Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 268-192, +$5,194 (through Week 16)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 317-197, +$9,709 (through December 28)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Dak Prescott pass attempts
Line: 31.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 30.3 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-108)
Date: December 28, 11:44am ET
Notes: Titans defense is banged up and Dallas is favored by two touchdowns. Prescott might tear Tennessee up early, but we don’t think he’ll need to throw much in the second half.
2. Ezekiel Elliott touchdowns
Line: 0.5 TDs
Mean Projection: 0.67 TDs
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 28, 2:58pm ET
Notes: Tony Pollard is out and Zeke should dominate goal-line rushing opportunities.
3. Chig Okonkwo receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: December 29, 12:32pm ET
Notes: We took this when we expected Malik Willis to start. It is likely still alright with Josh Dobbs under center since we don’t think the Titans will be able to get much going tonight.
4. Robert Woods receiving yards
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 29, 1:37pm ET
Notes: Woods has only cleared this number about half the time this year and there is a possibility his workload is lightened in a meaningless game for Tennessee. Plus, it’ll be a struggle to move the ball even if Woods plays all game.
5. Austin Hooper receiving yards
Line: 21.5 yards
Mean Projection: 19.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 29, 1:47pm ET
Notes: Same logic as the Woods play above.
6. Ezekiel Elliott receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.3 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+120)
Date: December 29, 7:24pm ET
Notes: Zeke may get more looks in the receiving game sans Pollard, plus we have full market agreement on this projection.
7. Desmond Ridder passing yards
Line: 181.5 yards
Mean Projection: 162.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: December 30, 11:56am ET
Notes: Ridder made some progress last week in terms of passing, but this game script projects to be more neutral and run-heavy for Atlanta.
8. Jared Goff passing yards
Line: 267.5 yards
Mean Projection: 296.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 30, 12:30pm ET
Notes: Goff is in a must-win spot against a horrible defense, while playing in the friendly confines of his home stadium.
9. Kenneth Walker receiving yards
Line: 13.5 yards
Mean Projection: 12 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 30, 12:38pm ET
Notes: Walker ran just 11 routes last week against Kansas City while DeeJay Dallas saw 29.
10. Aaron Rodgers passing yards
Line: 241.5 yards
Mean Projection: 269.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 30, 12:44pm ET
Notes: We currently have Christian Watson projected out, but still have a healthy over for Rodgers in this must-win showdown against Minnesota.
11. Kenneth Walker rush attempts
Line: 16.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 18.5 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-105)
Date: December 30, 2:57pm ET
Notes: Walker saw 26 carries last week while playing from behind against Kansas City.
12. JuJu Smith-Schuster receptions
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+120)
Date: December 30, 4:59pm ET
Notes: JuJu is 9-5 to the under on this and we get it at a great price.
13. Trevor Lawrence passing yards
Line: 238.5 yards
Mean Projection: 266.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 30, 6:22pm ET
Notes: This line seems to be artificially low due to concerns over rest, but we expect Jacksonville to play hard to maximize their playoff chances.
14. Christian McCaffrey receiving yards
Line: 25.5 yards
Mean Projection: 45.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: December 30, 9:49pm ET
Notes: McCaffrey is 6-3 to the over against this line as a 49er, and Deebo Samuel remains out.
15. Alvin Kamara rushing yards
Line: 61.5 yards
Mean Projection: 56.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: December 30, 10:00pm ET
Notes: Kamara missed two practices for non-injury reasons and has lost playing time to David Johnson.
16. Miles Sanders rushing yards
Line: 69.5 yards
Mean Projection: 88.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 30, 10:07pm ET
Notes: Philly is a sizable favorite against New Orleans, and Jalen Hurts remains out.
17. Rachaad White receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-105)
Date: December 30, 10:29pm ET
Notes: White has run cold on drive quality, but has been splitting 50/50 with Fournette for the majority of games.
18. Geno Smith pass attempts
Line: 31.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 35.1 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: December 31, 11:23am ET
Notes: Smith has cleared this number in eight straight games.
19. Kenny Pickett pass attempts
Line: 28.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 31.6 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: December 31, 11:29am ET
Notes: Pickett’s lack of efficiency has created excess volume — he is 6-3 to the over in starts excluding the Baltimore game.
20. Justin Herbert passing yards
Line: 286.5 yards
Mean Projection: 270.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 31, 3:39pm ET
Notes: Herbert has struggled with efficiency at times this year and all the projections sources we reference have him under.
21. Tyler Huntley passing TDs
Line: 0.5 TDs
Mean Projection: 0.85 TDs
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+182)
Date: December 31, 7:22pm ET
Notes: Huntley has been brutal as a starter and this shows as positive EV in our TDs model at big plus odds.
22. Nick Foles passing TDs
Line: 0.5TDs
Mean Projection: 0.95 TDs
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+190)
Date: December 31, 7:26m ET
Notes: Same logic as Huntley.
23. Jarrett Stidham pass attempts
Line: 31.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 32.5 attempts
Book: Widely available (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-105)
Date: December 31, 7:41m ET
Notes: Stidham may not be good, but you can’t run on the 49ers and game script should favor us here.
24. Carson Wentz passing yards
Line: 214.5 yards
Mean Projection: 196.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: January 1, 9:25am ET
Notes: We expect a run-heavy Commanders gameplan.
25. Patrick Mahomes completions
Line: 26.5 completions
Mean Projection: 25.5 completions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-111)
Date: January 1, 11:29am ET
Notes: Mahomes is 9-6 to the under at this line on the year and Chiefs are big favorites.
26. Jaylen Waddle receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.8 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+120)
Date: January 1, 12:00pm ET
Notes: Waddle could feast even with Bridgewater at QB against a depleted Pats secondary.
27. Teddy Bridgewater pass attempts
Line: 30.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 33.9 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: January 1, 12:58pm ET
Notes: Entire projections market has Bridgewater over and Pats’ defense is banged up.
