Dynasty Outlook
April 11
Luke Musgrave is our TE4 for rookie drafts and checks in as TE13 in our overall dynasty ranks. There is a bit of projection here with Musgrave, as he played just two games in his final college season — and saw little field time overall. With that said, he appears to have a sky-high ceiling at a position that lacks impressive options in the current fantasy landscape. His speed and diverse athletic background are outstanding, and he appears to have solidified his status as a Day 2 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Profile Summary
Musgrave has not seen the field as much as one would like, but he is still someone who the scouts seem to speak about in glowing terms. He ran in the 4.6 range at the Combine despite coming off of a foot injury, and he was explosive in jump testing. In today’s NFL — which prioritizes TEs who can play out of the slot and catch passes — Musgrave should be an intriguing option for many NFL teams. He is expected to be a Round 2 pick.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 22.3
Experience — 4 years
By the Numbers
Musgrave came to Oregon State with an interesting background, including track, skiing, and lacrosse. Statistically, his résumé is not terribly strong — mostly because he has not played a ton of games. Musgrave was utilized sparingly as a true freshman, and the Beavers only played seven games in 2020 due to COVID. He played most of 2021, but then only got in the first two contests of 2022 before succumbing to a season-ending injury.
In those two games, however, Musgrave was exceptional. He accounted for over 30% of the team’s receiving yards and TDs, and he averaged 3.3 receiving yards per team pass attempt. He may have been on his way to a truly special season. As a result of injury, we are left to wonder.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein mentions Musgrave’s background in slalom skiing:
Between the abbreviated 2020 season and an injury-shortened 2022 campaign, Musgrave’s snaps have been somewhat limited, but it’s easy to like what he’s put on tape. His route running harkens back to his slalom days with nimble feet and smooth hips helping to generate rhythm and separation in and out of breaks. He needs a little more bulk for combat in the trenches, but he offers what evaluators are looking for in technique, strain, and demeanor. Musgrave has starter potential and should gain a coveted slot on draft boards from teams looking to add versatility to their 12 personnel (two tight ends) packages.
Daniel Jeremiah describes Musgrave as a “home-run hitter”:
Musgrave is a tall, muscular tight end with elite play speed. Unfortunately, he missed all but two games of the 2022 season due to injury. He’s sudden in his release and is a weapon running down the seam. He pulls away from second-level defenders and can naturally high point the football. He is more of a home-run hitter than an option-route player at this point in his development. He is consistent catching balls on his frame, but he struggles to reel in low passes when on the move. After the catch, he has the speed to pull away. He is a willing blocker and can effectively shield/wall off at the point of attack. Overall, Musgrave isn’t polished and he’s missed time, but he has the potential to emerge as the top tight end in the class.
Dane Brugler provides a detailed look at Musgrave:
A two-year starter at Oregon State, Musgrave was a Y tight end in offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren’s run-heavy scheme, lining up both inline and in the slot. After two seasons as a backup behind two future NFL players Noah Togiai (Philadelphia Eagles) and Teagan Quitoriano (Houston Texans), he became a starter as a junior, but his targets were limited in the Beavers’ run-first offense and he missed almost all of his senior year because of injury. An impressive size/speed athlete, Musgrave runs like a gazelle (elite high school track numbers for his size), and his lacrosse and skiing backgrounds translate to football with his core strength and hip fluidity as both a pass catcher and blocker. He blocks with outstanding body control and leverage to be a physical edge setter and engages defenders at the second and third levels, although he still needs to improve his sustain skills and steadiness as a pass blocker (only 5.9% of his career snaps on offense came in pass protection). Overall, Musgrave must continue to build up his football résumé and overall consistency, but he is a high-level athlete with the route-running and blocking talent to be a productive starting combo tight end in the NFL. He should be the first-ever Oregon State tight end drafted in the top 100 picks.
Draft Projection
Musgrave currently is not listed on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. This year, it only lists the top 50 players. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Musgrave 47th overall. He went 45th in Todd McShay’s latest two-round mock draft. Musgrave appears to be a rock-solid Day 2 pick.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
When it comes to Musgrave’s comps, it is important to note that his 2022 shortened season is part of the data. That means there is an increased degree of variance in the results. With that said, the ceiling comps here are outstanding. Zach Ertz, Vernon Davis, and Mark Andrews have been elite TE options for fantasy in their careers. Greg Dulcich may well be on his way after a productive rookie season. We will see if Trey McBride can follow suit.
The rest are not particularly inspiring, but there is a consistent note of athleticism in these comps — matching up with Musgrave’s background. That is a big-ticket item right now at the position.
