We’re finally set for the full second round with the Lakers and Rockets starting their series today. Interestingly, the recent defense for the Western Conference teams has been outstanding, and the line totals are just two points apart (more below). We saw the Clippers destroy the Nuggets on Thursday night, but tonight we should have some close contests.
Milwaukee Bucks (-5) vs. Miami Heat, 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Bucks 114.3, Heat 109.3
Injury News: Andre Iguodala (ankle) is questionable, Kelly Olynyk (knee) is questionable, Chris Silva (pubic bone) is out, and Gabe Vincent (shoulder) is questionable.
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Bucks Rotation Notes: Budenholzer may have to trim his rotation now that he’s down 2-0 (he did late in the Raptors series last year).
Heat Rotation Notes: Kelly Olynyk saw 4.6 minutes next to Bam in Game 2 (zero in Game 1), 8.5 minutes of Kendrick Nunn with Dragic (six in Game 1).
*When it comes to this game for the Bucks, it really comes down to one simple stat: minutes. Despite how Budenholzer has routinely said he likes to throw a lot of guys in his rotation, he really has no choice here because that plan didn’t work. Bud has said he likes going deep in rotation to help set his guys up down the stretch, but it’s not like the Bucks are taking advantage with a negative net rating in the fourth in this series. Khris Middleton and Giannis should be very, very busy. Eric Bledsoe’s minutes may also have to come up despite his hamstring awareness.
*Miami has done an excellent job of slowing down the Bucks, keeping Giannis at sub-100 pace in each of the two games. He was leading the bubble in pace among players with multiple playoff starts, and he hasn’t had a single game below 100 pace since Mar. 2. He’s only had two transition buckets in each of the two games, and he’s also not getting as many easier buckets at just 30% of his makes coming assisted in Game 2 (lowest of the playoffs). The Bucks continue to bring help defenders, and Giannis didn’t have any makes beyond three feet in Game 2. It’s a bad matchup, but Giannis’ playing time getting a boost makes him a target. Just like in the last two matchups, Brook Lopez should get a lot of great looks due to all the over-helping.
*The Bucks might want to guard No. 7. Goran Dragic has been uncontested on 26-of-33 shots (78.8%). A lot of it is because of Dragic moving so well both on and off the ball to get his best shot possible, but the Bucks have to defend him better.
*We kind of know what the Heat will do, rotation wise. Jae Crowder has made it clear he deserves all the minutes he can handle, and he continues to close with Butler, Dragic, Bam and Tyler Herro. With Andre Iguodala (ankle) possibly out, it could help Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk, and Derrick Jones. We know Bam and Jimmy will do their thing, and Bam’s impact on the offense continues to not show up on the stat sheet yet.
Matchup Helps: Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo, Khris Middleton, Jae Crowder, Brook Lopez
Matchup Hurts: Bucks bench
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-6), 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Rockets 109.8, Lakers 115.8
Defensive Ranks: Rockets 15th, Lakers 3rd
Pace Ranks: Rockets 2nd, Lakers 11th
Injury News: Anthony Davis (finger) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Rajon Rondo (back) is probable.
Rockets Expected Starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Overall Team Notes
*L.A.’s defense was outstanding in the first round, holding the Blazers to a playoff-low 11.2 wide-open attempts from deep. Meanwhile, the Rockets more than doubled that in the first round at 24.3 wide-open attempts, including four of their players in the top 15 per game in the playoffs (P.J. Tucker, Jeff Green, Danuel House, Eric Gordon). Sure, a lot of it is because of the offensive styles for both the Rockets and Blazers, but either way the Rockets probably won’t be able to get 24 wide-open looks per game against a long Lakers defense.
*The Rockets’ defense was awesome in the first round. Once Westbrook was out there for the last three games, their starters put up a 75.3 D rating against OKC in 43 minutes, which is easily the best D rating in the playoffs (min 20 minutes). Major credit to coach Mike D’Antoni for funneling shots to inefficient types or from inefficient players.
*The Lakers’ offense has turned the corner. Sure, the matchup helped, but the Lakers O in the seeding games was a bubble-low 74.4 O rating in 41 minutes (min 20 minutes), and in the playoffs they have the best offense at 134.4 O rating (min 25 minutes).
Rockets Player Notes
*The Lakers’ defense in the first round was ridiculously good against isolation, keeping the Blazers to a playoff-low 0.64 points per possession (PPP) on 66 iso possessions. The Lakers were only in the middle of the pack during the season, but they were a very good PNR defense at 0.83 PPP. The Rockets were running more screens to James Harden, and that should happen again. The Lakers trapped Harden earlier this season when they had Avery Bradley, and they figure to do it again. Harden is so efficient offensively, that he figures to be a big part of the defensive game plan for the Lakers.
*Russell Westbrook smashed on the Lakers in his two games against them, averaging 38.0 points, 8.5 boards, 6.0 dimes and 2.0 steals in 38.9 minutes per game. He did major damage at the rim with 20 makes at the rim in two games. In the three games in the playoffs, Westbrook was still able to get to the rim a whole bunch with 25 shots in those three, but he wasn’t making them and he really struggled with his jumper at a 35.7 eFG% on 21 attempts. In Game 7, he really got into a better groove with huge volume at the rim, taking 60% of his shots at the rim. If the Lakers prioritize Harden in their defensive game plan, Westbrook could be in a decent spot.
