Dynasty Outlook
March 25
In addition to the slow 40, now reports have noted that Spiller could fall into Day 3 of the draft. That would be a huge hit to his fantasy stock, and we have brought him down again in the ranks.
March 22 — Pro Day
Spiller did very little at the Combine, and we can now see why. He ran just a 4.63 in the 40 at his Pro Day, which adjusts to a 4.66. This is a terrible time for Spiller. He did improve his vertical jump by two inches after adjusting. We were already expecting him to run slow, so don’t want to double count it in the ranks, but another slight move down may be necessary, especially if it becomes apparent it will impact draft stock.
March 6
Spiller didn’t do much at the Combine, but that may prove to be somewhat disastrous to his draft stock. While other top RBs were shredding the 40-yard dash, Spiller sat out, and the drills he did perform in — the jumps — he lacked explosion. We pushed his expected draft position to the end of Round 2, and it brought in a lot of negative comps for Spiller. Expect him to move down in our next update.
Feb. 24
Spiller is currently our second favorite running back prospect for rookie drafts, and RB17 in our overall dynasty ranks. While there are a lot of question marks surrounding Spiller — particularly if he is capable of being a workhorse — his age is a tremendous indicator of potential success. 74% of RBs to break out at 18 or 19 went on to be hits (Spiller did it at 19).
With that said, three of the five misses in our database who were 19-year-old breakouts appear on Spiller’s comp list. Ultimately, we need to see him land in a place that would utilize Spiller in a featured role. His high ranking right now is spearheaded by an overall lack of confidence in the position at this juncture. As moves are made throughout free agency and the Draft, Spiller stands to lose some ground if he winds up in a serious timeshare.
Profile Summary
Isaiah Spiller is a difficult evaluation in terms of how he will translate to the NFL level. He has prototypical size for a workhorse runner, and displayed pass-catching chops while at Texas A&M. However, the scouts appear to be split on whether or not he will truly be capable of being a three-down player. Furthermore, he was never that player in college.
Spiller’s player comps are a mixed bag, and his expected draft position — likely on Day 2 — is all over the map. Overall, there appears to be quite a bit of variance in what we can expect from Spiller. It is worth noting that he will not turn 21 until August, making him one of the youngest players at any position in this class.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 20.4
Experience — 3 years
Height — 72.375 inches
Weight — 217 pounds
Hand Size — 8.625 inches
Arm Length — 31.75 inches
Wingspan — 74.125 inches
Forty — 4.66 (Pro Day)
Vertical — 32 inches (Pro Day)
Broad — 114 inches
By the Numbers
Spiller got off to a fast start in his Texas A&M career, exceeding 1,100 yards from scrimmage and catching 29 passes with 10 total touchdowns as a true freshman. He took a step forward in his sophomore season, achieving a true breakout with 2.14 adjusted yards per play. While Spiller’s raw totals have been fairly consistent — at least 1,100 total yards, seven TDs, and 20 catches every season — he took a step back as a junior in terms of his share of the A&M offense. That is in part to splitting the backfield with the high-octane Devon Achane, one of the top RB recruits of 2020.
One of the more impressive parts of Spiller’s statistical profile is his consistent efficiency. He averaged over 5.4 yards per carry each year of his college career. Spiller did not have more than 188 carries in any season, calling into question his ability to be a true workhorse. Generally speaking, it is nice to have some evidence of this, though certainly never seeing it does not preclude Spiller from doing so in the future. His weight provides some optimism on that front.
What the Scouts are Saying
Daniel Jeremiah notes the potential versatility of a player like Spiller.
Spiller is an explosive runner with excellent vision and wiggle. On inside runs, he is decisive and aggressive attacking the line of scrimmage. He has outstanding stop-start quickness to make defenders miss at the second level. He does run a little high and is more likely to step through tackles than drop his shoulder and punish them. He has excellent speed and burst on perimeter runs. In the passing game, Spiller is very effective on swings and wheel routes. He is very sudden once he transitions with the ball in his hands. He has had some anchor issues in pass protection. All in all, Spiller is a dynamic player with value on all three downs.
Lance Zierlein disagrees on Spiller’s potential third-down role.
Volume-carry running back with good size and talent for starting consideration as a pro. He was slowed, at times, by inconsistent run blocking but was still productive and consistent for much of the 2021 season. He has interior vision and loose hips, allowing him to locate and get to run lanes regardless of traffic. Spiller runs with good elusiveness but stays in that mode a little too long, which can affect his ability to finish with authority. He’s a solid back but not overly dynamic and lacks the desired third-down value right now.
Draft Projection
Spiller currently has an expected draft position of 65.4 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. NFL Mock Draft Database, a similar service, has him 43rd overall. Dane Brugler did not have him as a top-two round pick in his second mock draft. Spiller is 33rd on Jeremiah’s big board, and 55th on Brugler’s. Spiller seems likely to be selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, with a seemingly wide range on exactly where that is.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate RB prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable RBs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
It is worth noting that Spiller’s seventh most-similar comp is actually fellow prospect Breece Hall, but while they have similarities, it is clear that Hall has a higher ceiling. Spiller lacks the Adrian Peterson/Ezekiel Elliott/Kareem Hunt immediate impact outcomes.
Spiller’s lack of a showing at the Combine pushes his draft position more towards the end of Round 2, and that adds a lot of uncertainty to his range of outcomes. Despite his excellent breakout age, there aren’t a ton of positive comps on this list.
