Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 58-43, +$921
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Ezekiel Elliott rush attempts
Line: 15.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 14.5 attempts
Book: DraftKings/Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+100)
Date: September 28, 1:11pm ET
Notes: Zeke continues to cede carries to Tony Pollard while Dallas’ pace has slowed slightly with Cooper Rush at starting quarterback. The rush attempts category has been very profitable for us, so we’ll continue to fire on anything we have a projection edge on at even money.
2. Devin Duvernay receiving yards
Line: 30.5 yards
Mean Projection: 28.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 28, 9:58pm ET
Notes: Duvernay has run a route on just 57% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks and caught 100% of the balls thrown his way. We’re expecting some regression after his hot start to the season.
3. Aaron Rodgers completions
Line: 22.5 completions
Mean Projection: 21.3 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 29, 8:51am ET
Notes: The Packers are massive favorites in this contest and have shown more of a proclivity to run the football.
4. Durham Smythe receiving yards
Line: 17.5 yards
Mean Projection: 14.9 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 29, 12:40pm ET
Notes: Smythe is splitting snaps and routes with Mike Gesicki, and this passing offense mostly runs largely through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
5. Tyler Lockett receptions
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 6.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+120)
Date: September 29, 12:49pm ET
Notes: Seattle’s offense has turned into a low-aDOT, high completion percentage attack under Geno Smith. Lockett and Metcalf continue to see a high percentage of the targets each week, and we like Lockett’s matchup against the Lions’ secondary.
6. Tyler Boyd receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.4 receptions
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+120)
Date: September 29, 12:54pm ET
Notes: Boyd is fifth on the Bengals in target share this season, we’re projecting above where he’s been in target share this season, and are getting plus-money on the under while still projecting slightly below the line.
7. Travis Etienne rushing yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 28.0 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-113)
Date: September 29, 1:42pm ET
Notes: James Robinson is the primary early-down back in Jacksonville and the Jaguars face a tough test this week against undefeated Philly.
8. Josh Jacobs rush attempts
Line: 14.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 17.7 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: September 29, 3:08pm ET
Notes: Jacobs has been the clear early-down option for Josh McDaniels, having handled 42 of 49 RB carries through three games. We’re anticipating a neutral or positive game script here for Jacobs as the Raiders host the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites.
9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.0 receptions
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 29, 3:36pm ET
Notes: CEH has caught all 12 of his targets this season and run fewer routes than Jerick McKinnon. The Chiefs are clearly looking to involve him in the pass game, but this is a high line for an RB running a route on less than 40% of Mahomes’ dropbacks.
10. Patrick Mahomes pass + rush yards
Line: 300.5 yards
Mean Projection: 283.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 29, 5:09pm ET
Notes: The Chiefs continue to drop back at an extremely high rate, but have been lacking explosive plays to start the season and now get a matchup against a strong Tampa Bay defense.
11. Jerick McKinnon rush yards
Line: 13.5 yards
Mean Projection: 26.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: September 29, 6:03pm ET
Notes: McKinnon has out-snapped CEH in the last two games and is seeing a similar amount of carries. Even against a staunch Tampa Bay front, this line opened too low.
12. Kareem Hunt rush yards
Line: 48.5 yards
Mean Projection: 41.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 29, 6:18pm ET
Notes: Hunt is the clear RB2 in Cleveland and continues to be more featured in the passing game. The Browns have been able to control game script in their first three outings and rack up the rush attempts, but we’re projecting them to regress slightly in the ground game.
13. Trevor Lawrence pass attempts
Line: 38.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 36.5 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 29, 6:37pm ET
Notes: This line is two attempts above where other books (FD, PointsBet) have Lawrence listed and we’ve had a strong record on pass attempts.
14. Patrick Mahomes completions
Line: 26.5 completions
Mean Projection: 24.4 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 29, 7:09pm ET
Notes: Pure projection bet as we are clearly under the market here on Mahomes, having already taken his pass+rush under.
15. Joe Burrow rush yards
Line: 9.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17.2 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: September 29, 8:03pm ET
Notes: Burrow has been running early on in the season and faces a Miami defense that loves to blitz and play man coverage, which typically inflates QB rushing output.
16. Alec Pierce receiving yards
Line: 32.5 yards
Mean Projection: 28.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 29, 8:29pm ET
Notes: Pierce is a high aDOT receiver who hauled in some big catches in Week 3. His median projection is even lower than his mean, making this an easy under bet for us.
17. Jimmy Garoppolo pass attempts
Line: 27.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 32.5 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: September 29, 8:49pm ET
Notes: Although the 49ers are a run-first team, this line is too low for Garoppolo.
18. Kyle Juszczyk receiving yards
Line: 2.5 yards
Mean Projection: 14.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-140)
Date: September 30, 8:26am ET
Notes: Juszczyk cleared this line in every regular season game in 2021.
19. A.J. Dillon carries
Line: 11.5 carries
Mean Projection: 14.0 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: September 30, 8:30am ET
Notes: The Packers are nine-point favorites, and Dillon is the back likely to see a heavy workload with a lead. He hit this number in both wins for Green Bay already this year.
20. Zach Ertz receiving yards
Line: 44.5 yards
Mean Projection: 40.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 30, 8:39am ET
Notes: Ertz’ efficiency has been down so far in 2022, and it looks like Rondale Moore will return in Week 4.
21. James Conner rushing yards
Line: 52.5 yards
Mean Projection: 54.8 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-117)
Date: September 30, 8:44am ET
Notes: We project a slight over here, but Conner’s efficiency and injury issues make this a strong under bet.