*Robert Covington was the hero of Game 7 in the last game, and he was also the hero in his first game with the Rockets in a win over the Lakers. The Rockets like to use RoCo in a variety of ways on defense, but he should see heavy on-ball defensive responsibility on LeBron. On top of just making shots, Covington has still been able to see a decent amount of usage in the last three games with Westbrook at 16.9 in huge playing time at 36.1 minutes. Jeff Green should not have nearly as much opportunity, and Lord RoCo will be busy.
*Eric Gordon has been really good defensively and he had a big responsibility with tons of time on Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder. He has been excellent guarding forwards at a 28.6 FG% allowed on 77 attempts, and he might have to see some time on LeBron. On offense, Gordon still can’t connect on catch-and-shoot treys. He made just 20% of them in the first round, and he was the worst player in the league on those at 28.4% (min 200 attempts). Unlike RoCo, Gordon’s usage rate took a clear hit with Westbrook getting out there, dropping to 21.7% in the last three. He should get chances to make catch-and-shoot attempts, but it’s really tough to buy him making them with how he’s consistently missed those.
*P.J. Tucker gets the unenviable task of guarding Anthony Davis. In 38.9 partial possessions against him, Tucker really limited AD’s offense at just 2-of-5 from the field. We know he’s not going to be doing much offensively, but the playing time is going to be there.
*On Thursday, coach Mike D’Antoni talked about expanding his rotation for this series. “It probably will expand a little bit,” D’Antoni said of his rotation. “You got to feel it out. Just because you don’t play against one team and you don’t feel like that matchup is suitable and not as good as you’d like, maybe you’ll play a lot more against the other team.” “A lot depends on the starters and how much rest anyone needs, or if they’re going really well, you want to stand the starters’ or someone like Danuel House’s minutes. You’re not going to take (minutes) off the superstars. As Russ comes back, he went from 20 minutes the first night, to 25 to 28 now to 30. As his minutes expand, they got to come from somewhere.” We saw Ben McLemore get cut down a bit, but he should see more time.
Lakers Player Notes
*The Lakers sound like they want the Rockets to adjust to them, and Anthony Davis said the Lakers have to “make them adjust to our size.” Vogel also talked about that this week. “We have the ability to play with Anthony at the five or with two big guys with Anthony out there together,” Vogel said. We know we’ll get some AD at the five, and he absolutely crushes in that time. In 66 minutes as a five against the Blazers last series, he put up a per-36 line of 43/11/1 with 2.2 steals and 2.2 blocks. On the season, AD put up a 31/11/3 line with 3.4 blocks and 1.6 steals per 36 on big volume at 854. Despite how Tucker held AD in check this season, he’s just too good to be kept quiet. The Rockets will likely try to get him in foul trouble, so that’ll be key for AD.
*LeBron has also been really, really productive with AD as a five, putting up 35 points, 21 boards and 15 dimes in the 38 minutes in the last series. On the year, he was at a 30/11/10 line per 36 over a 443-minute sample. He had mentioned that he can’t have careless passing in this series, and he was outstanding in the season series at 13.5 dimes per game and a whopping 21.0 potential assists in two outings. LeBron is also coming in red hot as a passer at 18.2 potential assists against the Blazers in just 32.9 minutes per game. Coach Frank Vogel has mentioned countless times he likes extra ball-handlers out there next to LeBron to set him up better in the halfcourt, but either way the stats will be racking up in this series.
*Going back to early August, the Lakers played the Rockets without LeBron, and coach Frank Vogel went smaller with Anthony Davis at the five. Vogel also mentioned how he wanted to get Kyle Kuzma a look in that matchup. “I knew that I wanted to see what a small lineup looked like to start with, with Kuz in there,” Vogel said back on Aug. 6. “And that means it’s sometimes going to be difficult to play both centers. It doesn’t mean we’re necessarily going to go with that if we played these guys in the playoffs, but just something I wanted to look at.” Kuzma’s minutes couldn’t really get there in the Blazers series against all the size on Portland, but that could change here as he’s a candidate to close. He’s probably not going to start because of how well the Lakers’ first unit was playing, but he’s certainly a candidate to close.
*The Lakers perimeter defenders are going to be a lot like the Rockets ones. Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should get some decent looks on the perimeter. We saw the Rockets go out of their way to get Luguentz Dort wide-open shots, but that’s a bit riskier against the Lakers. KCP was at 41.1% on wide-open treys in the season, and Danny Green was at a disappointing 35.8%. Playoff Danny Green SZN will have some good days and bad days.
*Throughout the season, Vogel has talked about how well the Lakers play when Alex Caruso is next to LeBron. In the Blazers series, Caruso and LeBron had a +28.0 net rating together, and on the season it was +18.6 (LeBron without Caruso was +5.2 on year). Caruso also had the best defensive rating on the team against the Blazers, and we know Vogel likes his defensive instincts. He’ll be a candidate to close, especially if KCP or Green struggle.
*Rajon Rondo should be available, and it’s not easy to figure out what his role will be. His status does make it a little risky for Caruso or really anyone besides LeBron and AD. The bigs will also be risky to use because there should be so much AD at the five. Davis doesn’t really like to bang against the big-bodied centers, but that won’t be the case here.
Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Robert Covington
Matchup Hurts: JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard, Jeff Green
