NBA Matchups: November 8

 

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets

Team Totals: Wizards 119.3, Hornets 122.3

Injury Report: Terry Rozier (O, groin)

Wizards projected starters: Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford

Hornets projected starters: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, Mark Williams

Unseld quotes: Said he liked how Gafford was aggressive on defense early, said they were trying some new things on defense and most of it didn’t work, said he went to Omoruyi earlier to get some energy in there, said the offense isn’t the problem, said it’s not so much about getting defensive lineups out there and more about better play.

Clifford quotes: Said their rim protection is getting better and it starts with Mark Williams, said LaMelo has more of a scoring mentality than Jason Kidd (pre-Dallas game), said LaMelo is playing better defense and has been working hard at it.

Stats and Notes: 

*The game environment here is just so good. Of course, the Wizards are the worst defense in the NBA, including the worst defense in the halfcourt, the fourth-most rim points, the second-most C&S points, the fourth-most points in transition, and they’re the worst team against all jumpers per possession. Teams just smoke them with pace at 13.2 seconds per possession against the Washington defense for the fastest in the NBA, and the turnovers are setting up easy opportunities. Smashes are in play every night. The Hornets are also having some major issues on the defensive end at 26th overall, 24th in halfcourt, 23rd in rim defense, 23rd in PNR handling points allowed, and even 26th in C&S points allowed (20th in volume allowed). This Hornets team is quite bad defensively, and teams aren’t getting “bad” shots against them in the mid-range. As bad as Washington is, they have been able to score, and maybe the Hornets are worse without Terry Rozier.

*The matchups for Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma are quite strong. In the last game against Dallas, it was actually Gordon Hayward picking up the Luka matchup, and I’d expect Hayward to pick up Kuzma here. That is likely going to put Brandon Miller on Jordan Poole, which should also be beneficial for how Poole likes to get to his spots. Poole’s usage has ticked down a bit since his high-volume start, but the Wizards are just flying out there with his 107.8 pace, the fastest in the league (min. 27 MPG, 133 qualifiers; Kuzma second at 107.5). The matchup is slightly better for Poole, but it’s a really nice spot for Kuz, too.

*While Poole and Kuz are first in pace, LaMelo Ball is right behind them at 106.9. We finally saw the minutes cap come off LaMelo with his 39 against the Mavs, leading to his best stat line of the year with a 30/10/13 line against Dallas (23 drives and 23 potential assists, too). He’s likely going to see a decent bit of Tyus early, and we know the Wizards will want to put Delon on him. The pace of this game is right up LaMelo’s alley, and it could result in a massive outing. You have to love that Clifford called him more of a score-first guy to give him more ceiling, and no Rozier puts even more responsibility on his shoulders.

*Mark Williams just gets a huge spot. The minutes limit looks to be gone, and this matchup is just insane with how many monster lines Gafford has given up. He leads the NBA at an 81.0 FG% thanks to 71% of his shots coming as dunks. It could be a huge night for the Duke product.

 

Great matchups: LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams

Good matchups: Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, the rest of the Hornets, Daniel Gafford

Bad matchups: Nobody

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Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers (front end)

Team Totals: Jazz 119, Pacers 125.5

Injury Report: Walker Kessler (Q, elbow), Keyonte George (P, foot)

Jazz projected starters: Talen Horton-Tucker, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Walker Kessler

Pacers projected starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin, Myles Turner

Hardy quotes: Nada.

Carlisle quotes: Said it’s not a big deal that his team is scoring so many points, talked about his 900th win on Monday, said the whole team has been selfless, said their defense has to stay disciplined and it’ll help the offense, said they have to move the ball and can’t just walk up and take a 3-pointer.

Stats and Notes: 

*Another game with two terrible defenses. The Pacers are 25th in overall defense and the Jazz are 28th. With the Pacers having the best offense in the league with a decent bit of diversity to their offense, they’re in a huge spot overall. The Jazz, on the other hand, are struggling on the offensive end at 17th overall and 20th in the halfcourt. Digging in on Utah, they’ve been destroyed on the outside with the fifth-most C&S points and the 11th-highest 3-point frequency, but they’ve been decent around the rim — this was a trend for the second half of last year, too. Utah’s defense has run a little bad with guys making shots on them, but they just don’t have the personnel to guard players with a strong perimeter game. Plus, teams are toasting them in transition with their 24.5 possessions per game for most in the league. The Utah starting lineup is also the worst lineup in the NBA among the top 24 lineups for minutes. Indy’s D continues to be one of the biggest rim funnels at 49.0 per game (second most), the most possessions at the rim, and they’re even allowing the most PNR handler points per game. Just like last year, the Pacers really try to keep C&S in check with the fewest shots allowed on those and a tiny 16.0 possessions. On-ball guys and interior guys have been great matchups against the Pacers for years, and that’s not changing so far.

*This has to be a Lauri Markkanen spot, right? The Pacers will certainly be calling on Aaron Nesmith to pick up most of this matchup. Lauri’s ability to get to the rim on his own has transformed his game, and he should have the biggest role in this spot to jumpstart the Utah offense. Hardy is leaning on him to be a C&S guy, as he leads the league there, which is not great. Still, Hardy has to get him going here. Plus, no Kessler could help his ceiling on the boards.