22. Dallas Goedert receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-165)
Date: September 30, 8:53am ET
Notes: Goedert has just 14 targets in three games, and his near 80% catch rate is likely not sustainable.
23. Tom Brady pass + rush yards
Line: 279.5 pass + rush yards
Mean Projection: 260.4 pass + rush yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 30, 4:29pm ET
Notes: Brady gets Mike Evans back, but the WRs still aren’t at full strength, which has led to a dip in both pass volume and pass efficiency.
24. Treylon Burks receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.1 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+116)
Date: September 30, 4:58pm ET
Notes: We like Burks as a breakout candidate, but this is a high line as a median. With Kyle Philips possibly back, we’ll take the plus money on the under here.
25. Rex Burkhead rushing yards
Line: 19.5 rushing yards
Mean Projection: 14.7 rushing yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: September 30, 5:04pm ET
Notes: With the team transitioning to Dameon Pierce, Burkhead has just 3 rush attempts the past 2 weeks.
26. Quez Watkins receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.0 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-155)
Date: September 30, 5:13pm ET
Notes: Despite playing on half of the team’s offensive snaps, Watkins has just 3 targets through 3 weeks.
27. Daniel Jones pass attempts
Line: 26.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 30.5 pass attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: September 30, 5:20pm ET
Notes: The Giants have a neutral PROE and a fast pace under Brian Daboll. We think this line is an overreaction to the expected game script.
28. Leonard Fournette receiving yards
Line: 27.5 receiving yards
Mean Projection: 27.0 receiving yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 30, 5:27pm ET
Notes: We lost this bet last week on the final drive but feel like this line is too high for Fournette’s current receiving role and efficiency (4.5 yards per target this season, 5.4 last season).
29. Justin Fields rush attempts
Line: 6.5 rush attempts
Mean Projection: 9.1 rush attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: September 30, 5:34pm ET
Notes: Fields has 8, 8, and 11 rush attempts through 3 weeks, and we expect that usage to continue.
30. Austin Ekeler rushing yards
Line: 59.5 rushing yards
Mean Projection: 59.1 rushing yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+106)
Date: September 30, 5:42pm ET
Notes: Ekeler has less than half the team’s carries through three weeks, and his rushing efficiency has waned.
31. Matthew Stafford pass yards
Line: 260.5 pass yards
Mean Projection: 244.0 pass yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 30, 5:47pm ET
Notes: Stafford’s efficiency is down a bit to start the season, and this game has a lower total than the Rams usually play in. Stafford was 2-1 against this line when playing SF last season.
32. Dameon Pierce receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.4 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+130)
Date: September 30, 8:02pm ET
Notes: Pierce seems locked in as the early-down back for Houston but ran just 9 routes on 33 Davis Mills dropbacks in Week 3. Rex Burkhead remains the preferred option in the passing game, making this an easy take at +130.
33. Kenneth Walker receiving yards
Line: 12.5 yards
Mean Projection: 9.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: September 30, 9:25pm ET
Notes: Walker ran just four routes in Week 3. Deejay Dallas is the Seahawks’ pass-catching back this week.
34. Juwan Johnson receiving yards
Line: 25.5 yards
Mean Projection: 24.1 yards
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-106)
Date: September 30, 9:35pm ET
Notes: A thin one as Michael Thomas is out. But Juwan is rotating a bit and we know there are plenty of 0s in his range.
35. Justin Herbert rushing yards
Line: 2.5 yards
Mean Projection: 12.4 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 30, 9:44pm ET
Notes: Yes, Herbert is nursing the rib injury. But he wasn’t on the final injury report this week and if he’s anywhere near full strength this is a total smash.
36. Harrison Bryant receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.1 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+136)
Date: October 1, 6:16pm ET
Notes: Bryant’s role is secure as the TE2 in Cleveland, having run a route on 45% of Jacoby Brissett’s dropbacks. He saw 4 targets each in weeks 1 & 2 but zero in Week 3, and we think this line is too far of an overreaction.
37. Harrison Bryant receiving yards
Line: 9.5 yards
Mean Projection: 22.1 yards
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 1, 6:16pm ET
Notes: See above note on Bryant’s role. We could be fools for taking two overs on a TE2, but we feel good about the projection and the gap here is too big not to take.
38. Greg Dortch receiving yards
Line: 34.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 1, 6:48pm ET
Notes: Rondale Moore is back for Arizona and we’re expecting him to supplant Dortch as the Cardinals’ WR2. Moore and Zach Ertz almost exclusively play from the slot similar to Dortch, so we’re expecting a big reduction in Dortch’s role this week.
39. Kendall Hinton receiving yards
Line: 13.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: October 1, 6:57pm ET
Notes: Hinton earned a decent role in Week 2 with KJ Hamler sidelined and Jerry Jeudy injured mid-game, and then operated as the WR3 last week with Hamler still banged up. Hamler is off the injury report this week and we are expecting him to retake the WR3 role from Hinton.
40. Andy Dalton rushing yards
Line: 11.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.9 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-111)
Date: October 2, 8:20am ET
Notes: Dalton has never been a big runner and is now 34 years old.
41. Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards
Line: 47.5 yards
Mean Projection: 45.1 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-117)
Date: October 2, 8:33am ET
Notes: The Patriots will have to lean on the ground game with Mac Jones out, but we still think Damien Harris is the favorite to lead the team in carries this week and the Packers are 9.5-point favorites.
42. Christian McCaffrey rush attempts
Line: 15.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 14.7 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-140)
Date: October 2, 9:07am ET
Notes: McCaffrey barely practiced this week (DNP-DNP-LP) and will reportedly be limited in today’s game.
