-Raptors with 20-plus mpg over multiple games. LeBron has also slayed in 52 minutes next to Caruso, putting up a per-36 line of 30/14/13 with a 32.3 usage rate, 66.6 TS% and +27.0 net rating (+8.4 without him at 79 minutes). It might not matter in this series, but Caruso could be valuable against a perimeter-heavy team in the next round.
Matchup Helps: Garbage-time lineups, Anthony Davis, LeBron James
Matchup Hurts: Jusuf Nurkic