*No Walker Kessler could open things up for John Collins. He’d pick up more on-ball screening, and his above-the-rim bounce should translate to this rim funnel.

*Tyrese Haliburton is just on a heater, which isn’t surprising after he was en fuego to close his 2022-23 season. Hali’s efficiency on drives has jumped to a 57.0 FG% (from 53%) with more volume, and his jumper is rolling. He’s fifth in C&S efficiency (206 qualifiers with his volume, #SmallSampleSize) and he’s fourth in off-dribble jumpers (top 24 on volume). He should light THT up and his team should run all over this brutal transition defense.

 

Great matchups: Tyrese Haliburton

Good matchups: Lauri Markkanen, John Collins (great if no Walker), Talen Horton-Tucker (big downside), Jordan Clarkson

Bad matchups: Ochai Agbaji

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Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

Team Totals: Celtics 115.3, 76ers 112.8

Injury Report: Derrick White (P, baby)

Celtics projected starters: Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis (Note: Boston has to start Horford for Embiid, right?)

76ers projected starters: Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Kelly Oubre, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid

Mazzulla quotes: Said it was a hell of a game against the Wolves and it was fun, said it was a blessing in disguise that they lost the way they did to the Wolves, said they did a good job taking away Ant’s tendencies throughout the game.

Nurse quotes: Said it was nice to get Embiid some rest late and he was ultra-efficient against the Wizards (48 points in 31 minutes is decent), said they liked how Embiid is playing as a roller to get a great look or FTAs, said he’s learning a lot about the players and the players are learning a lot about him, said Batum is “just a good basketball player” and he impacts the game in so many ways, said Batum will let him open up the playbook a little more, said they want Maxey to “punch it through” as a driver on offense.

Stats and Notes: 

*Big game. Per Cleaning the Glass, the 76ers have the best offense in the NBA and the third-best halfcourt D. Even after the Wolves clamped Boston on Monday, the Celtics are still third in offensive efficiency. Boston is also third in defense and the 76ers are seventh, so clearly these teams are playing well (the 76ers do have a softer schedule, though). Boston’s rim defense has been excellent to start the season with the fourth-fewest points allowed, but the place to attack them so far has been with ball-handlers with the fourth-highest PNR handler scoring per game. Boston has also given up a decent bit of spot-up shooting with the eighth most. Some of this is a little tied to schedule, but we’ve seen this Boston system limit interior scoring. On Philly’s D, it has not been a Nick Nurse-y D so far, as they have been able to limit 3-point shooting, but teams have been attacking the basket with the third-highest rim frequency in the league. However, Philly’s rim D per possession has been superb at a fourth-best 1.16 PPP, and they’ve been excellent with their on-ball D so far. Although, they are funneling off-dribble jumpers at 27.2 possessions per game to lead the league. The schedule is part of this, but so far, Nurse has his team in a great spot defensively, making this a tough spot to feel confident.

*Jayson Tatum is in an excellent groove on offense, shattering last year’s career-high 60.7 TS% with a pristine 66.8 TS%. While his usage is down, the Celtics are playing faster, so his shot volume has held up even with Kristaps Porzingis earning his usage. Last year, the 76ers put De’Anthony Melton on him more than anyone, and the 76ers were able to limit Tatum fairly well on the year (19, 18, 12, and 35 points in full minutes). Tatum looks to be matchup-proof right now after getting his against an elite defense, so I’d just throw all of these stats out. Thanks for reading, though!

*Kristaps Porzingis has been on fire to start the year. Among the 80 players with his possession volume, he ranks first in the NBA in halfcourt PPP at a ridiculous 1.31. It should help that the Celtics opt to start Al Horford on Embiid, which should insulate KP from the tremendous foul risk that comes with these bigs. It’s not going to be easy for him and I wouldn’t like him at all if they do bring Horford off the bench, but KP has been so good that he could produce in this spot.

*Joel Embiid gets his matchup against Al Horford, but Boston does lose one of their Embiid defenders with Grant Williams in Dallas. Last year, he was unfazed by these guys with a 37/12/4 line over 39 minutes per game (four outings). Embiid’s stats look pretty similar to last year, but the pace is noticeably faster and his minutes are down because of so many blowouts. His role is arguably better with increased assists, which is something that the organization has mentioned he should be adding to his game (yeah, just bet his assist over). He’s too good to let a good defense get in his way.

*Tyrese Maxey is almost certainly going to have to deal with Jrue Holiday here. He did not see Holiday in any of his matchups with the Bucks last year (Jrue either didn’t play or it was Harden with Jrue; Maxey usually got Grayson Allen), so we don’t have much to go on. As great as Maxey’s been, he’s run pretty good on the matchups with the Raptors using OG on Embiid to put Schroder on him, and his other defenders have been Tyus Jones, Malik Beasley, Scoot Henderson, and Josh Okogie/Grayson Allen. Maxey is shooting the hell out of it again, but I’d probably look elsewhere on this big slate.

 

Great matchups: Nobody (great defenses)

Good matchups: Kristaps Porzingis, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid

Bad matchups: Tyrese Maxey

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L.A. Clippers at Brooklyn Nets