I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I decided to focus my cash game attention on FanDuel this week. I talked about it a bit on Tuesday’s Solo Pod, but the bottom line is I merely wanted to change things up. The scoring system (half-PPR, no bonuses) and pricing structure ($60K cap vs. $50K cap) certainly necessitates a change in strategy.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I place a bigger emphasis on quarterback (and especially rushing quarterback) when playing FanDuel, vs. DraftKings. That’s because overall scoring is lower, QB scoring makes up a bigger percentage of total score, and touchdowns are massively important. Talked about that a bit more over the summer in this Best Ball strategy article for DK vs. UD.
So while I really liked the cheap prices on Matthew Stafford ($6700) and Geno Smith ($7000), I was always playing Lamar Jackson ($8000) here. The wind narrative was overblown (no pun intended), as it typically is. And Lamar’s rushing creates a massive floor/ceiling combo. He’s better on FanDuel because there’s no 300-yard bonus.
* David Montgomery (ribs) was out and Craig Reynolds (hamstring, toe) came in banged up. We also had the Dan Campbell quotes about loading up Jahmyr Gibbs here. While I didn’t love the matchup and didn’t that the Lions weren’t on their much preferred home turf, the price on Gibbs ($6200) here was ridiculously cheap. Even if Gibbs struggled with rushing efficiency, his explosive big-play ability and elite pass-game chops kept the floor high.
* Kenneth Walker was very expensive at $8800, the 2nd-most expensive RB on the slate. But with Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) out and a home game against the Cardinals, I was not about to pass on Walker. He’s such a home run threat and we projected 20.2 carries in this spot, the ceiling was outrageous – and that included TDs as the Seahawks came into the game 21st in PROE when in the red zone.
* I almost never call a D/ST a “must,” but we had a perfect storm this week. The Giants were the fourth-cheapest defense on the entire slate at $3400 and facing Sam Howell who was on pace to shatter the NFL record for sacks taken. This game was also at home for the Giants, making it a bit more likely they could get a lead and force Howell into a ton of dropbacks.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Obviously Puka Nacua’s outlook is worse with Cooper Kupp back. But given all the RB injuries, a likely throw-centric gameplan, and the need to get the ball out quick against the Steelers pass rush… I still really liked Puka Nacua in a very tight target tree.
Nacua was a reasonable $7300 on FanDuel, a whopping $2400 less than Cooper Kupp and $1900 less than Keenan Allen. Players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kupp, and Keenan are tougher fades on DraftKings where reception volume and the 100-yard bonus mean a ton.
* I really liked this spot for Josh Jacobs. His usage and role has been identical to last year, he’s simply struggled with efficiency. Brian Hoyer starting wasn’t ideal, but I expected Jacobs to find that 2022 efficiency against the Bears. The only reason I didn’t consider Jacobs a “must” was because Jerome Ford ($6600) and Isiah Pacheco ($7400) were also very much in play.
* I didn’t think Tyler Lockett was a “must” before lock. But he was my favorite WR in the $6K range, and spending up at RB + down at WR is my preferred strategy on FanDuel.
Once DK Metcalf (hip, ribs) was ruled out around 230pm ET, I looked at a bunch of swaps to try to get Jaxon Smith-Ngiba and Tyler Lockett into my lineup. But there were no clean swaps, so I decided to stick with Lockett only. He would have been a “must” for me if we had the Metcalf news before lock.
* The last 2v2 I looked at was Zay Flowers and Luke Musgrave vs. Christian Watson and David Njoku. I knew that the Flowers/Musgrave side would be much more popular. We had the Flowers/Musgrave said 0.9 points ahead in projection.
I thought that with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones healthy for the Packers, Musgrave’s target share was a bit fragile. I also thought David Njoku was in a really strong spot against the Colts, and Njoku was $100 cheaper. Meanwhile, Zay Flowers’ low aDOT isn’t as strong on half-PPR FanDuel. So I decided to get a bit different and go with the Watson/Njoku side.
Week 7 Results
As I suspected a ton of people played my team except the Zay Flowers/Luke Musgrave side. So after the 1pm games, I merely needed Christian Watson to outscore Luke Musgrave by 1.6 points. That didn’t happen, which was extremely frustrating. Kenneth Walker also turned 29 opportunities in a home game against the Cardinals into just 12.1 points, which is a really poor result. He flubbed two chances from the 1-yard line.
That said, I’m really happy with the team I played. I do think Walker was the right play, even at the elevated price-tag. I do think Njoku/Watson was the right side of that 2v2. I didn’t think paying the extra $2400 to get from Puka Nacua to Cooper Kupp was worth it. So overall a tilting day to break even.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 107.62 points, won 5.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 140.22 points, won 49.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 124.98 points, won 51.2% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
